FY27 INFLATION ESTIMATES
RBI Policy: Complex oil math explains rise in FY27 inflation estimates
The Reserve Bank of India revised its crude oil price projections for the fiscal year 2026-27. This adjustment has led to increased inflation forecasts, now projected at 5.2% for FY27. The bank notes ongoing supply pressures and volatility in international oil prices contributing to these changes. India's merchandise trade deficit has also widened due to rising imports, especially in crude oil.
More RBI rate hikes loading? Decoding what Malhotra's 'caliberated tightening' stance means
The Reserve Bank of India has increased the repo rate to 5.50% after maintaining it for several months. This shift to a calibrated tightening stance indicates a focus on controlling inflation risks. Retail inflation rose recently, prompting the central bank to adjust its policy outlook for the future. While growth remains firm, inflation now takes priority in decision-making.
Tata Motors PV, Maruti Suzuki, Ashok Leyland, auto stocks drop up to 3% as RBI signals rate cuts are ‘off the table’
Auto stocks including Tata Motors PV, Maruti Suzuki, M&M and Ashok Leyland dropped on Wednesday after the RBI raised the repo rate and shifted to calibrated tightening. Analysts expect Q2 revenue growth to remain strong, but rising commodity costs, limited pricing power and elevated inventories could pressure margins and demand.
RBI raises policy rates 25 bps to tame inflation as India hurdles growth barriers
The Reserve Bank of India has unanimously decided to increase the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points. This decision was made amid rising inflation projections and increasing US bond yields. The bank also revised its economic growth forecast for FY27 to 7.1%, indicating strong economic activity. Inflation is expected to reach an average of 5.2% through FY27, affecting consumer prices.
RBI Repo Rate 2026: Malhotra & Co hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% for first time in nearly 4 years as inflation pressures build
Repo Rate Hike: The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years, as rising oil prices, a weak monsoon and a weaker rupee threaten to push inflation higher. The move was widely expected by economists.
RBI has space for more rate hikes despite growth cheer
Quickening inflation, stoked by oil prices and El Nino, could force policymakers to harden further
RBI MPC Key Takeaways 2026: Repo rate hiked to 5.50%, FY27 GDP growth forecast raised to 7.1%
RBI Monetary Policy 2026 Takeaways: The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, the first increase since February 2023. The GDP growth forecast for FY27 was raised from 6.7% to 7.1%, highlighting resilient economic activity. Meanwhile, CPI inflation projection was revised up to 5.2% due to rising food and fuel prices. The Monetary Policy Committee shifted its stance to calibrated tightening, emphasizing inflation containment.
RBI Inflation FY2026-27: Malhotra & Co raises inflation forecast to 5.2% for FY27
RBI Inflation 2026-27 Forecast: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.2% from 5.0% previously. This revision comes as retail inflation exceeds the RBI's target for three consecutive months. The rise in crude oil prices and food costs is a significant contributing factor. Additionally, a weaker rupee adds to imported commodity expenses and inflationary pressures. El Niño is also expected to impact food supply, further influencing inflation.
World Bank bumps up FY27 India growth outlook to 7.1%
The World Bank has increased the growth forecast for India's FY27 to 7.1% from earlier estimates. This revision is attributed to strong domestic demand and solid exports, despite global challenges. Growth is expected to moderate later in FY27 but rebound in the medium term. However, risks such as higher global oil prices and El Nino-related disruptions could impact performance.
S&P projects 12-14% credit growth this fiscal, warns weak monsoon may hit rural lending
S&P Global forecasts a 12-14% increase in financial sector lending despite potential slowdowns in rural areas. Concerns about weak monsoon rains may negatively impact rural incomes and lending. A projected GDP growth of 7% for India in FY27 reflects steady public investment and improved private sector investments. Economic activity remains strong, although headwinds like inflation could constrain momentum.
S&P sees 12-14% credit growth in India despite rural stress risks
S&P has projected credit growth of 12-14% in India's financial sector, emphasizing concerns about rural credit growth. The potential impact of weak monsoons on agricultural earnings could further exacerbate credit challenges. Economic activity exhibits resilience, supported by strong capital positions of banks and lenders. Public investment remains steady while private investment focuses on specific sectors, showing improvement. Inflation is projected at 5.1% for FY27, amidst challenges from global factors.
Banks vs NBFCs: Which stocks could benefit as RBI eyes rate hike for first time in 3 years?
The RBI’s expected first rate hike in three years could have a mixed impact on banks and NBFCs. While higher funding costs may pressure NBFC margins, lenders with floating-rate assets and strong liquidity could benefit. Brokerages favour HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance and Tata Capital.
Rs 17,540 crore added to Trent mcap, but Citi stays bearish. Why Morgan Stanley disagrees
Trent shares surged 13% after the Tata Group retailer reported strong Q2 revenue growth and crossed the 1,000-store milestone for Zudio. Morgan Stanley and HSBC remain bullish, while Citi stays cautious over margins, competition and revenue per square foot.
India's services sector growth at 3-month high, but quarter weakest since 2022, PMI shows
India’s services sector expanded at its fastest pace in three months in September, with the HSBC Services PMI rising to 55.2 on stronger domestic demand. However, quarterly growth was the weakest since early 2022, reflecting softer hiring and exports. Manufacturing gains lifted the Composite PMI to 55.9, signalling a moderate recovery.
RBI seen starting rate-hike cycle, repo could rise to 6% by FY27-end: Reports
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to increase the repo rate to combat rising inflation and support stronger growth. Reports indicate that a rate-hike cycle of 75 basis points is anticipated, potentially reaching 6 percent by FY27. While inflation drives this tightening, geopolitical factors could impact the extent of rate increases. ICICI Bank has raised its CPI inflation forecast based on core inflation trends and global developments.
RBI likely to hold repo rate in Oct policy, begin 50-75 bps hike cycle in Dec: BoB
The Reserve Bank of India is set to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% during the upcoming policy meeting. Despite rising inflation pressures and global economic uncertainty, the rate is expected to remain unchanged. Credit and deposit growth in India currently show strong performance, supporting steady rates. A rate hike cycle is anticipated to begin in December, amounting to 50-75 basis points.
IT Q2 preview: Muted growth, steady margins likely; deal conversion, AI deflation in focus
Research advisory UnearthInsight expects the top-five IT companies to grow 0.5-1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of FY27, with little improvement over the April-June period.
IT Q2 review: Muted growth, steady margins likely; deal conversion, AI deflation in focus
India's leading IT firms are projected to exhibit modest revenue growth and stable margins for the second quarter. Analysts anticipate that discretionary spending will remain constrained due to geopolitical issues affecting client budgets. As such, decision-making cycles are expected to prolong for upcoming quarters. Additionally, AI advancements are predicted to impact traditional services and revenue generation timelines.
RBI may increase rates by 0.25 pc in Oct policy amid inflationary pressures, experts poll shows
The RBI is expected to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in its October policy review as inflation pressures build from higher crude prices, the West Asia conflict and global monetary tightening, according to a PTI poll of economists and bankers. Most also expect a hawkish tone, a higher FY27 inflation forecast and possibly further rate hikes later in the fiscal year.
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