WEST ASIA CONFLICT IMPACT
India resilient amid oil shock, may grow 6.8%-7.1% despite global headwinds: SBI Research
India faces global challenges from a strong position. Economic growth is projected between 6.8% and 7.1% for FY27. The nation's banking sector is robust. Opportunities arise for GIFT City and Indian airports. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain its current monetary policy stance. India's resilience is evident amidst regional conflict and global uncertainties.
India LPG consumption slides 13% amid West Asia conflict
India's LPG consumption plummeted by 13% in March due to West Asia conflict-induced supply disruptions. Despite government efforts to boost domestic production and meet household demand, commercial and bulk sales saw significant drops. However, overall LPG consumption for the fiscal year ending March 2026 still registered a 6% increase.
As Male faces stress, India weighs currency swap extension
India is reviewing the Maldives' plea for an extended currency swap facility. The island nation faces significant economic strain, compounded by regional conflicts. While India has previously offered substantial financial aid, current regulations present hurdles to fulfilling this latest request. A denial could further strain the Maldives' finances in the near future. Major debt repayments are also looming.
'Want to see Strait of Hormuz opened; no privatisation, no tolls': Australian PM Anthony Albanese
In a post on X, following his participation in a virtual Leaders' Summit on the Strait of Hormuz co-hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Albanese said 49 countries had come together with a "consistent approach" focused on ensuring freedom of navigation.
Narendra Modi chairs key CCS, Cabinet meetings in Parliament
Prime Minister Narendra Modi led a crucial cabinet meeting in New Delhi. Discussions focused on economic affairs and security measures. The government reviewed steps to ensure the availability of essential goods like petroleum products, fertilizers, and electricity. The impact of the West Asia conflict on India's economy was also assessed.
Prolonged West Asia conflict to impact India's automobile sector, says FADA President
The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations warns of potential challenges for India's auto sector. A prolonged conflict in West Asia could impact vehicle exports and the supply of crucial commodities like oil and aluminium. While the domestic market shows resilience, industry leaders are closely monitoring global developments.
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India’s current account deficit may rise to 2% of GDP in FY27 if oil stays at $82–87: CRISIL
Rising oil prices could push India's current account deficit to a concerning two percent of GDP, as highlighted by a Crisil report. This prediction hinges on the volatile global market conditions we’re currently facing. While US tariff reductions may bolster exports to some extent, the ongoing unrest in West Asia is another pivotal aspect that could affect the situation.
Banks' gross NPA's to stay range-bound at 2.0-2.2 per cent by March 2027 despite West Asia risks: Crisil
Indian banks are likely to keep asset quality under control over the next two years, with gross non-performing assets (NPAs) projected at 2.0-2.2 per cent by March 2027, only a shade higher than the estimated historic low of 2.0 per cent as of March 2026, according to ratingas agency Crisil Ratings. The resilience will be led by strong corporate balance sheets, even as the MSME segment faces pressure from the ongoing West Asia conflict.
Sri Lanka among worst impacted countries in Asia-Pacific due to West Asia conflict: UN report
In light of the West Asia crisis, a recent UN report underscores the profound economic challenges facing Sri Lanka. The country is grappling with dwindling export connections to the Gulf, while migrant workers are leaving for the Middle East in droves. Tourist footfall has experienced a significant decline, and the ramifications are dire, particularly for the tea export sector.
Labour-intensive sectors see steep fall in exports in March
The fiscal year 2026 brought a mixed bag for India's exports. On one hand, engineering goods, electronics, and pharmaceuticals excelled, driving growth. On the flip side, textiles and gems were hampered by market fluctuations. Disruptions in West Asia's trade routes complicated logistics, affecting shipments significantly. Interestingly, electronics imports surged, crossing the $100 billion threshold.
West Asia conflict hits tourism, aviation: PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry flags 15-20%
The ongoing conflict in West Asia is casting a long shadow over India's tourism and aviation sectors. Tourist arrivals have plummeted, prompting airlines to alter their routes, which in turn raises both fares and journey durations. The hospitality industry is feeling the strain as well, with many restaurants shutting down and significant losses reported.
India, Austria seal 15 deals across defence, counter-terrorism, tech and trade
India and Austria have signed fifteen agreements. These cover defence, technology, innovation, and trade. A Joint Working Group will combat cross-border terrorism. The agreements aim to boost cooperation in defence and counter-terrorism. Both nations also agreed on peaceful conflict resolution. Austrian expertise will enhance Indian infrastructure projects. Partnerships will strengthen in defence, semiconductors, and biotechnology.
West Asia conflict disrupts aviation, leads to 15–20% dip in inbound tourist traffic; Rs. 18,000 crore net loss for industry: PHDCCI report
India's vibrant tourism and hospitality sector is currently reeling from the impact of conflicts in West Asia. With inbound tourist arrivals plummeting and flight paths being heavily affected, the industry is facing unprecedented financial strain. In response, there is a call for innovative policy changes to enhance stability and broaden the range of tourism experiences.
EXIM Bank says repayments unaffected by West Asia conflict
EXIM Bank of India reports no impact on client repayments from the Middle East conflict. Indian companies in the region, primarily in construction, may see business affected. While current repayments are strong, prolonged conflict could pose challenges. Project awards and execution timelines might be impacted. However, reconstruction efforts could bring future opportunities. Rupee depreciation benefits EXIM Bank's balance sheet.
Military conflict cannot resolve problems: PM Modi on West Asia, Ukraine
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Austrian Chancellor Christian Stocker met in New Delhi. They agreed that military conflict cannot solve problems. Both leaders support stable and lasting peace in Ukraine and West Asia. The Austrian Chancellor's visit is expected to boost trade and investment between India and Austria. A new chapter has begun in India-EU relations following the historic FTA.
Global debt to hit post-World War II levels by 2029, IMF says; warns of rising fiscal strain amid West Asia war
Global public debt is set to surpass 100% of GDP by 2029. This level has not been seen since after World War II. Repeated economic shocks are straining government finances worldwide. Policymakers face challenges balancing fiscal credibility with supporting vulnerable populations. Supply disruptions for key products are being closely watched for their economic impact.
IMF’s Georgieva sees no risk of sharp downturn in India, flags financial sector as key watchpoint
India's economy shines brightly amidst global uncertainty. Growth is projected to be more than double the world's average. This strong performance is driven by stable economic conditions and consistent domestic demand. The International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted these robust fundamentals. There are no signs of a significant slowdown in India's growth path.
Attacks on merchant shipping completely unacceptable, says Jaishankar amid West Asia situation
India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has strongly backed safe and unimpeded maritime shipping. He stated that attacks on merchant vessels are unacceptable. This comes as India engages diplomatically on the West Asia conflict. The minister also highlighted India's commitment to energy market supply chain resilience. India is closely monitoring developments in the region.
Crude unlikely to return to pre-war levels soon; India's import bill may rise $70bn annually: Report
India's oil import bill is set to surge by over $70 billion annually as crude oil prices remain high due to the West Asia conflict. Shipping routes are critical and remain uncertain. Refineries are damaged, and rebuilding will take time. Freight and insurance costs have also increased. India will diversify import sources.
Dubai realty shaken from West Asia conflict but holds its ground
Real estate transactions in Dubai fell 14% in early April amid the West Asia conflict, with buyer sentiment hit and rental demand sharply declining. Smaller developers offered discounts and flexible plans, while prices largely held. Though enquiries have picked up after a ceasefire, deals may take time. Experts say demand remains structurally strong, but prolonged tensions could trigger further price corrections and slower market activity.
West Asia conflict: India's soybean meal exports fall 63%
India’s soybean meal exports dropped nearly 63% to 60,000 tonnes in March, hit by high domestic prices and disruptions from the West Asia conflict, according to Soybean Processors Association of India. Shipments to key markets like Iran and the UAE were affected. However, domestic demand stayed strong, with consumption rising to six lakh tonnes, supported by the animal feed industry.
US-Iran conflict: Chinese President Xi calls to respect sovereignty of all countries in West Asia, Gulf Region
President Xi Jinping of China has urged respect for the sovereignty and security of West Asian and Gulf nations. He called for a sustainable security framework and adherence to international law. This comes as the UAE Crown Prince visits China amid regional conflicts. China advocates for an end to hostilities and unimpeded passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Fuel shock has mild impact on India's inflation, pressures may rise if West Asia conflict persists: Crisil
India's retail inflation has shown limited impact from the West Asia conflict's energy price surge, with government measures cushioning consumers. Despite rising global crude and gas prices, domestic inflation remained subdued in March, though future risks from prolonged conflict and weather conditions are noted.
India Inc pulls back a bit from Gulf as cracks widen across operations
Indian consumer companies are scaling back West Asian operations due to steep losses and a fivefold surge in container costs amid the US-Israel-Iran war. Expansion plans are on hold as some businesses see up to a 40% decline, with mass consumers leaving the region.
West Asia war to hit growth, trigger cascading impact: World Bank President Banga
The World Bank warns of significant global economic fallout from the West Asia conflict. Even a ceasefire will cause disruptions. If the war escalates, the impact on growth and inflation will be severe. Developing nations face increased debt burdens and energy cost challenges. The bank is exploring crisis response funds and advising caution on energy subsidies.
Global growth to slow to 3.2% in 2026, amid largest energy shock on record due to West Asia crisis: S&P
The ongoing conflicts in West Asia have triggered an unprecedented energy crisis, significantly affecting shipping lanes, energy distribution, and international trade.
West Asia crisis: EAM Jaishankar calls for swift return to peace
In response to the unrest in West Asia, India has articulated its urgent desire for peace. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar conveyed his worries about the continuing conflict and its implications for global commerce. He noted the dire economic repercussions, especially concerning energy, food supplies, and fertilizer availability. India envisions a future of lasting harmony for the region.
Crisil warns of potential hit to India remittances amid West Asia conflict
India's remittance flow faces potential impact from the West Asia conflict. A third of diaspora inflows originate from Gulf Cooperation Council countries. A reduction in diaspora incomes could affect India's current account deficit. This comes at a time when the trade deficit is already under pressure. India is the world's largest beneficiary of remittances.
Global growth to slow to 3.2% in 2026, amid largest energy shock on record due to West Asia crisis: S&P Global
Global economic growth faces a slowdown to 3.2 percent in 2026. The West Asia conflict is causing the largest energy shock on record. Shipping, energy supply, and trade are impacted. Oil production and key infrastructure face disruptions. Europe and Asia, net energy importers, will see higher costs. This situation significantly alters the global economic outlook.
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