FOOD INFLATION
RBI finally gets uppity, takes a hike
In a proactive move to tackle soaring inflation, the RBI has raised the interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.5%. Despite facing obstacles like fluctuating energy prices, India's economy is projected to show resilience. The central bank's strategy is now one of calibrated tightening, allowing adjustments based on fresh economic insights.
RBI may hike interest rate further in December policy: Experts
The Reserve Bank of India has shifted its policy stance to calibrated tightening amid rising inflation concerns. A rate hike of up to 50 basis points is anticipated in December, increasing the current benchmark rate. Various economists emphasize the likelihood of cumulative rate increases over the next months. Rising commodity prices and global market volatility are influencing these monetary policy decisions.
RBI Repo Rate 2026: Malhotra & Co hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% for first time in nearly 4 years as inflation pressures build
Repo Rate Hike: The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years, as rising oil prices, a weak monsoon and a weaker rupee threaten to push inflation higher. The move was widely expected by economists.
RBI MPC Key Takeaways 2026: Repo rate hiked to 5.50%, FY27 GDP growth forecast raised to 7.1%
RBI Monetary Policy 2026 Takeaways: The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, the first increase since February 2023. The GDP growth forecast for FY27 was raised from 6.7% to 7.1%, highlighting resilient economic activity. Meanwhile, CPI inflation projection was revised up to 5.2% due to rising food and fuel prices. The Monetary Policy Committee shifted its stance to calibrated tightening, emphasizing inflation containment.
RBI Inflation FY2026-27: Malhotra & Co raises inflation forecast to 5.2% for FY27
RBI Inflation 2026-27 Forecast: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.2% from 5.0% previously. This revision comes as retail inflation exceeds the RBI's target for three consecutive months. The rise in crude oil prices and food costs is a significant contributing factor. Additionally, a weaker rupee adds to imported commodity expenses and inflationary pressures. El Niño is also expected to impact food supply, further influencing inflation.
World Bank bumps up FY27 India growth outlook to 7.1%
The World Bank has increased the growth forecast for India's FY27 to 7.1% from earlier estimates. This revision is attributed to strong domestic demand and solid exports, despite global challenges. Growth is expected to moderate later in FY27 but rebound in the medium term. However, risks such as higher global oil prices and El Nino-related disruptions could impact performance.
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S&P projects 12-14% credit growth this fiscal, warns weak monsoon may hit rural lending
S&P Global forecasts a 12-14% increase in financial sector lending despite potential slowdowns in rural areas. Concerns about weak monsoon rains may negatively impact rural incomes and lending. A projected GDP growth of 7% for India in FY27 reflects steady public investment and improved private sector investments. Economic activity remains strong, although headwinds like inflation could constrain momentum.
S&P sees 12-14% credit growth in India despite rural stress risks
S&P has projected credit growth of 12-14% in India's financial sector, emphasizing concerns about rural credit growth. The potential impact of weak monsoons on agricultural earnings could further exacerbate credit challenges. Economic activity exhibits resilience, supported by strong capital positions of banks and lenders. Public investment remains steady while private investment focuses on specific sectors, showing improvement. Inflation is projected at 5.1% for FY27, amidst challenges from global factors.
World Bank flags oil, El Niño and global market risks to growth
The World Bank has revised its growth forecast for South Asia, projecting a robust 6.9% by 2026, driven by a surge in consumer demand. India, leading the region's economy, is expected to achieve a 7.1% growth. However, persistent high inflation and potential spikes in energy prices pose risks to this growth.
Pulses prices surge: Will cheaper imports bring relief to consumers? Stakeholders divided
India currently imposes a 10% import duty on red lentils and chickpeas, while yellow peas attract a 30% duty.
World Bank raises India FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%, flags oil, El Niño risks
The World Bank has upgraded India's economic growth forecast to 7.1% for fiscal 2026-27. This change reflects strong domestic consumption, despite ongoing inflationary pressures. Other major forecasters, including Moody's and S&P Global Ratings, have also revised their projections upward. However, elevated oil prices and potential climate-related challenges pose risks to this outlook. The World Bank emphasizes the need for accelerated AI adoption in the region for sustained economic growth.
Double trouble at the dinner table: When will food prices normalise for Indians?
India’s food inflation: Food prices are rising unevenly, impacting household budgets, while inflation is projected to persist in upcoming months. Economists expect food inflation to reach up to 7% in the near future due to various factors. Weather risks, particularly from El Niño, could significantly affect crop yields and consequently food prices. Additionally, global events in West Asia contribute to higher energy and logistic costs.
RBI policy confronts a world with long tails
The RBI is likely to begin raising rates in October, with another hike possible in Q4 2026, as inflation risks broaden. Higher oil prices, weather shocks, weaker currency and geopolitical risks are fuelling imported pressures.
RBI may increase rates by 0.25 pc in Oct policy amid inflationary pressures, experts poll shows
The RBI is expected to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in its October policy review as inflation pressures build from higher crude prices, the West Asia conflict and global monetary tightening, according to a PTI poll of economists and bankers. Most also expect a hawkish tone, a higher FY27 inflation forecast and possibly further rate hikes later in the fiscal year.
Will Nifty, Sensex plunge for 9th straight week? TCS Q2, RBI MPC among 4 factors to drive Dalal Street from Monday
India's stock market has faced a challenging downturn, marking eight weeks of losses, the longest in 25 years. Driving this trend are soaring oil prices and rising US bond yields. The sell-off by foreign institutional investors has intensified the downturn. As companies like TCS and DMart prepare for their Q2 earnings, investors hope for signs of resilience amidst a weaker rupee fueling their concerns.
Auto sales surge in September, but GST base clouds the picture. Can stocks rebound ahead of Q2 results?
India’s auto sector delivered a mixed September, with strong passenger- and commercial-vehicle sales offset by weak tractor and domestic two-wheeler demand. Festive buying could support growth, but rural stress, rising input costs and excess dealer inventory pose risks to margins.
Pakistan's inflation remains in double digits as fuel, power costs bite
Pakistan's inflation eased to 10.3 per cent in September 2026, down from 11.1 per cent in August, but remained above the government's projections as rising electricity and fuel costs continued to offset the relief from lower food inflation. The figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics showed that consumer prices rose 1.3 per cent month-on-month in September.
Weakest monsoon since 2015 prompts ICRA to cut FY27 farm growth forecast
In 2026, the Southwest monsoon recorded rainfall at 87 percent of the long-period average, the lowest since 2015. ICRA has lowered its agriculture growth forecast for FY27 to approximately 1 percent from 1.3 percent due to inadequate rains. Kharif sowing has decreased by 1.2 percent compared to last year, with rice and cotton crops showing notable reductions. Reservoir storage levels have significantly declined, raising concerns for the upcoming rabi season.
SBI Research sees CPI inflation at 5.65% in Sept, above 6.5% in Oct-Nov
SBI Research forecasts a rise in CPI inflation to around 5.65 percent in September. They expect it to exceed 6.5 percent during October and November. Inflationary pressures have broadened significantly since the last monetary policy meeting. Additionally, the weakening rupee poses further risks to economic stability. The Reserve Bank of India may adjust its GDP growth and inflation projections during the upcoming policy review.
The biggest jump in global crop prices since 2022 threatens to boost inflation
Global agricultural prices have jumped notably due to growing tensions in the Black Sea affecting supply routes, coupled with adverse weather impacting yields. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index surged by 13%, its highest quarterly growth since March 2022. Meanwhile, China's substantial purchases of American soybeans are altering grain trade dynamics.
The Street feels global heat
Bond markets are imposing fiscal discipline on governments as borrowing levels increase amid geopolitical tensions and rising inflation. Central banks are raising interest rates in response to inflation, affecting global growth and emerging economies, including India. Domestic challenges, such as erratic monsoons, complicate the financial landscape within India. Indian equities are facing significant selling pressure despite domestic household savings investing in them.
Climate change Is making these grocery items more expensive this year
Global grocery prices are increasing as a result of climate change impacting food production. Recent research highlights that extreme weather is contributing to rising costs of essential items. Analysts predict that these trends will continue into 2027 and beyond, affecting food inflation rates. Additionally, countries previously self-sufficient in staple commodities might experience inflation due to disrupted yields.
RBI’s wait and watch phase is over as inflation demands a rate hike
RBI has maintained its policy rate at 5.25% but is facing significant inflation pressures. Retail inflation has risen above the target of 4%, indicating the need for action. Food and fuel inflation are increasing, contributing to overall economic effects. Additionally, external factors, including global interest rates, add to the urgency for a rate hike. Thus, effective monetary policy adjustments are crucial in the current economic context.
RBI may raise repo rate by 100 bps through H1 2027: BofA Securities
Bank of America Securities has revised its forecast for the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate hikes. It now anticipates a total increase of 100 basis points by mid-2027. The first hike is expected during the monetary policy meeting in October. Economic growth remains strong, while inflation risks are increasing, prompting the RBI to adjust its monetary policy.
RBI may face two hikes, one dilemma as repo rate is seen hitting 5.75% soon: Report
The Reserve Bank of India is projected to increase its repo rate by 25 basis points in October and December. Inflationary pressures, primarily from food and energy prices, are influencing this expected change. Nomura forecasts consumer inflation rising before gradually declining over the next few quarters. Economists predict this rate cycle might be relatively short due to potential consumption slowdowns.
Rising oil prices, inflation to create headwinds for India's economic growth: BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas expects India’s economic outlook to come under greater pressure as higher crude prices, rising inflation and weaker rural and industrial indicators weigh on growth. While credit growth, auto sales and food-grain stocks remain supportive, the brokerage says elevated oil prices could also leave the RBI with less room to keep interest rates unchanged.
Global Market: Eurozone bond yields rise as oil climbs, inflation data eyed
Eurozone government bond yields rose as higher oil prices and uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict heightened inflation and interest-rate concerns. Germany’s 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2009, while markets awaited eurozone inflation data. Investors expect September inflation to accelerate, potentially reinforcing expectations of further European Central Bank rate increases.
HSBC expects RBI to raise repo rate by 50 bps in FY27 amid strong growth, inflation pressures
India's GDP growth in the second quarter of FY26 surpassed the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 7 percent. The growth prompted forecasts of gradual rate hikes, with expectations of a 25 basis points increase twice in FY27. Additionally, inflation is projected to hover above 5 percent due to various economic pressures. Rising oil prices are expected to widen the current account deficit to 1.3 percent of GDP in FY27.
Will RBI announce steep rate hikes? Nomura sees up to 50 bps increase by Dec, dismisses 125 bps hike fears
Nomura expects the RBI to pursue a limited tightening cycle, with a possible 50 bps rate hike by December, as food and energy pressures rise but underlying inflation remains contained.
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