Oil Price Today (November 4): Crude oil falls below $104 ahead of US midterm elections outcome. What are analysts saying?

Oil prices declined half a percent on Wednesday as investors awaited the outcome of the US midterm elections and assessed their possible implications for Middle East peace talks. The losses came despite industry data showing an unexpected decline in US crude inventories last week.

Vote counting was underway in the US midterm elections, which will determine whether President Donald Trump's Republican Party retains control of Congress for the remainder of his second term.

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Crude oil price on November 4

Brent crude futures fell 40 cents, or 0.41%, to $103.21 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 67 cents, or 0.70%, to $95.42 per barrel. In the previous session, Brent crude declined more than 1% to its lowest level in nearly four weeks as traders assessed diplomatic efforts to end the wars in Ukraine and Iran.

Investors were also monitoring developments in efforts to end the US-Israeli war with Iran. Qatar has intensified its mediation efforts to prevent a further escalation in attacks following the US midterm elections. However, Reuters reported on Tuesday that Tehran and Washington remained far from reaching an agreement to end the conflict.

The United States conducted what it described as defensive strikes on Iran's Qeshm island, targeting surface-to-air missiles used against US assets, a US official said on Tuesday. Another official said the strikes appeared limited in scope and did not indicate a return to major combat operations.

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US President Donald Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that Washington had no immediate plans to launch further strikes against Iran. "We seem to be getting everything we want," Trump said during a six-minute telephone interview.

Where are prices headed?

Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts upwards, citing heightened risks to global supply, and warned that Brent crude could climb to $140 a barrel in 2027 if oil production in the Gulf region remains significantly below its 2025 average. The investment bank raised its December Brent crude price forecast to $105 a barrel from $90 earlier. Its projection for US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was also increased to $94 a barrel from $81.

In an upside scenario, Brent crude could reach $140 a barrel and average around $130 in 2027 if Gulf oil production remains 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average, Reuters reported, citing Goldman Sachs' projections.

The bank expects oil markets to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium, taking into account the possibility of disruptions to Middle East supplies, the historical duration of major supply shocks and concerns that a lasting diplomatic breakthrough may be difficult to secure.

Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the course of the conflict continues to cloud the oil price outlook. JPMorgan analysts said it remained difficult to assess how the war would unfold. At the beginning of the conflict, the bank had expected the US administration to avoid crossing certain economic thresholds. However, seven months later, several of those limits had been breached, with no clear strategy for bringing the conflict to an end.

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Veer Sharma and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here