RBI INFLATION FORECAST
Credit growth may ease after rate hike but remain strong: RBI
The Reserve Bank of India projects a moderation in bank credit growth from the current 19% level. This expected slowdown results from a recent repo rate increase implemented to manage rising inflation. Despite the decrease, it is anticipated that growth will remain strong enough to support overall economic activity. Lending to sectors like services and industry shows significant year-on-year growth, reflecting resilient demand.
RBI’s rate hike matters. Its shift to calibrated tightening matters more
The RBI’s 25-basis-point repo rate hike to 5.5% marks a shift towards calibrated tightening as inflation risks broaden amid elevated oil prices, weather disruptions and resilient domestic demand. With inflation expected to average nearly 5.8% over the next three quarters, the policy move signals scope for further rate increases.
A new rate game begins. What’s inside the RBI’s new playbook?
RBI rate hike in October monetary policy marks a sharp shift to calibrated tightening, raising the repo rate to 5.5%. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is prioritising inflation risks as crude oil, food prices and inflation expectations rise. Strong FY27 GDP growth at 7.1%, rapid credit growth and tighter liquidity give RBI room to act before supply shocks spread across markets.
RBI Policy: Complex oil math explains rise in FY27 inflation estimates
The Reserve Bank of India revised its crude oil price projections for the fiscal year 2026-27. This adjustment has led to increased inflation forecasts, now projected at 5.2% for FY27. The bank notes ongoing supply pressures and volatility in international oil prices contributing to these changes. India's merchandise trade deficit has also widened due to rising imports, especially in crude oil.
Markets can be irrational in the short run: What RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said as rupee nears lifetime low
The rupee neared its record low after the RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50%. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the currency may be undervalued, while analysts viewed the hawkish stance and higher inflation outlook as supportive of the rupee.
More RBI rate hikes loading? Decoding what Malhotra's 'caliberated tightening' stance means
The Reserve Bank of India has increased the repo rate to 5.50% after maintaining it for several months. This shift to a calibrated tightening stance indicates a focus on controlling inflation risks. Retail inflation rose recently, prompting the central bank to adjust its policy outlook for the future. While growth remains firm, inflation now takes priority in decision-making.
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RBI Repo Rate 2026: Why RBI MPC lifted repo rates for the first time in nearly four years in October policy
RBI Repo Rate: The Reserve Bank of India increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% after recent inflation concerns. Economic growth has exceeded expectations, prompting the central bank to adjust its monetary policy. Inflation risks are rising due to higher crude prices and weaker agricultural output affecting projections. Global interest rate changes and narrowing differentials also pressure capital flows and emerging markets.
RBI raises policy rates 25 bps to tame inflation as India hurdles growth barriers
The Reserve Bank of India has unanimously decided to increase the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points. This decision was made amid rising inflation projections and increasing US bond yields. The bank also revised its economic growth forecast for FY27 to 7.1%, indicating strong economic activity. Inflation is expected to reach an average of 5.2% through FY27, affecting consumer prices.
RBI Repo Rate 2026: Malhotra & Co hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% for first time in nearly 4 years as inflation pressures build
Repo Rate Hike: The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years, as rising oil prices, a weak monsoon and a weaker rupee threaten to push inflation higher. The move was widely expected by economists.
RBI has space for more rate hikes despite growth cheer
Quickening inflation, stoked by oil prices and El Nino, could force policymakers to harden further
RBI GDP Growth 2026: Malhotra & Co raise FY27 GDP forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%
RBI GDP Growth 2026: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its growth forecast for fiscal year 2026-27 to 7.1%. This adjustment comes after stronger-than-expected economic performance, including 7.8% growth in the June quarter. The RBI has also raised the policy repo rate to 5.5% while changing its policy stance to calibrated tightening. While domestic consumption remains resilient, global challenges and inflation concerns persist.
RBI MPC Key Takeaways 2026: Repo rate hiked to 5.50%, FY27 GDP growth forecast raised to 7.1%
RBI Monetary Policy 2026 Takeaways: The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, the first increase since February 2023. The GDP growth forecast for FY27 was raised from 6.7% to 7.1%, highlighting resilient economic activity. Meanwhile, CPI inflation projection was revised up to 5.2% due to rising food and fuel prices. The Monetary Policy Committee shifted its stance to calibrated tightening, emphasizing inflation containment.
RBI Inflation FY2026-27: Malhotra & Co raises inflation forecast to 5.2% for FY27
RBI Inflation 2026-27 Forecast: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.2% from 5.0% previously. This revision comes as retail inflation exceeds the RBI's target for three consecutive months. The rise in crude oil prices and food costs is a significant contributing factor. Additionally, a weaker rupee adds to imported commodity expenses and inflationary pressures. El Niño is also expected to impact food supply, further influencing inflation.
Rupee falls 22 paise to 96.57 against US dollar post RBI rate increase
The Indian rupee experienced a drop following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This move is intended to manage the surging inflation linked to ongoing geopolitical issues in West Asia. Market analysts interpret the RBI's shift to a more aggressive stance towards inflation as indicative of its commitment to economic stability.
RBI allows Sebi-regulated depositories to show bank deposit details in consolidated A/C statements; what it means for you
The RBI announced measures to enhance customer convenience, including allowing SEBI-registered depositories to include bank deposit details in consolidated account statements (CAS) and enabling interoperability among NBFC-Account Aggregators. Both measures will be operational by December 31, 2026. The central bank also announced a Technical Consultative Committee for Financial Markets to strengthen engagement with market participants and stakeholders.
RBI MPC Meeting at a Glance: Your one step guide for all decisions
RBI Monetary Policy Meeting Highlights: The Monetary Policy Committee has raised the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that inflation pressures are increasing and rate cuts are not expected soon. The Indian economy continues to show resilience, with GDP growth projected at 7.1% for the year. Inflation is forecasted at 5.2%, with core inflation expected to be around 4.4%.
India bonds inch lower before pivotal RBI decision
Amid the backdrop of escalating US Treasury yields and surging oil prices, Indian government bond traders are revamping their strategies. The Reserve Bank of India is poised to announce a key policy decision that may affect liquidity and inflation, with a 25-basis-point interest rate hike anticipated. Market sentiment remains cautiously tense as everyone awaits clarity on how this will shape the financial landscape.
RBI seen starting rate-hike cycle, repo could rise to 6% by FY27-end: Reports
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to increase the repo rate to combat rising inflation and support stronger growth. Reports indicate that a rate-hike cycle of 75 basis points is anticipated, potentially reaching 6 percent by FY27. While inflation drives this tightening, geopolitical factors could impact the extent of rate increases. ICICI Bank has raised its CPI inflation forecast based on core inflation trends and global developments.
RBI likely to hold repo rate in Oct policy, begin 50-75 bps hike cycle in Dec: BoB
The Reserve Bank of India is set to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% during the upcoming policy meeting. Despite rising inflation pressures and global economic uncertainty, the rate is expected to remain unchanged. Credit and deposit growth in India currently show strong performance, supporting steady rates. A rate hike cycle is anticipated to begin in December, amounting to 50-75 basis points.
RBI policy confronts a world with long tails
The RBI is likely to begin raising rates in October, with another hike possible in Q4 2026, as inflation risks broaden. Higher oil prices, weather shocks, weaker currency and geopolitical risks are fuelling imported pressures.
Markets bet on RBI rate hike as inflation pressure builds
As inflation concerns rise, investors are putting their faith in the Reserve Bank of India to implement an interest rate hike. A survey reveals that nearly 60% of economists believe a 25-basis-point increase is likely at the coming policy meeting. With an eye on foreign investment, expectations are growing for a tightening cycle to kick off in October, setting the stage for how future capital flows will be managed.
RBI likely to hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% in October policy: ET Poll
On Monday, the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee will hold important meetings. Analysts are anticipating a 25 basis points increase in the key interest rate, raising it to 5.50%. The surge in inflation is attributed to elevated crude oil costs and subpar agricultural production. Many economists advocate for a rate hike as a crucial measure to tackle ongoing inflation issues, with outcomes to be revealed on October 7.
RBI may increase rates by 0.25 pc in Oct policy amid inflationary pressures, experts poll shows
The RBI is expected to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in its October policy review as inflation pressures build from higher crude prices, the West Asia conflict and global monetary tightening, according to a PTI poll of economists and bankers. Most also expect a hawkish tone, a higher FY27 inflation forecast and possibly further rate hikes later in the fiscal year.
SBI Research sees CPI inflation at 5.65% in Sept, above 6.5% in Oct-Nov
SBI Research forecasts a rise in CPI inflation to around 5.65 percent in September. They expect it to exceed 6.5 percent during October and November. Inflationary pressures have broadened significantly since the last monetary policy meeting. Additionally, the weakening rupee poses further risks to economic stability. The Reserve Bank of India may adjust its GDP growth and inflation projections during the upcoming policy review.
CEA warns of looming oil and rate pressures in India’s H2, sees Q2 growth at 7.3%
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran noted that the second half of the fiscal year would be challenging. Rising oil prices and increased global growth risks create a tougher economic environment for India. The economy saw a 7.8% GDP growth in the first quarter, backed by strong indicators like GST collections and credit growth. Upcoming data suggested a GDP growth rate of around 7.3% for July and August.
Crisil lifts India FY27 growth forecast to 7% on strong H1 momentum
Crisil has raised its GDP growth forecast for India in FY27 to 7%, reflecting strong domestic demand. Resilient consumer spending and government investment are key factors supporting this growth projection. However, potential inflation risks from a strengthening El Nino and elevated energy prices may pose challenges. The Reserve Bank of India might respond with rate hikes to manage inflation pressures.
RBI may raise repo rate by 100 bps through H1 2027: BofA Securities
Bank of America Securities has revised its forecast for the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate hikes. It now anticipates a total increase of 100 basis points by mid-2027. The first hike is expected during the monetary policy meeting in October. Economic growth remains strong, while inflation risks are increasing, prompting the RBI to adjust its monetary policy.
RBI may face two hikes, one dilemma as repo rate is seen hitting 5.75% soon: Report
The Reserve Bank of India is projected to increase its repo rate by 25 basis points in October and December. Inflationary pressures, primarily from food and energy prices, are influencing this expected change. Nomura forecasts consumer inflation rising before gradually declining over the next few quarters. Economists predict this rate cycle might be relatively short due to potential consumption slowdowns.
RBI MPC October 2026: Sanjay Malhotra & co may raise interest rates to 5.50% as inflation broadens, poll finds
Economic experts predict that the Reserve Bank of India will increase interest rates at its upcoming meeting. This anticipated rate hike is largely due to rising inflation, which has exceeded the RBI's targets consistently. As central banks globally address inflationary pressures, India is under similar pressures regarding its currency. Nearly 60% of surveyed economists expect this action will occur in October.
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