CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT FY27
JPMorgan finds Reliance Industries share valuation comfortable but flags O2C as uncertain spot
JPMorgan maintains an Overweight rating on Reliance Industries. The brokerage sees comfortable relative valuation for RIL. Near-term outlook for oil-to-chemicals business remains uncertain. JPMorgan retains a price target of Rs 1,675 for March 2027. The firm expects improved refining and petrochemical margins in the medium term. Retail valuation upside also offers potential gains.
Is the RBI fighting the wrong battle? Why rate hikes may not solve India’s current inflation problem
Rising oil prices due to the West Asia conflict have lifted inflation expectations, but underlying demand in India remains weak. Despite market signals pointing to possible rate hikes, historical trends and current macro conditions suggest the RBI may hold off, favouring supportive monetary policy amid fragile growth and supply-driven inflation pressures.
Long-term bonds are cheap now; patient investors may gain big, says Rahul Goswami of Franklin Templeton
Rate cuts are off the table, inflation is creeping up, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a wildcard. In a candid interview with ET Wealth’s Kayezad E. Adajania, Rahul Goswami of Franklin Templeton, sees a clear opportunity in long-dated bonds for investors who can stomach near-term volatility.
India banks’ credit growth seen outpacing deposits in FY27: Analysts
Bank credit growth is set to outpace deposit expansion in fiscal 2027. Analysts predict credit will grow 12-14% while deposits rise 10-12%. This trend follows a pattern where credit has consistently grown faster than deposits for over a decade. Revised liquidity norms may help manage this gap. Declining CASA ratios are a concern, impacting bank profitability.
India resilient amid oil shock, may grow 6.8%-7.1% despite global headwinds: SBI Research
India faces global challenges from a strong position. Economic growth is projected between 6.8% and 7.1% for FY27. The nation's banking sector is robust. Opportunities arise for GIFT City and Indian airports. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain its current monetary policy stance. India's resilience is evident amidst regional conflict and global uncertainties.
Nifty 'maturity' sets stage for a bull market: ICICI Direct
The Nifty has reached a significant point of maturity. This suggests a strong bottom is in place. Analysts believe this sets the stage for the next phase of a bull market. The Nifty target has been revised upwards. Historically, major corrections have bottomed out and led to substantial rallies.
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India’s current account deficit may rise to 2% of GDP in FY27 if oil stays at $82–87: CRISIL
Rising oil prices could push India's current account deficit to a concerning two percent of GDP, as highlighted by a Crisil report. This prediction hinges on the volatile global market conditions we’re currently facing. While US tariff reductions may bolster exports to some extent, the ongoing unrest in West Asia is another pivotal aspect that could affect the situation.
West Asia War: India’s BBB rating seen stable despite energy shock; S&P flags corporate stress, weaker credit growth
West Asia War: India's sovereign rating remains stable despite rising energy costs. However, supply disruptions for food and fuel could impact company credit quality. Top companies may see earnings drop, increasing debt ratios. Sectors like refining and airlines are most vulnerable. Banks might see slower credit growth. Government revenue could be affected by fuel price support measures.
India's trade gap may widen in FY27 amid global and oil risks: Report
India's trade deficit narrowed in March, but this improvement may not last. Experts warn of a widening deficit in the coming months. Factors like external shocks, slowing global demand, and import pressures are expected to impact trade. Exports face challenges due to weak global demand. The current account deficit is projected to widen.
Suzlon Energy shares rally 20% in one month: Here's why it is an 'unintended beneficiary' of Iran-US war
Suzlon Energy shares have surged 20% in a month as rising power demand and reduced gas and hydro output amid the Iran-US conflict boost wind energy’s relevance. JM Financial sees the company as an unintended beneficiary, citing strong evening demand, improved execution outlook, and over 30% upside potential.
India's trade gap shrinks in March, swells in FY26
India's trade deficit saw a reduction in March as the West Asia conflict disrupted trade flows. Exports and imports both declined, narrowing the monthly deficit. However, the overall trade deficit for the fiscal year widened. Despite challenges, India achieved record exports of $860 billion in FY26, showcasing resilience. Several free trade agreements are expected to boost future trade prospects.
India’s trade deficit narrows to $20.67 billion in March on West Asia risks
India's trade deficit saw a significant reduction in March. Exports increased while imports decreased. This improvement occurred despite rising tensions in West Asia. Geopolitical risks could impact future trade. Services exports continue to drive growth for India. Merchandise exports also saw a modest rise.
Fuel price freeze: Rs 18/litre loss on petrol, Rs 35 on diesel
State-owned fuel retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL face widening losses of Rs 18 per litre on petrol and Rs 35 on diesel as prices remain frozen since April 2022. Rising global crude costs, despite excise cuts, have eroded gains, with analysts warning of possible price hikes after state elections.
India the new 'no-go' zone for FIIs? 7 brutal truths behind $18 billion exodus
Foreign institutional investors have pulled out $18 billion from Indian equities since the Iran war began, dragging the Nifty down over 9% from its peak. Rising oil prices and capital flight have turned India from a preferred market into a cautious bet. Despite corrected valuations, global investors remain unconvinced, with weak dollar returns limiting fresh inflows.
Dual risks of monsoon deficit and rising input costs threaten India's rural economy in 2026: Report
India's rural economy faces a dual threat in 2026 from a potential below-normal monsoon and rising input costs due to the US-Iran conflict. This combination could significantly impact agricultural output, farmer incomes, and rural demand, potentially leading to increased food inflation and straining government finances.
ETMarkets Smart Talk| FY26 a year of consolidation, not breakdown; global stability key for revival in FY27: Somil Mehta
Indian markets experienced consolidation in FY26 due to global headwinds, but underlying economic strength remains. FY27 revival hinges on global stability and domestic growth drivers like government capex and consumption. Investors should focus on sectors with earnings visibility and policy support, while gold and silver offer hedging.
ADB raises India’s FY27 growth forecast to 6.9%
India's economic growth forecast for FY27 has been raised to 6.9 percent by the Asian Development Bank. This upward revision is driven by increasing consumption, higher investment, supportive government policies, and recent trade pacts. While FY26 is projected at 7.6 percent, FY27 anticipates a moderation due to global uncertainties. The outlook for FY28 is a robust 7.
Crisil warns of potential hit to India remittances amid West Asia conflict
India's remittance flow faces potential impact from the West Asia conflict. A third of diaspora inflows originate from Gulf Cooperation Council countries. A reduction in diaspora incomes could affect India's current account deficit. This comes at a time when the trade deficit is already under pressure. India is the world's largest beneficiary of remittances.
Oil prices to settle at $75-80 in 2 months, Nifty to touch 29K by March 2027, says Emkay. Here’s why
Emkay Global Financial Services expects crude oil to stabilise at $75–80 within two months and sees the Nifty 50 hitting 29,000 by March 2027. A potential Iran–US peace deal, easing energy pressures and steady earnings growth are seen driving a rebound in Indian equities despite near-term macro headwinds.
'Rate action unlikely in FY27; if any, it could be a rise,' say economists
Indian markets expect a prolonged pause in policy rates. Economists foresee no immediate tightening as higher global energy prices have a limited impact. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain rates through FY27. While most anticipate a pause, a rate hike is considered more probable than a cut if the Iran conflict persists and affects growth.
Centre saves ₹55,000 crore as FY26 spending undershoots estimates
Government spending in the last fiscal year was less than planned. This saving of about ₹55,000 crore will help manage tax collection shortfalls. Unspent funds were noted in ministries for water, sanitation, and housing. Savings also came from better direct benefit transfer management. This fiscal prudence aids the government's financial targets.
Economists see prolonged rate pause; hike risks hinge on oil, geopolitics
Indian markets expect interest rates to remain steady for an extended period. Economists foresee no immediate policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of India. The central bank's focus is on financial stability and managing global risks. Inflation projections are within tolerance levels. Future rate movements will depend on global events and domestic inflation trends.
Rupee at risk? BOP pressure, oil shock and capital flows hold the key, says Rahul Bajoria
The Indian rupee faces potential weakening to 94 against the US dollar by mid-2026 due to rising oil prices and a widening current account deficit. While the RBI is focused on preventing disorderly moves rather than defending specific levels, attracting capital inflows remains crucial for currency stabilization amidst global uncertainties.
Crude is now less rude: What $90 oil means for your stocks, rupee, Indian economy
Global oil markets may be entering a structurally higher price regime, with Brent expected to remain elevated despite a US-led Israel-Iran ceasefire. India faces near-term relief but faces risks of imported inflation and a widening current account deficit. While valuations are attractive, sustained foreign investor inflows hinge on West Asian stability and declining crude prices.
RBI sees BoP improving despite oil risks, remittances to stay strong
India's central bank anticipates an improved balance of payment situation. While high crude oil prices may initially impact the current account deficit, the Reserve Bank of India is confident in future improvements. Increased remittances from the Gulf region are expected to boost forex reserves.
RBI MPC: India's central bank sounds alarm with five risks as Iran war threatens domestic stability
The Reserve Bank of India flagged five key risks to the Indian economy, warning that ongoing global conflict and uncertainty could impact inflation, growth, and financial conditions.It said higher crude oil prices may push up imported inflation and widen the current account deficit, while disruptions in energy and commodity markets could hurt output across sectors.
MPC Forex Level: India forex reserves rebound to $697.1 bn as RBI flags volatility management
MPC Forex Level refers to the impact of Monetary Policy Committee decisions on currency exchange rates. Understand how RBI’s interest rate decisions, inflation outlook, and repo rate changes influence forex markets, USD/INR movement, and trading strategies for investors and traders. India's foreign exchange reserves have seen a welcome rise, reaching $697.1 billion. This marks a recovery after recent significant drops.
ETMarkets Smart Talk | FY26 a year of consolidation, not breakdown; global stability key for revival in FY27: Somil Mehta
Indian markets experienced consolidation in FY26 due to global headwinds, but underlying economic strength remains. FY27 revival hinges on global stability and domestic growth drivers like government capex and consumption. Investors should focus on sectors with strong earnings visibility and policy support.
Morgan Stanley cuts India’s FY27 growth outlook to 6.2% amid Gulf conflict
Morgan Stanley has reduced India's growth forecast for FY27 to 6.2 percent. This adjustment stems from supply disruptions and rising costs linked to the Gulf conflict. Inflation is now expected to reach 5.1 percent, and the current account deficit may widen to 2.5 percent of GDP. Sectors like pharmaceuticals and textiles face margin pressures.
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