Gold rises 60% since last Akshaya Tritiya. Should you invest this year amid Iran war uncertainty?

In India, gold buying goes beyond financial considerations and carries deep cultural significance. The metal is often purchased during key festivals, as it is believed to symbolise prosperity, good fortune and long-term wealth creation. Akshaya Tritiya is one such occasion, historically seen as an auspicious time for gold purchases.

Since the last Akshaya Tritiya in 2025, gold prices have climbed nearly 60%, delivering strong gains for investors. This time, however, the outlook appears less straightforward. The ongoing Iran conflict, sharp rise in oil prices, and resulting uncertainty around interest rates have made the environment more complex.

With concerns that inflation could remain elevated, there is growing uncertainty over whether central banks will cut rates or even move toward hikes. Against this backdrop, investors are now questioning whether gold can continue to generate positive returns by the next Akshaya Tritiya in 2027.

On the macro front, recent minutes from the US Federal Reserve suggest a higher-for-longer rate environment, with the possibility of further hikes if inflation remains persistent. This continues to act as a near-term headwind for gold, as elevated bond yields and a stronger dollar typically weigh on non-yielding assets, said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

Gold, after its ceasefire-led spike, has entered a consolidation phase. The initial rally was driven by a softer dollar and easing crude prices, which helped temper inflation concerns. However, improving risk sentiment has triggered profit booking, capping further upside. This suggests that while the geopolitical premium has cooled, it has not completely faded.

Despite the recent pause, the broader outlook for gold remains positive. Ongoing central bank purchases, rising global debt levels and continued geopolitical diversification trends continue to underpin the long-term bullish case.

From an investment standpoint, gold is best viewed as a hedge rather than a short-term trade. Investors may look to accumulate on dips, while maintaining a disciplined allocation approach.

Corrections following strong rallies are natural and do not undermine the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals. The structural factors supporting gold remain largely intact, it added.

“We reiterate investing in gold over supportive fundamentals and market uncertainties. Any decline in prices over a dollar rally or ease in tensions provides an opportunity to accumulate/invest in gold,” Tata Mutual Fund said in a report.

Geopolitical fragmentation continues across several regions, reinforcing gold’s role as a monetary hedge in global portfolios. In addition, structural supply constraints continue to limit the availability of fresh metal, while central bank purchases remain strong as countries diversify reserves away from fiat currencies. Global central bank gold buying has nearly doubled over the past decade.

From a technical perspective, MCX gold is trading in the Rs 1,54,500-1,55,000 range. Buying interest is emerging at lower levels, though momentum remains gradual and requires confirmation. A sustained move above Rs 1,55,000 could revive momentum toward Rs 1,57,000–1,58,000.

On the downside, a break below Rs 1,54,000 may lead to a corrective move toward Rs 1,52,000 and further to Rs 1,50,000. The bias remains cautiously positive, with macro factors offering some support; however, a decisive move above resistance levels is needed to strengthen momentum further.

Gold prices on the MCX have risen 8%, or nearly Rs 12,000, since the beginning of the year.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)