RBI GDP GROWTH FORECAST
Credit growth may ease after rate hike but remain strong: RBI
The Reserve Bank of India projects a moderation in bank credit growth from the current 19% level. This expected slowdown results from a recent repo rate increase implemented to manage rising inflation. Despite the decrease, it is anticipated that growth will remain strong enough to support overall economic activity. Lending to sectors like services and industry shows significant year-on-year growth, reflecting resilient demand.
RBI rate hike to test housing affordability, premium segment seen more resilient
The Reserve Bank of India recently raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to curb inflation. This increase is expected to raise borrowing costs for banks, affecting interest rates on home loans. First-time and price-sensitive homebuyers in the affordable housing sector may feel the impact more significantly. Market experts anticipate that strong demand fundamentals will mitigate some negative effects. The overall housing market remains robust, especially in higher-priced segments.
A new rate game begins. What’s inside the RBI’s new playbook?
RBI rate hike in October monetary policy marks a sharp shift to calibrated tightening, raising the repo rate to 5.5%. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is prioritising inflation risks as crude oil, food prices and inflation expectations rise. Strong FY27 GDP growth at 7.1%, rapid credit growth and tighter liquidity give RBI room to act before supply shocks spread across markets.
More RBI rate hikes loading? Decoding what Malhotra's 'caliberated tightening' stance means
The Reserve Bank of India has increased the repo rate to 5.50% after maintaining it for several months. This shift to a calibrated tightening stance indicates a focus on controlling inflation risks. Retail inflation rose recently, prompting the central bank to adjust its policy outlook for the future. While growth remains firm, inflation now takes priority in decision-making.
RBI Repo Rate 2026: Why RBI MPC lifted repo rates for the first time in nearly four years in October policy
RBI Repo Rate: The Reserve Bank of India increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% after recent inflation concerns. Economic growth has exceeded expectations, prompting the central bank to adjust its monetary policy. Inflation risks are rising due to higher crude prices and weaker agricultural output affecting projections. Global interest rate changes and narrowing differentials also pressure capital flows and emerging markets.
RBI raises policy rates 25 bps to tame inflation as India hurdles growth barriers
The Reserve Bank of India has unanimously decided to increase the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points. This decision was made amid rising inflation projections and increasing US bond yields. The bank also revised its economic growth forecast for FY27 to 7.1%, indicating strong economic activity. Inflation is expected to reach an average of 5.2% through FY27, affecting consumer prices.
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RBI Repo Rate 2026: Malhotra & Co hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% for first time in nearly 4 years as inflation pressures build
Repo Rate Hike: The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years, as rising oil prices, a weak monsoon and a weaker rupee threaten to push inflation higher. The move was widely expected by economists.
RBI has space for more rate hikes despite growth cheer
Quickening inflation, stoked by oil prices and El Nino, could force policymakers to harden further
RBI GDP Growth 2026: Malhotra & Co raise FY27 GDP forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%
RBI GDP Growth 2026: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its growth forecast for fiscal year 2026-27 to 7.1%. This adjustment comes after stronger-than-expected economic performance, including 7.8% growth in the June quarter. The RBI has also raised the policy repo rate to 5.5% while changing its policy stance to calibrated tightening. While domestic consumption remains resilient, global challenges and inflation concerns persist.
RBI MPC Key Takeaways 2026: Repo rate hiked to 5.50%, FY27 GDP growth forecast raised to 7.1%
RBI Monetary Policy 2026 Takeaways: The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, the first increase since February 2023. The GDP growth forecast for FY27 was raised from 6.7% to 7.1%, highlighting resilient economic activity. Meanwhile, CPI inflation projection was revised up to 5.2% due to rising food and fuel prices. The Monetary Policy Committee shifted its stance to calibrated tightening, emphasizing inflation containment.
RBI Inflation FY2026-27: Malhotra & Co raises inflation forecast to 5.2% for FY27
RBI Inflation 2026-27 Forecast: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.2% from 5.0% previously. This revision comes as retail inflation exceeds the RBI's target for three consecutive months. The rise in crude oil prices and food costs is a significant contributing factor. Additionally, a weaker rupee adds to imported commodity expenses and inflationary pressures. El Niño is also expected to impact food supply, further influencing inflation.
India’s trade deals can boost jobs, attract investment: Commerce Secy Rajesh Agarwal
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal highlighted India's potential to grow its participation in global value chains. He noted that the current participation rate has increased significantly over the past decade. Agarwal emphasized the importance of free trade agreements with developed economies for facilitating trade and attracting investments.
Four horsemen of economic trouble? RBI governor flags the risks spooking the world
The RBI raised the repo rate 25 bps to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years, and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening. Governor Sanjay Malhotra flagged four global risks: West Asia tensions and volatile oil prices, tariff uncertainty, elevated bond yields and stretched AI stock valuations. He said these risks are clouding global sentiment despite resilient growth.
RBI MPC Meeting at a Glance: Your one step guide for all decisions
RBI Monetary Policy Meeting Highlights: The Monetary Policy Committee has raised the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that inflation pressures are increasing and rate cuts are not expected soon. The Indian economy continues to show resilience, with GDP growth projected at 7.1% for the year. Inflation is forecasted at 5.2%, with core inflation expected to be around 4.4%.
World Bank bumps up FY27 India growth outlook to 7.1%
The World Bank has increased the growth forecast for India's FY27 to 7.1% from earlier estimates. This revision is attributed to strong domestic demand and solid exports, despite global challenges. Growth is expected to moderate later in FY27 but rebound in the medium term. However, risks such as higher global oil prices and El Nino-related disruptions could impact performance.
RBI likely to hold repo rate in Oct policy, begin 50-75 bps hike cycle in Dec: BoB
The Reserve Bank of India is set to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% during the upcoming policy meeting. Despite rising inflation pressures and global economic uncertainty, the rate is expected to remain unchanged. Credit and deposit growth in India currently show strong performance, supporting steady rates. A rate hike cycle is anticipated to begin in December, amounting to 50-75 basis points.
RBI likely to hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% in October policy: ET Poll
On Monday, the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee will hold important meetings. Analysts are anticipating a 25 basis points increase in the key interest rate, raising it to 5.50%. The surge in inflation is attributed to elevated crude oil costs and subpar agricultural production. Many economists advocate for a rate hike as a crucial measure to tackle ongoing inflation issues, with outcomes to be revealed on October 7.
RBI may increase rates by 0.25 pc in Oct policy amid inflationary pressures, experts poll shows
The RBI is expected to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in its October policy review as inflation pressures build from higher crude prices, the West Asia conflict and global monetary tightening, according to a PTI poll of economists and bankers. Most also expect a hawkish tone, a higher FY27 inflation forecast and possibly further rate hikes later in the fiscal year.
India GDP forecast stays at 7%, uncertainty range remains wide: Economist Arvind Virmani
Economist Arvind Virmani has retained his India GDP growth forecast at 7% for the year, with an uncertainty range of plus or minus 1%, citing unresolved trade issues and global developments. He also backed a gradual shift towards cost-based UPI MDR after the subsidy helped establish the payments platform.
Fuel, finance shocks already hitting global economy; India better placed but not insulated: Neelkanth Mishra
Higher fuel costs and tighter financial conditions are significantly affecting global demand and capital costs. India is comparatively better positioned than many developed markets, yet it remains vulnerable due to imported energy. The high dependence on crude oil and foreign capital poses risks for India's growth amid global economic pressures. Global bond yields have risen, increasing pressures on mortgage rates and investment costs domestically.
SBI Research sees CPI inflation at 5.65% in Sept, above 6.5% in Oct-Nov
SBI Research forecasts a rise in CPI inflation to around 5.65 percent in September. They expect it to exceed 6.5 percent during October and November. Inflationary pressures have broadened significantly since the last monetary policy meeting. Additionally, the weakening rupee poses further risks to economic stability. The Reserve Bank of India may adjust its GDP growth and inflation projections during the upcoming policy review.
Finance ministry sees Q2 FY27 GDP growth at 7.3%, flags trade, crude and AI risks
The finance ministry expects India’s real GDP to grow 7.3% in Q2 FY27, above the RBI’s 6.4% forecast, but warned that global uncertainties could weigh on investment. US trade relations, tariff pressures, crude prices and the lack of an India angle in global AI developments are clouding investor interest.
CEA warns of looming oil and rate pressures in India’s H2, sees Q2 growth at 7.3%
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran noted that the second half of the fiscal year would be challenging. Rising oil prices and increased global growth risks create a tougher economic environment for India. The economy saw a 7.8% GDP growth in the first quarter, backed by strong indicators like GST collections and credit growth. Upcoming data suggested a GDP growth rate of around 7.3% for July and August.
Crisil lifts India FY27 growth forecast to 7% on strong H1 momentum
Crisil has raised its GDP growth forecast for India in FY27 to 7%, reflecting strong domestic demand. Resilient consumer spending and government investment are key factors supporting this growth projection. However, potential inflation risks from a strengthening El Nino and elevated energy prices may pose challenges. The Reserve Bank of India might respond with rate hikes to manage inflation pressures.
RBI may raise repo rate by 100 bps through H1 2027: BofA Securities
Bank of America Securities has revised its forecast for the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate hikes. It now anticipates a total increase of 100 basis points by mid-2027. The first hike is expected during the monetary policy meeting in October. Economic growth remains strong, while inflation risks are increasing, prompting the RBI to adjust its monetary policy.
RBI may face two hikes, one dilemma as repo rate is seen hitting 5.75% soon: Report
The Reserve Bank of India is projected to increase its repo rate by 25 basis points in October and December. Inflationary pressures, primarily from food and energy prices, are influencing this expected change. Nomura forecasts consumer inflation rising before gradually declining over the next few quarters. Economists predict this rate cycle might be relatively short due to potential consumption slowdowns.
HSBC expects RBI to raise repo rate by 50 bps in FY27 amid strong growth, inflation pressures
India's GDP growth in the second quarter of FY26 surpassed the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 7 percent. The growth prompted forecasts of gradual rate hikes, with expectations of a 25 basis points increase twice in FY27. Additionally, inflation is projected to hover above 5 percent due to various economic pressures. Rising oil prices are expected to widen the current account deficit to 1.3 percent of GDP in FY27.
Fitch raises India FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.4%, sees 25 bps RBI rate hike in October
Fitch Ratings has raised India’s FY27 growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.4% after the economy expanded 7.8% in the June quarter, demonstrating resilience despite the fallout from the US-Iran war. Fitch expects investment to remain a key growth driver and has forecast a 25-basis-point RBI rate hike in October to 5.5%, followed by another increase to 5.75% in early 2027.
Global agencies see India’s growth ringing louder; raise FY27 GDP forecasts on upbeat demand and investment sentiment
India’s FY27 growth outlook has received upgrades from the OECD, Asian Development Bank, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, with forecasts now ranging from 6.9% to 7.1% amid strong domestic demand, investment, services and exports. The revisions follow 7.8% GDP growth in the June quarter, though institutions flagged risks from geopolitical uncertainty, weather disruptions and rising inflation, with some expecting the RBI to raise interest rates.
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