UKRAINE WAR ESCALATION
China and ASEAN make progress on South China Sea pact
The last major sticking points are the geographic scope to be covered by the agreement, the definition of sensitive terms and whether the accord should be legally binding or not, according to the three diplomats. They spoke on condition of anonymity and without elaborating because they were not authorized to discuss the issues in public.
India offers 3-part plan to de-escalate Ukraine war
India has proposed a three-part framework to Russia and Ukraine to help de-escalate the war, focusing on economic and maritime security. The proposal calls for a halt to attacks on energy facilities and critical infrastructure, uninterrupted grain and energy shipments through Black Sea ports, and an end to strikes on merchant ships, civilian crew and maritime trade routes.
Two Houthi missiles fired towards Riyadh intercepted, says Saudi-led coalition
Saudi Civil Defence had earlier issued an early-warning alert for Riyadh before the coalition announced the interceptions, later saying the threat in the capital had passed.
When wars and AI cast a shadow, India has pressed a power reset
India’s renewable energy expansion is reshaping its energy security, cutting dependence on imported coal and natural gas as wars, oil supply disruptions and AI-driven electricity demand put pressure on power markets. An International Energy Agency report says clean energy saved India over $100 billion in fuel imports between 2011 and 2025, with cumulative savings potentially reaching $240 billion by 2030.
Middle East oil price war heralds post-conflict glut: Bousso
The Strait of Hormuz has become a bustling corridor for Middle Eastern oil, with exports rising sharply since September. However, the ongoing constraints in demand and refining capacity alongside dwindling global crude inventories mean that producers are slashing prices to lure in buyers within a fiercely competitive arena. Analysts foresee a possible surplus driven by increased output from Gulf nations, and a stable peace could exacerbate market dynamics.
'Both sides working towards a deal': Qatar says PM remarks on US-Iran talks "distorted" online
Qatar said that PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani's remarks were "distorted" online, as several "fake accounts" claimed that the United States and Iran had failed to reach an agreement.
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Mecca pact with Pakistan creates uproar in Turkey parliament: MPs ask why risking Turkish youth for foreign governments' political ambitions
Türkiye has approved a defense pact with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia that commits to mutual assistance. This agreement may lead to Turkish support if Pakistan faces conflict with India. Critics in Türkiye have expressed concerns over the implications for national security commitments. The pact includes a ten-year clause preventing member withdrawal, which raises flexibility questions. Parliamentary approval is required before sending Turkish troops, but concerns about political pressure remain.
US midterms upended Congress but Trump still commands foreign policy
Following the Republican Party's recent electoral losses, President Trump's domestic influence appears to have diminished significantly. Despite these setbacks, Trump retains considerable freedom to implement his foreign policy agenda. Democrats are poised to seek increased oversight of Trump's actions, especially concerning Iran and Israel. Challenges may arise as Trump continues to navigate these international affairs amid growing scrutiny.
Donald Trump's political humbling after US midterms signals short-term gain, long-term pain for China
Donald Trump's US midterm election defeat could strengthen China's hand in upcoming US-China trade negotiations, giving Beijing leverage to push for tariff reductions and other concessions. However, Beijing remains wary of a potentially more hawkish US administration after Trump. China's concerns include Taiwan arms sales, a possible Iran war escalation, energy security and the future of its fragile trade truce with Washington.
Ukraine, US, Russia to hold working-level trilateral talks within a week: Zelenskyy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced upcoming trilateral talks with the US and Russia to discuss the ongoing war. The discussions with US envoys lasted for an hour and a half and focused on security and diplomatic efforts. A significant meeting in Brussels facilitated collaboration on Ukraine's postwar recovery and security guarantees. Meanwhile, Russia continues its attacks on Ukraine, prompting increased mediation from the US.
From Iran to trade, how the US midterms impact the rest of the world
US Democrats' recent midterm election victories could influence global relations, especially concerning Iran and Israel. The potential for a peace deal with Iran seems viable as US voters oppose prolonged conflicts. In Ukraine, Democrats may propose increased financial and military aid, which could face delays. Additionally, Asian countries may reconsider investment pledges to avoid tariffs in light of these outcomes.
US allies see a chastened Trump but they’re wary of the backlash
US election results are viewed as a potential limit on Donald Trump's power regarding foreign policies. Foreign officials remain cautious, predicting that Trump may continue to act unpredictably despite the political changes. The president's approach toward Iran may signal his handling of Congress's constraints on his authority. European leaders express concern over the implications for international relations amid ongoing conflicts.
Oil Price Today (November 4): Crude oil falls below $104 ahead of US midterm elections outcome. What are analysts saying?
Crude oil price : Oil prices experienced a slight dip on Wednesday as traders kept a close eye on the US midterm elections. Brent crude futures fell to $103.21 per barrel, with US WTI crude also seeing a decrease to $95.42. Despite an unexpected drop in US crude inventories, the unpredictable situation in the Middle East continues to influence market sentiments.
Oil edges down as investors await US midterm election results
Oil prices decreased due to investor caution ahead of the US midterm elections and ongoing peace negotiations. Brent futures and West Texas Intermediate crude both saw declines despite an unexpected drop in US crude stocks. Vote counting for the midterm elections continues, which may influence the Republican party's control of Congress. Peace talks in the Middle East were also impacted, especially involving the US and Iran.
Dollar dips with US midterm results in focus
The dollar lost ground against key international currencies as investors anticipated Democratic victories in the upcoming US midterm elections. With Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff's reelection in Georgia as a noteworthy milestone, analysts suggest a potential Democratic majority in both the House and Senate could alter future government spending policies. Meanwhile, oil prices are stable amid ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly those concerning Iran and Ukraine.
Gold firms on softer oil prices, US midterm results awaited
Gold prices experienced a modest uptick in early Asian markets, spurred by a decline in oil prices that has helped ease inflationary concerns. This shift is shaping investor expectations around potential actions from the Federal Reserve. Attention is also focused on the US midterm election outcomes, which could influence market volatility, while India's gold demand faces a projected six-year low amidst high prices affecting sales.
Trump set for midterm test: What's in store for India, Iran, Ukraine after November 4?
US midterm election 2026: American voters' sentiments about rising prices could affect Trump's standing in trade discussions. Congressional control will determine the scrutiny over Trump's actions regarding Iran and Ukraine. India will, however, continue navigating uncertainties in trade relations regardless of the election results.
US midterm elections today: Can Trump’s pain be Dalal Street’s gain? Analysts estimate impact in 3 possible scenarios
The United States will hold crucial midterm elections that could significantly alter the balance of power in Congress. Analysts are focusing on potential scenarios that could emerge based on whether the Democrats or Republicans hold the majority. These outcomes may impact critical issues such as tariffs, immigration, foreign relations, and even oil prices.
IndiGo, Indian Oil and other crude-sensitive stocks rally up to 4% as oil dips below $105/bbl. Where are prices headed?
Crude-sensitive stocks such as IndiGo, BPCL, HPCL and Indian Oil rallied up to 4% as oil prices declined for a second consecutive session amid US-Iran peace talks. Upstream stocks ONGC and Oil India, however, fell up to 2%. Lower crude prices typically benefit downstream companies by easing input costs and supporting refining and marketing margins.
US to hold trilateral talks with Ukraine, Russia in Abu Dhabi next week
Delegations from Ukraine and Russia will meet in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 for peace talks. The discussions seek to address ending the conflict, post-war security agreements, and humanitarian measures. American negotiators, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will represent the U.S. Recent U.S.-mediated talks have aimed at finding a breakthrough before winter arrives. Both sides reportedly remain far apart in negotiating a potential peace deal.
Oil Price Today (November 3): Crude oil rebounds to $105 as fresh attacks outweigh peace talks. What are experts saying?
Crude oil price : Oil prices experienced a slight increase following reports of a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. Concerns have risen regarding the potential escalation of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts upward, contemplating a possible future increase to $140 per barrel. Meanwhile, Tehran continues discussions with the US to seek peace despite ongoing military tensions.
Oil rises after report of US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island
Oil prices have surged in reaction to reports of a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island, sparking fears of significant supply interruptions. Previous drops in prices on Monday have been overshadowed by this escalation, reinstating a risk premium in the market. Diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the US, facilitated by Qatar, ended without notable advancement, while looming midterm elections exacerbate tensions in the Middle East, affecting global oil costs.
Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts, warns Brent could hit $140 in 2027
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts amid mounting geopolitical risks and potential Gulf supply disruptions. The bank warned Brent crude could reach $140 per barrel in 2027 under a prolonged supply shock scenario. Shipping attacks, infrastructure damage and Middle East tensions could sustain elevated oil prices and market volatility.
Charting the global economy: Central banks hold rates steady
Global central banks have opted to keep interest rates unchanged amidst growing inflation worries stemming from energy costs. While the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank signaled potential hikes during their December meetings, the US economy displays robust growth from business investments and consumer activity.
US, Canada see growing interest in limited ceasefire in Black Sea
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted the growing interest in a limited ceasefire in the Black Sea. He emphasized the importance of facilitating grain shipments while pressing for a broader settlement of the ongoing war. Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand confronted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about Russia's invasion of Ukraine during the G20 meeting.
'Took stock of our bilateral cooperation': EAM Jaishankar meets US Secy of State Rubio on sidelines of G20
S Jaishankar held a bilateral meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Atlanta. The meeting focused on enhancing India-US cooperation and addressing geopolitical issues. Jaishankar emphasized that military solutions are not viable for resolving global challenges. Rubio also highlighted the importance of protecting economic and maritime security during the discussions. The G20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting concluded with crucial dialogues on international economic stability.
World Bank sees commodity prices surging 23% in 2026 on Middle East war
Commodity prices were projected to rise 23% in 2026 as the Middle East war disrupted energy supplies and shipping, while grain disruptions and safe haven demand pushed food and metals prices higher. The World Bank warned that further conflict escalation and a severe El Niño could intensify inflation and food security risks.
A ceasefire in a Russian-occupied Ukrainian city holds for its first 30 hours, officials say
A six-day ceasefire has been initiated in Oleshky, allowing much-needed humanitarian aid for around 2,000 residents. Both Ukraine and Russia have reported no violations of the ceasefire in the first 30 hours. Negotiations continue for future discussions to de-escalate the ongoing war, despite both sides holding firm on key demands. Meanwhile, attacks have intensified elsewhere, including drone strikes causing injuries in cities like Kharkiv.
Russia's Lavrov says conflict in Ukraine will continue and is likely to escalate
In a recent statement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that the situation in Ukraine could worsen in the days ahead. He noted that European countries have failed to contribute new viewpoints on the issue. Lavrov also discussed a recent phone conversation involving President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of Finland and Norway, who are keen to actively participate in negotiations.
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