INFLATION OUTLOOK
Global Markets: Uncertain global outlook keeps investors balancing risk and opportunity
Markets start the week on a positive note as Donald Trump signals possible easing of the Iran conflict, supporting global equities. However, optimism is tempered by concerns over sticky inflation, mixed economic data, and policy uncertainty. Investors are closely watching the April 21 hearing of Kevin Warsh, with shifting expectations now pointing to fewer or no rate cuts this year.
Is the RBI fighting the wrong battle? Why rate hikes may not solve India’s current inflation problem
Rising oil prices due to the West Asia conflict have lifted inflation expectations, but underlying demand in India remains weak. Despite market signals pointing to possible rate hikes, historical trends and current macro conditions suggest the RBI may hold off, favouring supportive monetary policy amid fragile growth and supply-driven inflation pressures.
Long-term bonds are cheap now; patient investors may gain big, says Rahul Goswami of Franklin Templeton
Rate cuts are off the table, inflation is creeping up, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a wildcard. In a candid interview with ET Wealth’s Kayezad E. Adajania, Rahul Goswami of Franklin Templeton, sees a clear opportunity in long-dated bonds for investors who can stomach near-term volatility.
India's banking sector resilient; 11-13% credit growth for January-June likely: Survey
Indian banks anticipate robust non-food credit growth of 11-13% from January-June 2026, driven by improving balance sheets and steady economic activity. Retail and SME segments are expected to lead this expansion, while industrial credit will see a more measured recovery. Most bankers foresee a stable monetary policy stance.
War revives stagflation dangers for global economy
Global economic outlook faces uncertainty as seven weeks of Middle East conflict impact growth and inflation. Business surveys from Australia to the US will reveal the extent of deterioration, with stagflation risks looming. Policymakers grapple with responses amid persistent global uncertainty, while inflation data and interest rate decisions from various nations are closely watched.
Gold price prediction: Bullion experts predict likely gold rate for next few months. Details here
Gold rate prediction: Gold is well-positioned in the current global environment and could gain whether the economy weakens into stagflation or improves amid falling interest rates.
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Akshaya Tritiya remains proven entry point for gold investors: Motilal Oswal
Gold continues its role as a trusted asset for Indian households, blending tradition with financial security. Investors are showing increased interest in flexible gold options alongside traditional purchases. Global factors like geopolitical tensions and economic growth concerns support gold's appeal. The outlook for gold remains constructive for medium to long-term investors, with a 'buy on dips' strategy recommended.
Lagarde: Iran war to have mid-term effect on inflation
The Iran war poses risks to Europe's economy. Growth may slow, and inflation could rise beyond forecasts. The European Central Bank is watching closely. Policymakers are considering interest rate hikes to manage energy-driven price shocks. Decisions will depend on incoming data. The situation remains uncertain as the bank monitors developments.
US Stocks: Russell 2000 scales intraday peak weeks after war-driven slide into correction
The small-cap Russell 2000 hit its first intraday record high on Friday since the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted, joining other major indexes at all-time highs and suggesting the recent equities rally is broadening beyond large companies.
Will gold price reach $4,900 or fall towards $4,500 and silver rate touch $90 or slip below $60 this month? Market outlook, analysts insights and investor strategy
Will gold price reach $4,900 or fall towards $4,500 and silver rate touch $90 or slip below $60 this month? Gold held steady and moved toward a fourth weekly gain as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal shaped inflation and interest rate expectations. The dollar fell and oil eased. Indian banks paused imports. Silver gained momentum. Analysts now discuss price targets, risks, and investor strategy for this month.
US Fed's John Williams says Iran war is already driving up inflation pressures
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Thursday that the Middle East war is already driving up inflationary pressures, and uncertainty over the outlook is limiting how much the central bank can say about what's next for interest rate policy.
Gold price drops 0.7% to $4,807 today—should investors panic now as gold and silver prices risk a 10% crash with US-Iran deal still out of sight and crude oil threat rising?
Gold, silver rates crash fears intensify as prices already dropped sharply. Gold is down over 8%. Silver has plunged more than 16%. This comes during the US–Iran war. Crude oil now threatens to cross $120 per barrel. This is a critical trigger point. High oil pushes inflation higher. It keeps interest rates elevated. The Federal Reserve stays hawkish. The dollar strengthens further. That reduces bullion demand globally. If this trend continues, gold and silver rates crash risk remains high. Another 10% fall looks possible soon.
WPI inflation hits 38-month high of 3.9% in March as soaring energy, crude prices amid West Asia war drive up costs
India's wholesale inflation reached a 38-month peak of 3.9% in March. This surge was fueled by rising costs of crude oil, energy, and manufactured goods. Experts anticipate further increases due to ongoing global tensions. Supply disruptions also contributed to higher input prices across various sectors. Retail inflation also saw a slight uptick.
Iran war puts US companies in wait-and-see mode, Fed Beige Book says
US Federal Reserve Beige Book shows economic activity and employment remain steady, but rising energy prices driven by the Iran conflict are creating uncertainty. Businesses are delaying investment and hiring decisions, while inflation pressures persist due to higher fuel and input costs, even as wage growth remains muted overall.
All eyes on the Fed: April meeting date and rate decision predictions
Fed interest rate decision April 2026: As the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 meeting looms, interest rates are expected to hold steady for a third consecutive time. Officials are navigating inflation risks from the Iran war against economic uncertainty. Added scrutiny surrounds Chair Jerome Powell's potential exit and the political hurdles facing his successor.
Kharif season faces "double whammy" from El Nino risk and Gulf tensions: Experts
India's upcoming Kharif season faces a double challenge. A likely weak monsoon due to El Nino and ongoing Gulf tensions threaten farm output. Experts warn of rising food prices and reduced rural demand. While government measures may offer some relief, the situation remains uncertain. The monsoon's progress and easing of supply disruptions will be key.
IMF cuts global growth outlook for 2026, warns of potential recession if Iran war worsens
The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth outlook, warning the economy could near recession if the Middle East conflict keeps oil above $100. It now sees 3.1% growth in 2026, but this could drop to 2.5% or even 2.0% in a severe scenario, alongside rising inflation, with emerging markets hit hardest while India remains a relative bright spot.
Global finance ministers warn of prolonged market impact from Middle East conflict
Global finance ministers warn the Middle East conflict will continue to impact growth and inflation. Even a lasting peace will not immediately erase these effects. Renewed fighting or disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pose serious risks. Ministers pledge fiscally responsible domestic responses and urge all nations to avoid protectionist trade barriers.
Gold rises 60% since last Akshaya Tritiya. Should you invest this year amid Iran war uncertainty?
Gold prices have surged nearly 60% since Akshaya Tritiya 2025, but the outlook for further gains by 2027 is complex due to geopolitical tensions and interest rate uncertainty. Despite near-term headwinds, structural factors like central bank buying and rising debt support a positive long-term view, suggesting gold as a hedge.
India’s wholesale inflation at multi-year high of 3.88% in March; up from 2.13% in February
India’s wholesale price inflation rose to a 12-month high of 3.88% in March from 2.13% in February, exceeding expectations, while retail inflation also edged up to 3.4%.
IMF raises India FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.5% even as the world stumbles through conflict
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised India’s growth forecast for FY27 to 6.5%, up 0.1 percentage point from its January estimate, and expects growth to hold steady at the same level in FY28, even as it flags rising geopolitical risks from the war in the Middle East.
IMF raises India's growth forecast to 6.5% for FY27
The International Monetary Fund has raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.5 per cent for the current fiscal year. India is set to be the world's fastest-growing economy. Other global institutions also show optimism for India's economic performance. Projections indicate continued strong growth in the coming years.
US producer prices increase less than expected in March
America's producer prices saw a smaller than anticipated rise in March. Services costs remained steady. However, escalating energy prices, driven by the conflict with Iran, are fueling inflation. This data reflects early impacts of the Middle East situation. Oil prices have surged significantly. Consumer prices also saw a notable increase, particularly gasoline and diesel.
Why are US stock market futures up today, and will S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stay in green or turn red again? Wall Street futures, US stocks to watch, analysts insights, market outlook
Why are US stock market futures up today, and will S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stay in green or turn red again? Futures moved higher as investors reacted to hopes of de-escalation in Middle East tensions, awaited key inflation data, and prepared for major corporate earnings. Markets remain sensitive to Federal Reserve signals, fuel-driven inflation, and company guidance, which will decide whether the rally continues or markets turn red again in the coming days.
Why are gold and silver prices up, and will precious metals continue to rise or fall again shortly? Analysts insights, market outlook and what should investors do now
Why are gold and silver prices up, and will precious metals continue to rise or fall again shortly? Gold prices increased after the dollar weakened and oil prices dropped. Peace talk expectations between the United States and Iran also affected markets. Investors tracked inflation, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks. Silver and other metals also gained. Analysts now expect short-term price swings while traders assess global developments and central bank policy outlook.
Food, fuel prices push up March retail inflation to 3.4%
India's retail inflation climbed to 3.4 percent in March. Higher food and fuel costs are driving this increase. Experts predict inflation could reach 4 percent in April. This is due to ongoing global conflicts impacting energy prices. The Reserve Bank of India is closely watching these trends. Policymakers anticipate a pause in interest rate cuts.
India’s March retail inflation quickens to 3.4% as US war on Iran disrupts global trade flows
In March, India's retail inflation ticked up to 3.4%, influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East that are affecting global oil supplies. However, this increase remains comfortably within the target range set by the Reserve Bank of India. While the RBI is aware of external threats, it underscores the resilience of India's economy.
Global Market: China’s factory-gate prices turn positive after three years as cost pressures mount
China's factory prices are rising again after three years. This marks a shift from falling prices. Higher global commodity costs, driven by geopolitical tensions, are pushing up costs for Chinese producers. Consumer prices are rising slower, showing limited cost pass-through. This presents a complex challenge for policymakers balancing growth and inflation risks.
US Stock Market | Fed’s Daly signals patience as inflation risks linger
Mary Daly signalled confidence in the U.S. economy even as inflation risks persist due to elevated oil prices and Middle East tensions. Speaking to Reuters, she stressed patience on policy moves, noting strong domestic momentum and no immediate need for rate cuts despite geopolitical uncertainty.
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