OIL PRICE VOLATILITY
RBI’s rate hike matters. Its shift to calibrated tightening matters more
The RBI’s 25-basis-point repo rate hike to 5.5% marks a shift towards calibrated tightening as inflation risks broaden amid elevated oil prices, weather disruptions and resilient domestic demand. With inflation expected to average nearly 5.8% over the next three quarters, the policy move signals scope for further rate increases.
RBI Policy: Complex oil math explains rise in FY27 inflation estimates
The Reserve Bank of India revised its crude oil price projections for the fiscal year 2026-27. This adjustment has led to increased inflation forecasts, now projected at 5.2% for FY27. The bank notes ongoing supply pressures and volatility in international oil prices contributing to these changes. India's merchandise trade deficit has also widened due to rising imports, especially in crude oil.
RBI may hike interest rate further in December policy: Experts
The Reserve Bank of India has shifted its policy stance to calibrated tightening amid rising inflation concerns. A rate hike of up to 50 basis points is anticipated in December, increasing the current benchmark rate. Various economists emphasize the likelihood of cumulative rate increases over the next months. Rising commodity prices and global market volatility are influencing these monetary policy decisions.
RBI MPC Key Takeaways 2026: Repo rate hiked to 5.50%, FY27 GDP growth forecast raised to 7.1%
RBI Monetary Policy 2026 Takeaways: The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, the first increase since February 2023. The GDP growth forecast for FY27 was raised from 6.7% to 7.1%, highlighting resilient economic activity. Meanwhile, CPI inflation projection was revised up to 5.2% due to rising food and fuel prices. The Monetary Policy Committee shifted its stance to calibrated tightening, emphasizing inflation containment.
RBI Inflation FY2026-27: Malhotra & Co raises inflation forecast to 5.2% for FY27
RBI Inflation 2026-27 Forecast: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.2% from 5.0% previously. This revision comes as retail inflation exceeds the RBI's target for three consecutive months. The rise in crude oil prices and food costs is a significant contributing factor. Additionally, a weaker rupee adds to imported commodity expenses and inflationary pressures. El Niño is also expected to impact food supply, further influencing inflation.
Four horsemen of economic trouble? RBI governor flags the risks spooking the world
The RBI raised the repo rate 25 bps to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years, and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening. Governor Sanjay Malhotra flagged four global risks: West Asia tensions and volatile oil prices, tariff uncertainty, elevated bond yields and stretched AI stock valuations. He said these risks are clouding global sentiment despite resilient growth.
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Bank stocks lift Indian markets as crude prices ease, RBI decision eyed
The Indian stock markets saw an upswing fueled by the performance of banking stocks amid falling oil prices. The Sensex and Nifty enjoyed substantial rises, as market participants eagerly anticipated the upcoming Reserve Bank of India monetary policy decision. Key players like Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank reported strong quarterly figures, lifting investor mood.
World Bank bumps up FY27 India growth outlook to 7.1%
The World Bank has increased the growth forecast for India's FY27 to 7.1% from earlier estimates. This revision is attributed to strong domestic demand and solid exports, despite global challenges. Growth is expected to moderate later in FY27 but rebound in the medium term. However, risks such as higher global oil prices and El Nino-related disruptions could impact performance.
Govt may consider ATF price stabilisation fund for airlines amid soaring fuel costs
Amid increasing jet fuel prices, the Indian government is exploring options to stabilize aviation turbine fuel costs. The discussions involve airlines and oil marketing companies due to the impact of geopolitical tensions. Recently, IndiGo announced a rise in fuel surcharges for their flights resulting from volatile ATF pricing. The Federation of Indian Airlines requested a review of the jet fuel pricing formula to alleviate financial pressure.
Global Market: Gulf oil flows rebound to 81% of pre-war levels in September
Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered to 81% of pre-war levels in September, supported by a sharp rebound in Saudi Arabian exports. Crude and condensate shipments reached 91% of pre-war levels, while refined fuel exports remained weaker. Volatile daily flows, however, raise questions over the sustainability of the recovery.
Govt eyes Made-in-India civil aircraft in 2 years; discusses high jet fuel prices with airlines, OMCs: Naidu
India could have its first indigenous civilian aircraft within two years through a joint venture, Civil Aviation Minister K Rammohan Naidu said. With airlines ordering over 1,600 aircraft and more airports planned, the government is also exploring domestic engine manufacturing. Meanwhile, West Asia tensions are driving higher jet fuel costs, pressuring airlines.
Broadening rally in stocks hits an economic roadblock
Elevated oil prices and surging bond yields are narrowing Wall Street’s rally, leaving investors concentrated in AI-related stocks while broader market participation weakens. Strong economic and earnings growth offers support, but a widening gap between bond and equity volatility signals that stocks could face sharper swings ahead.
RBI policy confronts a world with long tails
The RBI is likely to begin raising rates in October, with another hike possible in Q4 2026, as inflation risks broaden. Higher oil prices, weather shocks, weaker currency and geopolitical risks are fuelling imported pressures.
Industry body urges cooking oil firms to pass on import duty cut to consumers as festive season nears
Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association calls on companies to reduce retail prices following recent government duty cuts. The duty reductions aim to provide consumers relief during the approaching festive season when demand rises. Companies are expected to submit their retail pricing weekly to ensure transparency in the market. Global price volatility has affected domestic edible oil prices, contributing to inflation pressures on consumers.
Marico’s core franchises expected to power a strong Q2 as FMCG demand holds firm
Marico expects to achieve a double-digit revenue growth in the second quarter of FY27. This growth will be driven by strong domestic demand and improvements in premium and digital-first businesses. The company is benefiting from favorable copra prices that are likely to enhance profit margins. Marico's first-half performance indicates it might exceed its near-term financial guidance. Companies in the consumer goods market are managing resilient demand against fluctuating inflationary pressures.
US Market: Record equity exposure leaves systematic funds exposed to pullback
US stocks face downside risks as volatility-control funds and CTAs hold historically high equity exposure after the S&P 500’s rally. A volatility spike could force systematic strategies to sell heavily, potentially amplifying market declines. Concentrated AI-related gains, stretched positioning and upcoming US midterm elections add to concerns over market volatility.
Global Market: Euro hits 17-month low as French fiscal worries boost dollar
The euro fell to a 17-month low as concerns over France’s fiscal outlook and bond-market selloff weighed on sentiment. The dollar strengthened despite weak US jobs data, supported by elevated Treasury yields and safe-haven demand. Diverging central-bank expectations and persistent bond volatility are likely to keep currency markets under pressure.
RBI likely intervenes to support rupee, traders say
The Reserve Bank of India intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the rupee. This action was taken as the currency faced pressure from a stronger dollar and fluctuating oil prices. Traders reported that state-run banks were observed offering dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI. The dollar index increased to its highest level in more than one year. The rupee slightly strengthened, closing at 96.
Dollar holds firm as French fiscal woes keep euro on back foot
The dollar's ascent continues, climbing to a 17-month peak as the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate increase diminishes. Meanwhile, European currencies face challenges, notably the euro, burdened by rising concerns over France’s debt and political instability. Recent employment statistics from the U.S. hint at a cooling labor market, leading traders to adjust their rate expectations for October.
Global Market Today: Asian shares rise as Fed hike bets ease, oil gains
MSCI’s Asia Pacific equities index rose 0.4%, with Japanese shares rallying 2%. Contracts for the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3% after the underlying gauge closed a record high on Friday and a US index of semiconductor shares rallied.
RBI could keep rates higher for longer amid global and local risks
With global financial risks in the spotlight, the Reserve Bank of India is indicating a shift towards higher interest rates. Governor Sanjay Malhotra has highlighted emerging challenges, including significant global debt levels and surging asset prices. The rise in US treasury yields and crude oil costs suggests trials ahead for the Indian economy.
Will Nifty, Sensex plunge for 9th straight week? TCS Q2, RBI MPC among 4 factors to drive Dalal Street from Monday
India's stock market has faced a challenging downturn, marking eight weeks of losses, the longest in 25 years. Driving this trend are soaring oil prices and rising US bond yields. The sell-off by foreign institutional investors has intensified the downturn. As companies like TCS and DMart prepare for their Q2 earnings, investors hope for signs of resilience amidst a weaker rupee fueling their concerns.
10-year bond yield breaches 7.20%; hits 2.5-year high
India's 10-year benchmark bond yields have surged to 7.21%, reaching their highest point in two and a half years. With oil prices continuing to soar and an anticipated rate hike, analysts predict these yields could escalate to 7.50% if the Reserve Bank of India enacts a 25 basis point increase. A substantial bond issuance is on the horizon, adding complexity to the supply-demand landscape.
Global Markets: Asian shares fall after wild swings in bonds, FX before US jobs data
Asian stock markets dipped as investors navigated through the turbulence of bond and currency fluctuations. Elevated oil prices, driven by military strains in the Gulf region, added to the market's unease. Speculations around high US Treasury yields and fiscal instability in Europe, especially concerning French bonds, also weighed heavily. Furthermore, traders keep a close eye on upcoming US job data that may sway Federal Reserve policy.
Japan government bond yields fall as global markets steady
Japanese government bond yields saw a significant drop on Friday, as the 10-year yield fell to levels not recorded since mid-September. Global bond markets stabilizing and shifts in central bank policies played a key role in this decline. Even though the Bank of Japan raised rates recently, inflation in Tokyo is rising, fueling predictions of additional rate hikes.
Rupee drops to two-month low as global bond rout deepens, oil jumps
The Indian rupee fell to its weakest level in two months as global bond yields rose sharply. Oil prices soared past $100 per barrel, complicating the currency situation further. Investors are concerned about foreign portfolio outflows that are impacting the rupee adversely. Additionally, rising borrowing costs threaten government finances and could affect stocks negatively. A key US labor market report is set to be released soon.
Oil Price Today (October 1): Crude oil at $98 as investors assess supply recovery, peace deal talks. What are analysts saying?
Brent crude was trading near $98 a barrel after touching $104 during Wednesday’s intraday trade. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November delivery fell 0.4% to $90.07 a barrel on Thursday, following a 1.2% gain in the previous session
India bonds end choppy quarter at over 2-year lows as rate hike bets mount
Indian government bonds closed the quarter at their weakest levels in more than two years. Fluctuations in oil prices and rising global yields influenced market conditions significantly. Anticipations regarding rate increases by the Reserve Bank of India affected bond supply fears after increased long-term bond issuance. India's inflation rate in August exceeded the RBI's medium-term target, showing persisted price pressures.
Why are oil prices up today?
Oil prices are up today as US President Donald Trump rejected an Iran peace proposal to resolve the Middle East conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In the morning, Brent crude touched $101 per barrel. The rise in oil prices resulted in the downfall of US stock market and bullion prices.
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