CORE INFLATION INDIA
RBI finally gets uppity, takes a hike
In a proactive move to tackle soaring inflation, the RBI has raised the interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.5%. Despite facing obstacles like fluctuating energy prices, India's economy is projected to show resilience. The central bank's strategy is now one of calibrated tightening, allowing adjustments based on fresh economic insights.
A new rate game begins. What’s inside the RBI’s new playbook?
RBI rate hike in October monetary policy marks a sharp shift to calibrated tightening, raising the repo rate to 5.5%. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is prioritising inflation risks as crude oil, food prices and inflation expectations rise. Strong FY27 GDP growth at 7.1%, rapid credit growth and tighter liquidity give RBI room to act before supply shocks spread across markets.
RBI Policy: Complex oil math explains rise in FY27 inflation estimates
The Reserve Bank of India revised its crude oil price projections for the fiscal year 2026-27. This adjustment has led to increased inflation forecasts, now projected at 5.2% for FY27. The bank notes ongoing supply pressures and volatility in international oil prices contributing to these changes. India's merchandise trade deficit has also widened due to rising imports, especially in crude oil.
PepsiCo's fizz fades as GLP-1 drugs and activist investor Elliott's targets test its snack business
PepsiCo faces challenges in achieving its growth and margin targets due to rising competition and increased input costs. The company has seen a decline in its North American business, impacting sales volumes and market share. Healthier product offerings have been introduced in response to market changes and consumer preferences. Analysts predict modest revenue growth but express concerns about long-term recovery.
More RBI rate hikes loading? Decoding what Malhotra's 'caliberated tightening' stance means
The Reserve Bank of India has increased the repo rate to 5.50% after maintaining it for several months. This shift to a calibrated tightening stance indicates a focus on controlling inflation risks. Retail inflation rose recently, prompting the central bank to adjust its policy outlook for the future. While growth remains firm, inflation now takes priority in decision-making.
RBI raises policy rates 25 bps to tame inflation as India hurdles growth barriers
The Reserve Bank of India has unanimously decided to increase the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points. This decision was made amid rising inflation projections and increasing US bond yields. The bank also revised its economic growth forecast for FY27 to 7.1%, indicating strong economic activity. Inflation is expected to reach an average of 5.2% through FY27, affecting consumer prices.
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RBI has space for more rate hikes despite growth cheer
Quickening inflation, stoked by oil prices and El Nino, could force policymakers to harden further
RBI MPC Key Takeaways 2026: Repo rate hiked to 5.50%, FY27 GDP growth forecast raised to 7.1%
RBI Monetary Policy 2026 Takeaways: The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, the first increase since February 2023. The GDP growth forecast for FY27 was raised from 6.7% to 7.1%, highlighting resilient economic activity. Meanwhile, CPI inflation projection was revised up to 5.2% due to rising food and fuel prices. The Monetary Policy Committee shifted its stance to calibrated tightening, emphasizing inflation containment.
RBI Inflation FY2026-27: Malhotra & Co raises inflation forecast to 5.2% for FY27
RBI Inflation 2026-27 Forecast: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.2% from 5.0% previously. This revision comes as retail inflation exceeds the RBI's target for three consecutive months. The rise in crude oil prices and food costs is a significant contributing factor. Additionally, a weaker rupee adds to imported commodity expenses and inflationary pressures. El Niño is also expected to impact food supply, further influencing inflation.
RBI MPC Date and Time: Guv Sanjay Malhotra to share key update on repo rate, inflation & more; check when and where to watch live speech
RBI MPC Meeting October 2026: RBI officials are holding a three-day Monetary Policy Committee meeting amid inflationary pressures and rising crude oil prices. The repo rate has remained unchanged at 5.25 per cent for consecutive meetings after a series of cuts. Experts anticipate a 25-basis-point hike, potentially reaching 5.75 to 6 per cent in upcoming meetings. The Governor is set to deliver live MPC speech at 10 am.
RBI seen starting rate-hike cycle, repo could rise to 6% by FY27-end: Reports
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to increase the repo rate to combat rising inflation and support stronger growth. Reports indicate that a rate-hike cycle of 75 basis points is anticipated, potentially reaching 6 percent by FY27. While inflation drives this tightening, geopolitical factors could impact the extent of rate increases. ICICI Bank has raised its CPI inflation forecast based on core inflation trends and global developments.
On the right path of easing ease of biz
To strengthen compliance and reduce conflicts, reforming the Goods and Services Tax (GST) administration is essential. The GST Council will introduce initiatives to rectify persistent tax structure issues. India's energy sector remains excluded from GST, affecting economic progress and inflation rates. It's also vital to recognize states' contribution to tax revenue to preserve fiscal independence. Additionally, a portion of GST revenue could support urban municipal bodies in fostering sustainable development.
Godrej Consumer expects high-teens revenue growth in Q2 despite inflationary pressures
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd anticipates strong consolidated revenue growth in the upcoming September quarter. This expected growth is driven by high demand across various markets and portfolios. The company is adapting to challenges posed by rising commodity prices through strategic pricing and cost management.
RBI likely to hold repo rate in Oct policy, begin 50-75 bps hike cycle in Dec: BoB
The Reserve Bank of India is set to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% during the upcoming policy meeting. Despite rising inflation pressures and global economic uncertainty, the rate is expected to remain unchanged. Credit and deposit growth in India currently show strong performance, supporting steady rates. A rate hike cycle is anticipated to begin in December, amounting to 50-75 basis points.
Nomura sees IndiGo emerging stronger from fuel shock; initiates Buy with Rs 6,000 target
Nomura initiated coverage on InterGlobe Aviation with a Buy rating and a Rs 6,000 target price, implying around 20% upside from the September 30 close. It believes IndiGo’s low-cost model, large aircraft order book and expanding international network could strengthen its competitive edge despite elevated fuel prices.
$100/barrel crude on screen, $145/barrel in physical market: Kotak Securities sees two prices
Crude oil’s physical market price could reach nearly $145 a barrel even if benchmark prices show $100, as soaring VLCC shipping costs widen the gap, Kotak Securities’ Anindya Banerjee said. He expects India to remain protected by ample refining capacity and diversified supplies, while predicting RBI rate hikes in October and December as liquidity remains abundant.
RBI policy confronts a world with long tails
The RBI is likely to begin raising rates in October, with another hike possible in Q4 2026, as inflation risks broaden. Higher oil prices, weather shocks, weaker currency and geopolitical risks are fuelling imported pressures.
Marico’s core franchises expected to power a strong Q2 as FMCG demand holds firm
Marico expects to achieve a double-digit revenue growth in the second quarter of FY27. This growth will be driven by strong domestic demand and improvements in premium and digital-first businesses. The company is benefiting from favorable copra prices that are likely to enhance profit margins. Marico's first-half performance indicates it might exceed its near-term financial guidance. Companies in the consumer goods market are managing resilient demand against fluctuating inflationary pressures.
RBI MPC begins 3-day meeting today amid expectations of first rate hike since 2023
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee is meeting to discuss potential interest rate hikes. Inflationary pressures and external factors are leading to anticipation of a rate increase. Analysts expect a 25 basis points hike in the upcoming policy announcement. This decision aligns with current inflation trends and economic forecasts for the country. The market is closely monitoring these developments as they will impact future economic stability.
RBI may hike repo rate by 25 bps as inflation and oil risks mount: Sunil Sanghai
The RBI could raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in October and signal further tightening as inflation, elevated crude prices and a narrowing rate gap with the US pressure the rupee. Strong reserves and a manageable current account provide crucial buffers.
RBI may increase rates by 0.25 pc in Oct policy amid inflationary pressures, experts poll shows
The RBI is expected to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in its October policy review as inflation pressures build from higher crude prices, the West Asia conflict and global monetary tightening, according to a PTI poll of economists and bankers. Most also expect a hawkish tone, a higher FY27 inflation forecast and possibly further rate hikes later in the fiscal year.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Rupee under pressure, inflation sticky: Will RBI be forced to rethink rates? Ankita Pathak, Ionic Asset
With the Fed entering a tightening cycle, India faces a tougher monetary policy trade-off as the rupee remains under pressure and inflation shows signs of broadening. Ankita Pathak of Ionic Asset says RBI’s policy flexibility could narrow, while elevated US yields and a stronger dollar may weigh on Indian equities and capital flows.
Bitcoin holds near $84,000 as strong ETF inflows support recovery, spot demand moderates
Bitcoin traded near $84,000 as institutional demand, ETF flows and softer US inflation data supported sentiment, while elevated Treasury yields and cautious spot demand limited gains. Analysts highlighted $82,000-$82,500 support and US jobs data as key near-term catalysts.
8 weeks, 2,149 points gone: Nifty’s longest losing streak in 25 years raises bear market fears
The Nifty’s record losing streak has deepened as foreign investor outflows, elevated US bond yields, and geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment. Analysts say markets remain sensitive to developments in the US-Iran conflict and crude prices, despite resilient domestic growth. Technicals point to a weak near-term outlook.
RBI’s wait and watch phase is over as inflation demands a rate hike
RBI has maintained its policy rate at 5.25% but is facing significant inflation pressures. Retail inflation has risen above the target of 4%, indicating the need for action. Food and fuel inflation are increasing, contributing to overall economic effects. Additionally, external factors, including global interest rates, add to the urgency for a rate hike. Thus, effective monetary policy adjustments are crucial in the current economic context.
India business confidence rises 8% in September despite global headwinds: ASSOCHAM
India's business landscape showed remarkable resilience as confidence levels surged by 5.6% in the first half of FY27 according to the ASSOCHAM Business Confidence Index. Spanning from April to September 2026, the index illustrates notable growth even in the face of persistent challenges like inflation and rupee depreciation, especially in July, August, and September.
RBI may face two hikes, one dilemma as repo rate is seen hitting 5.75% soon: Report
The Reserve Bank of India is projected to increase its repo rate by 25 basis points in October and December. Inflationary pressures, primarily from food and energy prices, are influencing this expected change. Nomura forecasts consumer inflation rising before gradually declining over the next few quarters. Economists predict this rate cycle might be relatively short due to potential consumption slowdowns.
Rising oil prices, inflation to create headwinds for India's economic growth: BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas expects India’s economic outlook to come under greater pressure as higher crude prices, rising inflation and weaker rural and industrial indicators weigh on growth. While credit growth, auto sales and food-grain stocks remain supportive, the brokerage says elevated oil prices could also leave the RBI with less room to keep interest rates unchanged.
HSBC expects RBI to raise repo rate by 50 bps in FY27 amid strong growth, inflation pressures
India's GDP growth in the second quarter of FY26 surpassed the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 7 percent. The growth prompted forecasts of gradual rate hikes, with expectations of a 25 basis points increase twice in FY27. Additionally, inflation is projected to hover above 5 percent due to various economic pressures. Rising oil prices are expected to widen the current account deficit to 1.3 percent of GDP in FY27.
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