US PRESSURE ON INDIA
RBI’s rate hike matters. Its shift to calibrated tightening matters more
The RBI’s 25-basis-point repo rate hike to 5.5% marks a shift towards calibrated tightening as inflation risks broaden amid elevated oil prices, weather disruptions and resilient domestic demand. With inflation expected to average nearly 5.8% over the next three quarters, the policy move signals scope for further rate increases.
RBI Policy: Complex oil math explains rise in FY27 inflation estimates
The Reserve Bank of India revised its crude oil price projections for the fiscal year 2026-27. This adjustment has led to increased inflation forecasts, now projected at 5.2% for FY27. The bank notes ongoing supply pressures and volatility in international oil prices contributing to these changes. India's merchandise trade deficit has also widened due to rising imports, especially in crude oil.
Why Warren Buffett considers interest rates key to stock valuations
RBI’s first repo rate hike in nearly four years highlights why interest rates matter for stock valuations, echoing Warren Buffett’s long-held view that higher rates can weigh on asset prices.
RBI Repo Rate 2026: Why RBI MPC lifted repo rates for the first time in nearly four years in October policy
RBI Repo Rate: The Reserve Bank of India increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% after recent inflation concerns. Economic growth has exceeded expectations, prompting the central bank to adjust its monetary policy. Inflation risks are rising due to higher crude prices and weaker agricultural output affecting projections. Global interest rate changes and narrowing differentials also pressure capital flows and emerging markets.
India's FX reserves fall for fourth week, down $50 billion from September peak
India's foreign exchange reserves have fallen for the fourth consecutive week to $734.6 billion. This decline follows a recent peak of $785.71 billion on September 4. The Reserve Bank of India has intervened in the market to support the rupee's value amid rising pressures. Elevated oil prices, increasing US Treasury yields, and foreign equity outflows are contributing to the rupee's depreciation. On Wednesday, the rupee declined nearly 0.
RBI Repo Rate 2026: Malhotra & Co hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% for first time in nearly 4 years as inflation pressures build
Repo Rate Hike: The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years, as rising oil prices, a weak monsoon and a weaker rupee threaten to push inflation higher. The move was widely expected by economists.
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India bonds inch lower before pivotal RBI decision
Amid the backdrop of escalating US Treasury yields and surging oil prices, Indian government bond traders are revamping their strategies. The Reserve Bank of India is poised to announce a key policy decision that may affect liquidity and inflation, with a 25-basis-point interest rate hike anticipated. Market sentiment remains cautiously tense as everyone awaits clarity on how this will shape the financial landscape.
India’s great market disconnect: The economy says steady, but stocks say trouble. Which signal should investors trust?
India's macroeconomic fundamentals indicate strong growth despite the Nifty index losing 13% this year. While industrial production and corporate earnings demonstrate resilience, foreign selling pressures weigh on equities. Upcoming earnings season is crucial as investors assess the impact of input costs on margins. Analysts suggest that the market needs broader economic signals to recover sustainably. Stability in global bond yields and crude oil prices could also influence market sentiment.
World Bank flags oil, El Niño and global market risks to growth
The World Bank has revised its growth forecast for South Asia, projecting a robust 6.9% by 2026, driven by a surge in consumer demand. India, leading the region's economy, is expected to achieve a 7.1% growth. However, persistent high inflation and potential spikes in energy prices pose risks to this growth.
World Bank raises India FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%, flags oil, El Niño risks
The World Bank has upgraded India's economic growth forecast to 7.1% for fiscal 2026-27. This change reflects strong domestic consumption, despite ongoing inflationary pressures. Other major forecasters, including Moody's and S&P Global Ratings, have also revised their projections upward. However, elevated oil prices and potential climate-related challenges pose risks to this outlook. The World Bank emphasizes the need for accelerated AI adoption in the region for sustained economic growth.
Indian bonds hold tight range ahead of RBI policy meeting
Amidst cautious market dynamics, Indian government bonds show signs of stability as investors refrain from placing new bets ahead of a potential interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of India. With looming geopolitical factors and a softer U.S. jobs report suggesting a pause in rate increases by the Federal Reserve, investor sentiment shifts. Additionally, the upcoming quarter marks a significant surge in bond sales planned by Indian states.
The pressure is off us now: India's archers after golden run in Asian Games
India's archery team returned from the Asian Games after achieving significant success through five gold medals. The compound archers contributed majorly, winning four podium finishes and securing Olympic quotas for future events. Recurve archers also performed excellently, attaining multiple medals while overcoming strong competitors such as South Korea. Several individual athletes emerged as standout performers, showcasing remarkable teamwork and preparation.
RBI policy confronts a world with long tails
The RBI is likely to begin raising rates in October, with another hike possible in Q4 2026, as inflation risks broaden. Higher oil prices, weather shocks, weaker currency and geopolitical risks are fuelling imported pressures.
Why US Treasury bond yields matter, what it means for Indian investors, and the impact on rupee
Cutting through money jargon, one topic at a time. This week, Sanket Dhanorkar explains why yields on US Treasury bonds matter, and what it means for Indian investors. Rising US bond yields mean investors are demanding a higher return to buy and hold that debt. This reflects concerns over the weak fiscal position of the US and the inflationary impact from steep oil prices.
'Iran signed NPT, India did not...situation is very different': Jaishankar highlights distinctions, deepening global energy crises amid West Asia turmoil
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said India's non-signatory status under the NPT gives it a different position from Iran, which is an NPT signatory, while stressing that India's immediate concern is the impact of the West Asia conflict on energy and trade. He called for restoring uninterrupted supply and trade flows.
Markets bet on RBI rate hike as inflation pressure builds
As inflation concerns rise, investors are putting their faith in the Reserve Bank of India to implement an interest rate hike. A survey reveals that nearly 60% of economists believe a 25-basis-point increase is likely at the coming policy meeting. With an eye on foreign investment, expectations are growing for a tightening cycle to kick off in October, setting the stage for how future capital flows will be managed.
India could see rebound in investor interest when AI-led rally slows: S Naren
Given the current market dynamics, investors are encouraged to reassess their asset allocation strategies. The evolving US AI landscape combined with heightened geopolitical tensions presents challenges to global markets. While the short-term earnings outlook is promising, the future growth trajectory will largely depend on how the US AI cycle evolves. Gold continues to be a recommended investment choice, yet caution is advised regarding international investments.
RBI likely to hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% in October policy: ET Poll
On Monday, the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee will hold important meetings. Analysts are anticipating a 25 basis points increase in the key interest rate, raising it to 5.50%. The surge in inflation is attributed to elevated crude oil costs and subpar agricultural production. Many economists advocate for a rate hike as a crucial measure to tackle ongoing inflation issues, with outcomes to be revealed on October 7.
RBI could keep rates higher for longer amid global and local risks
With global financial risks in the spotlight, the Reserve Bank of India is indicating a shift towards higher interest rates. Governor Sanjay Malhotra has highlighted emerging challenges, including significant global debt levels and surging asset prices. The rise in US treasury yields and crude oil costs suggests trials ahead for the Indian economy.
RBI MPC must raise rates as inflation and external risks rise
India's economy is currently thriving, boasting a growth rate exceeding 7%, bolstered by diverse sectors and enhancing productivity levels. Nonetheless, escalating oil prices and geopolitical instability present significant threats to economic stability and rising inflation. The Reserve Bank of India faces calls to increase interest rates to effectively address inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the current capital account surplus is insufficient to cover the current account deficit, reflecting persistent economic hurdles.
Will Nifty, Sensex plunge for 9th straight week? TCS Q2, RBI MPC among 4 factors to drive Dalal Street from Monday
India's stock market has faced a challenging downturn, marking eight weeks of losses, the longest in 25 years. Driving this trend are soaring oil prices and rising US bond yields. The sell-off by foreign institutional investors has intensified the downturn. As companies like TCS and DMart prepare for their Q2 earnings, investors hope for signs of resilience amidst a weaker rupee fueling their concerns.
What will bring foreign investors back to Indian stock market? 5 things that should go right
FPIs sold more than Rs 25,000 crore of Indian equities in September as surging US bond yields, elevated crude prices and a weaker rupee reduced India’s appeal. Cooling yields and oil, currency stability, strong Q2 earnings and attractive valuations could bring foreign investors back.
Rate cut cycle near turning point. What lies ahead for Indian bonds?
The RBI is expected to signal monetary tightening at its October policy meeting as stronger economic growth, rising oil prices and elevated US Treasury yields fuel inflation concerns. Higher domestic rates could support the rupee but raise borrowing costs for the government and companies while pressuring equities and consumption.
SBI Research sees CPI inflation at 5.65% in Sept, above 6.5% in Oct-Nov
SBI Research forecasts a rise in CPI inflation to around 5.65 percent in September. They expect it to exceed 6.5 percent during October and November. Inflationary pressures have broadened significantly since the last monetary policy meeting. Additionally, the weakening rupee poses further risks to economic stability. The Reserve Bank of India may adjust its GDP growth and inflation projections during the upcoming policy review.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Rupee under pressure, inflation sticky: Will RBI be forced to rethink rates? Ankita Pathak, Ionic Asset
With the Fed entering a tightening cycle, India faces a tougher monetary policy trade-off as the rupee remains under pressure and inflation shows signs of broadening. Ankita Pathak of Ionic Asset says RBI’s policy flexibility could narrow, while elevated US yields and a stronger dollar may weigh on Indian equities and capital flows.
Gold price today: Precious metal slips ahead of US Jobs data; MCX closed for Gandhi Jayanti
Gold prices fell 0.6% to $4,154.78 an ounce, heading for a second weekly decline as a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields pressured bullion. Traders await US jobs data for Fed-rate clues. With MCX closed for Gandhi Jayanti, international markets, Middle East tensions and weekend developments could drive Monday’s domestic opening.
Finance ministry sees Q2 FY27 GDP growth at 7.3%, flags trade, crude and AI risks
The finance ministry expects India’s real GDP to grow 7.3% in Q2 FY27, above the RBI’s 6.4% forecast, but warned that global uncertainties could weigh on investment. US trade relations, tariff pressures, crude prices and the lack of an India angle in global AI developments are clouding investor interest.
US 10-year yield at 24-year high rattles Nifty, rupee and bond markets. Why is India hit hard?
The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to a 24-year high, triggering a global bond sell-off and pressuring Indian equities, bonds and the rupee. Higher US borrowing costs are raising concerns over FII outflows, currency weakness, imported inflation and RBI policy. Rising crude prices are adding to the pressure on Indian markets.
India bonds slide as US Treasury rout, supply weigh
Indian government bonds experienced a decline as US Treasury yields rose and supply increased ahead of the Reserve Bank of India meeting. The benchmark bond yield reached its highest level in two and a half years. Market analysts expect the RBI to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023. Additionally, bond market activity was affected by global economic conditions and expectations of further rate hikes.
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