INFLATION PRESSURES
US Fed minutes signal another rate hike by year-end as inflation stays high
According to the latest minutes from the US Federal Reserve, officials hint at a possible interest rate rise by year's end in response to ongoing inflation challenges. With inflation reaching a high of 7.2% in June 2022, fluctuations have continued amid worries over geopolitical events and escalating energy costs. The Fed faces the complex task of controlling inflation while ensuring stable employment within the economy.
US bond selloff resumes as 10- and 30-year yields hit fresh 24-year highs
US Treasuries are facing significant selling pressure as yields hit new highs, fueled by ongoing inflation concerns. Higher oil prices have exacerbated worries about sustained inflation in the market. The 10-year and 30-year bond yields have soared to their highest levels in 24 years. Additionally, rising corporate borrowing is vying for investor capital, contributing to supply constraints. Amid these dynamics, the Treasury plans to auction $39 billion in 10-year notes.
RBI finally gets uppity, takes a hike
In a proactive move to tackle soaring inflation, the RBI has raised the interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.5%. Despite facing obstacles like fluctuating energy prices, India's economy is projected to show resilience. The central bank's strategy is now one of calibrated tightening, allowing adjustments based on fresh economic insights.
RBI’s rate hike matters. Its shift to calibrated tightening matters more
The RBI’s 25-basis-point repo rate hike to 5.5% marks a shift towards calibrated tightening as inflation risks broaden amid elevated oil prices, weather disruptions and resilient domestic demand. With inflation expected to average nearly 5.8% over the next three quarters, the policy move signals scope for further rate increases.
RBI Policy: Complex oil math explains rise in FY27 inflation estimates
The Reserve Bank of India revised its crude oil price projections for the fiscal year 2026-27. This adjustment has led to increased inflation forecasts, now projected at 5.2% for FY27. The bank notes ongoing supply pressures and volatility in international oil prices contributing to these changes. India's merchandise trade deficit has also widened due to rising imports, especially in crude oil.
More RBI rate hikes loading? Decoding what Malhotra's 'caliberated tightening' stance means
The Reserve Bank of India has increased the repo rate to 5.50% after maintaining it for several months. This shift to a calibrated tightening stance indicates a focus on controlling inflation risks. Retail inflation rose recently, prompting the central bank to adjust its policy outlook for the future. While growth remains firm, inflation now takes priority in decision-making.
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RBI Repo Rate 2026: Why RBI MPC lifted repo rates for the first time in nearly four years in October policy
RBI Repo Rate: The Reserve Bank of India increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% after recent inflation concerns. Economic growth has exceeded expectations, prompting the central bank to adjust its monetary policy. Inflation risks are rising due to higher crude prices and weaker agricultural output affecting projections. Global interest rate changes and narrowing differentials also pressure capital flows and emerging markets.
RBI Repo Rate 2026: Malhotra & Co hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% for first time in nearly 4 years as inflation pressures build
Repo Rate Hike: The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years, as rising oil prices, a weak monsoon and a weaker rupee threaten to push inflation higher. The move was widely expected by economists.
RBI has space for more rate hikes despite growth cheer
Quickening inflation, stoked by oil prices and El Nino, could force policymakers to harden further
RBI MPC Key Takeaways 2026: Repo rate hiked to 5.50%, FY27 GDP growth forecast raised to 7.1%
RBI Monetary Policy 2026 Takeaways: The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, the first increase since February 2023. The GDP growth forecast for FY27 was raised from 6.7% to 7.1%, highlighting resilient economic activity. Meanwhile, CPI inflation projection was revised up to 5.2% due to rising food and fuel prices. The Monetary Policy Committee shifted its stance to calibrated tightening, emphasizing inflation containment.
RBI Inflation FY2026-27: Malhotra & Co raises inflation forecast to 5.2% for FY27
RBI Inflation 2026-27 Forecast: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.2% from 5.0% previously. This revision comes as retail inflation exceeds the RBI's target for three consecutive months. The rise in crude oil prices and food costs is a significant contributing factor. Additionally, a weaker rupee adds to imported commodity expenses and inflationary pressures. El Niño is also expected to impact food supply, further influencing inflation.
RBI hikes rate, but analysts see shift to ‘calibrated tightening’ as bigger takeaway. How can this impact markets?
RBI’s 25-bps repo rate hike to 5.50% was largely expected, but its shift to ‘calibrated tightening’ surprised markets and signals that near-term rate cuts are unlikely. Analysts expect selective pressure on rate-sensitive sectors, while banks with stronger balance sheets may remain relatively better placed amid rising inflation and crude prices.
Four horsemen of economic trouble? RBI governor flags the risks spooking the world
The RBI raised the repo rate 25 bps to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years, and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening. Governor Sanjay Malhotra flagged four global risks: West Asia tensions and volatile oil prices, tariff uncertainty, elevated bond yields and stretched AI stock valuations. He said these risks are clouding global sentiment despite resilient growth.
RBI MPC Meeting at a Glance: Your one step guide for all decisions
RBI Monetary Policy Meeting Highlights: The Monetary Policy Committee has raised the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that inflation pressures are increasing and rate cuts are not expected soon. The Indian economy continues to show resilience, with GDP growth projected at 7.1% for the year. Inflation is forecasted at 5.2%, with core inflation expected to be around 4.4%.
RBI hikes repo rate by 25 bps: How are rate sensitive stocks, sectors faring after first increase in nearly 4 years?
Banking, NBFCs, realty and auto stocks came under pressure after the RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening. The rate hike, the first in four years, comes amid elevated crude prices, rising global bond yields, inflation concerns and sustained foreign outflows.
Global Market: Eurozone energy inflation has yet to spread to broader prices, ECB's Rehn says
Eurozone energy inflation has not yet spread broadly to other goods and services, ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said. Rising bond yields may curb economic growth and limit price pressures, though resilient activity and AI investment remain concerns. Markets expect further ECB rate hikes as policymakers balance persistent inflation against tightening financial conditions.
Global Market: BOJ seen nearing 2% inflation target as markets eye December rate hike
The Bank of Japan may signal later this month that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, strengthening expectations for a December rate hike. While policymakers remain cautious after recent increases, steady wages, rising prices and yen weakness could support further tightening as the BOJ gradually normalises monetary policy.
World Bank raises India FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%, flags oil, El Niño risks
The World Bank has upgraded India's economic growth forecast to 7.1% for fiscal 2026-27. This change reflects strong domestic consumption, despite ongoing inflationary pressures. Other major forecasters, including Moody's and S&P Global Ratings, have also revised their projections upward. However, elevated oil prices and potential climate-related challenges pose risks to this outlook. The World Bank emphasizes the need for accelerated AI adoption in the region for sustained economic growth.
US services sector cools in September, price pressures building
The US-Israeli war with Iran has raised prices of energy and related products and led to shortages of commodities shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel prices are at record highs, hitting farmers and truckers. Economists warned that higher prices could soon spill over to other sectors and broaden inflation pressures.
FD interest rate hike coming? With rising inflation, many experts expect RBI to hike interest rate
Many financial analysts expect the Reserve Bank of India to increase the repo rate by 25 basis points. This forecast is driven by persistent inflation, soaring crude oil prices, and a depreciating rupee. Should the RBI implement this hike, it could lead to higher fixed deposit returns for investors. Meanwhile, public sector banks continue to offer lower rates, struggling against fierce competition from government securities and small savings schemes.
Double trouble at the dinner table: When will food prices normalise for Indians?
India’s food inflation: Food prices are rising unevenly, impacting household budgets, while inflation is projected to persist in upcoming months. Economists expect food inflation to reach up to 7% in the near future due to various factors. Weather risks, particularly from El Niño, could significantly affect crop yields and consequently food prices. Additionally, global events in West Asia contribute to higher energy and logistic costs.
Eurozone business growth hits over 3-1/2-year high despite inflation worries, PMI shows
Eurozone business activity experienced significant growth in September due to strong demand despite inflation concerns. The S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI and composite index reflected this growth, reaching high levels not seen in several months. Strong performance was observed in Spain and Ireland, along with an accelerated recovery in Germany. Inflation pressures increased, raising speculation on potential European Central Bank interest rate hikes.
US Market: Fed’s Hammack says jobs data gives time to assess rate path
Federal Reserve officials have signalled they have time to assess incoming economic data before making further changes to interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said September’s weak employment report was broadly consistent with recent labour-market trends. With hiring slowing but remaining stable and inflation pressures persistent, policymakers are weighing employment and price stability before the next rate decision.
Goolsbee says steady jobs market keeps inflation as Fed priority
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said recent jobs data indicated a steady US labour market, while persistent inflation remains the bigger policy concern. He said the Fed’s options remain open and policymakers need stronger evidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target before deciding rates.
RBI policy confronts a world with long tails
The RBI is likely to begin raising rates in October, with another hike possible in Q4 2026, as inflation risks broaden. Higher oil prices, weather shocks, weaker currency and geopolitical risks are fuelling imported pressures.
Markets bet on RBI rate hike as inflation pressure builds
As inflation concerns rise, investors are putting their faith in the Reserve Bank of India to implement an interest rate hike. A survey reveals that nearly 60% of economists believe a 25-basis-point increase is likely at the coming policy meeting. With an eye on foreign investment, expectations are growing for a tightening cycle to kick off in October, setting the stage for how future capital flows will be managed.
RBI may increase rates by 0.25 pc in Oct policy amid inflationary pressures, experts poll shows
The RBI is expected to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in its October policy review as inflation pressures build from higher crude prices, the West Asia conflict and global monetary tightening, according to a PTI poll of economists and bankers. Most also expect a hawkish tone, a higher FY27 inflation forecast and possibly further rate hikes later in the fiscal year.
SBI Research sees CPI inflation at 5.65% in Sept, above 6.5% in Oct-Nov
SBI Research forecasts a rise in CPI inflation to around 5.65 percent in September. They expect it to exceed 6.5 percent during October and November. Inflationary pressures have broadened significantly since the last monetary policy meeting. Additionally, the weakening rupee poses further risks to economic stability. The Reserve Bank of India may adjust its GDP growth and inflation projections during the upcoming policy review.
RBI’s success on dollar flows raises stakes in inflation fight & clamour for rate hike
India’s record $133 billion diaspora inflow has flooded banks with liquidity, pushing overnight rates below the RBI’s 5.25% policy rate. The Reserve Bank has already drained more than ₹1 trillion as food and oil prices fuel inflation concerns. Markets now expect further liquidity measures and are increasingly pricing in a possible RBI interest-rate hike.
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