SOUTHWEST MONSOON IMPACTS
RBI Policy: Complex oil math explains rise in FY27 inflation estimates
The Reserve Bank of India revised its crude oil price projections for the fiscal year 2026-27. This adjustment has led to increased inflation forecasts, now projected at 5.2% for FY27. The bank notes ongoing supply pressures and volatility in international oil prices contributing to these changes. India's merchandise trade deficit has also widened due to rising imports, especially in crude oil.
More RBI rate hikes loading? Decoding what Malhotra's 'caliberated tightening' stance means
The Reserve Bank of India has increased the repo rate to 5.50% after maintaining it for several months. This shift to a calibrated tightening stance indicates a focus on controlling inflation risks. Retail inflation rose recently, prompting the central bank to adjust its policy outlook for the future. While growth remains firm, inflation now takes priority in decision-making.
RBI has space for more rate hikes despite growth cheer
Quickening inflation, stoked by oil prices and El Nino, could force policymakers to harden further
RBI GDP Growth 2026: Malhotra & Co raise FY27 GDP forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%
RBI GDP Growth 2026: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its growth forecast for fiscal year 2026-27 to 7.1%. This adjustment comes after stronger-than-expected economic performance, including 7.8% growth in the June quarter. The RBI has also raised the policy repo rate to 5.5% while changing its policy stance to calibrated tightening. While domestic consumption remains resilient, global challenges and inflation concerns persist.
RBI MPC Meeting 2026: West Asia conflict keeps global outlook uncertain, says Sanjay Malhotra
The Reserve Bank of India has raised the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. This increase is the first since February 2023 amid economic uncertainties both domestically and globally. Geopolitical developments have contributed to instability in global markets, affecting economic activity. Despite these challenges, the RBI noted that the Indian economy remains strong with broad-based momentum.
RBI MPC Meeting at a Glance: Your one step guide for all decisions
RBI Monetary Policy Meeting Highlights: The Monetary Policy Committee has raised the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that inflation pressures are increasing and rate cuts are not expected soon. The Indian economy continues to show resilience, with GDP growth projected at 7.1% for the year. Inflation is forecasted at 5.2%, with core inflation expected to be around 4.4%.
- Go To Page 1
Double trouble at the dinner table: When will food prices normalise for Indians?
India’s food inflation: Food prices are rising unevenly, impacting household budgets, while inflation is projected to persist in upcoming months. Economists expect food inflation to reach up to 7% in the near future due to various factors. Weather risks, particularly from El Niño, could significantly affect crop yields and consequently food prices. Additionally, global events in West Asia contribute to higher energy and logistic costs.
Weakest monsoon since 2015 prompts ICRA to cut FY27 farm growth forecast
In 2026, the Southwest monsoon recorded rainfall at 87 percent of the long-period average, the lowest since 2015. ICRA has lowered its agriculture growth forecast for FY27 to approximately 1 percent from 1.3 percent due to inadequate rains. Kharif sowing has decreased by 1.2 percent compared to last year, with rice and cotton crops showing notable reductions. Reservoir storage levels have significantly declined, raising concerns for the upcoming rabi season.
Fourth-lowest since 2001: Rainfall 13% below normal
The southern peninsula and East and Northeast India were particularly affected, receiving just 76% and 74% of their respective normal rainfall. East and Northeast India recorded 1,017.1 mm of rainfall, its lowest since 1901, while the southern peninsula received 542 mm, its fourth-lowest rainfall in 125 years. Central India, however, received normal rainfall at 97% of its LPA, while northwest India recorded 94.1%.
Pulses import duties may ease over poor rains
At present, imports of chana attract a 10% duty, while yellow peas are subject to a 30% duty. Tur and urad imports are allowed duty-free until March 31, 2027. The proposed reduction in duties on chana and yellow peas would be to improve domestic availability and contain prices. Prices of chana, moong, matar and tur have risen by up to 10% over the past month, with a 3-5% spike in the past week, as concerns over crop prospects combine with higher festive demand.
India braces weak October rains as El Nino drags monsoon to fourth-lowest since 2001
India’s southwest monsoon ended with rainfall 12.6% below average, making it the fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 2001, according to the IMD. The weather office expects below-average rainfall in October, while most parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the broader October-December period.
12% deficit: Rain report gives a dry reading
The impact is showing in commodity markets: prices of several pulses are up amid crop concerns and festive demand. Maharashtra has declared drought across large parts, and Karnataka is facing similar conditions.
Delhi gets an early taste of winter at 21°C as September temperature hits 18-year low
On Sunday, Delhi's weather took an unexpected turn as the temperature dipped to 21 degrees Celsius, which is three degrees below the average for this time of year and the lowest recorded in September in nearly two decades. The India Meteorological Department noted this drop was due to cool winds and rain from nearby regions, with some locales reporting even more drastic drops, such as Ridge at 16.
Delhi-NCR weather today: Will it rain today in Delhi, Noida, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad and Faridabad? check latest IMD update
Will it rain today in Delhi, Noida, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad and Faridabad? Check the latest weather update from IMD for Delhi, Noida, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad and Faridabad on September 28, today.
Delhi-NCR weather today: Will there be a sudden rainfall in Delhi, Noida, Gurugram, Ghaziabad and Faridabad on September 25? check IMD forecast
Delhi weather today: The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from Delhi two days ahead of schedule, and the IMD has forecast rain, thunderstorms and strong winds across Delhi, Noida, Gurugram, Ghaziabad and Faridabad from September 26, even as a Western Disturbance and below normal minimum temperatures bring an early chill to the region before skies clear by the end of the month.
India's monsoon deficit widens to 15%, strengthening El Nino poses farm risk: Report
India's monsoon rainfall deficit now stands at 15 percent, raising concerns about agricultural productivity. Kharif crop sowing is largely complete, which has partly mitigated the impact of this deficit. Regions like South and East India have experienced the most significant rainfall drops, affecting water availability. Reservoir storage is at 71 percent of total capacity, but southern reservoirs are notably lower at 52 percent.
El Niño arrived early. Why its impact was felt from India to the Panama Canal
El Niño's early onset has triggered a cascade of atypical weather events worldwide. India faced not only monsoon challenges but also significant shifts in policy due to insufficient rainfall. Meanwhile, South America grappled with both severe flooding and drought conditions affecting the Amazon. Australia and Southeast Asia saw extended dry periods, increasing the threat of wildfires. Concurrently, global temperature records underscored the reality of a warming planet amid these disruptions.
India's retail inflation quickens to 4.8% in August from 4.45% in July as food prices exert pressure
India's retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August 2026 from 4.45% in July. Food prices and jewellery significantly contributed to this recent inflationary pressure. The Reserve Bank of India has lowered its FY27 inflation forecast to 5%. Inflation is expected to rise in the near term and peak in the third quarter. The central bank prioritizes price stability while supporting economic growth.
Nilgiris tea production hit by severe drought, El Nino conditions; green leaf supply drops sharply
Severe drought conditions in Nilgiris have drastically reduced green tea leaf supply. Tea factories are experiencing significant revenue losses and production declines. Small farmers face immense hardship due to crop failure and inadequate prices. Rainfall deficits have caused a substantial drop in tea productivity across the region. Government assistance is urgently needed for affected tea growers and workers.
NCDEX launches Chennai rainfall futures to hedge monsoon risks
NCDEX launched RAINCHNNAI, a rainfall-based weather futures contract, enabling participants to hedge Northeast Monsoon risks. Covering September-December, the cash-settled contract uses IMD rainfall data and complements RAINMUMBAI, expanding exchange-traded tools for managing weather-linked financial exposure.
Chennai’s rain gets a market price: NCDEX launches RAINCHNNAI weather derivatives futures contract
NCDEX launched RAINCHNNAI, a futures contract allowing market participants to hedge Chennai’s Northeast Monsoon risks. Utilizing a Cumulative Deviation Rainfall model, it complements the RAINMUMBAI contract, providing a complete monsoon risk management cycle from June through December.
Weak September rains could push FY27 inflation to 5.5% or higher: Report
India's inflation outlook hinges critically on September rainfall performance. A monsoon shortfall could push inflation to 5.5 percent or higher. Kharif sowing has recovered significantly from earlier deficits this season. Reservoir levels offer some cushion but remain below last year's figures. Weak rainfall's impact will emerge gradually, affecting rural demand.
RBI warns food, fuel costs could reignite broader inflation
Most high-frequency indicators showed sustained manufacturing and services activity in July. Merchandise exports and imports experienced double-digit expansion, continuing Q1 momentum. Headline consumer price index inflation edged up, primarily due to supply-side pressures. Stable core inflation reaffirmed lower pass-through of cost pressures to consumers. Liquidity conditions eased, supporting credit growth and foreign capital inflows.
ETMarkets Smart Talk | Have money in FDs? Why retail investors should consider 7-7.25% bond yields: Amit Somani
He believes the current environment offers an opportunity to lock in yields rather than wait for a marginal rise in rates, while investors with a three-year horizon could consider longer-duration bond funds such as corporate bond and G-sec funds.
Skymet cuts 2026 monsoon forecast, sees 70% chance of drought
Skymet revised its 2026 monsoon forecast to 85% of LPA. This downgrade reflects escalating concerns over El Nino's erratic weather patterns. Countrywide rainfall between June and July remained 13% below the long period average. August rainfall is forecast at 84% of LPA, and September at 80%. Unpredictable monsoons due to El Nino reduced India's foodgrain output significantly.
FMCG price hikes could rewrite India’s inflation story: Report
Consumer goods companies' planned price hikes could pressure inflation despite the RBI's outlook. Elara Capital expects the Reserve Bank of India to maintain interest rates through 2026. A potential rate hike is possible in early 2027 if inflation pressures intensify. The central bank may overlook El Nino-led food inflation unless it becomes entrenched. Global central bank actions could influence the RBI's future policy decisions.
RBI's status quo on repo rate to boost festive housing demand, homebuyer confidence: Industry experts
The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% is expected to support homebuyer sentiment and sustain housing demand during the festive season, according to real estate industry experts. The central bank also retained its neutral policy stance, citing uncertainties around inflation, monsoon trends, El Niño, geopolitics and global trade policies.
RBI MPC Meeting 2026: Central bank flags a threat for Indian agriculture warming up in the Pacific
The RBI has flagged El Niño and an uneven southwest monsoon as key risks to agriculture, rural demand and the broader economy, despite cutting its FY27 inflation forecast to 5%. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said government measures, including climate-resilient crops, water conservation and adequate foodgrain stocks, should cushion the impact, though volatile crude prices and geopolitical tensions continue to pose inflation risks.
School holiday tomorrow, August 5: Will schools remain closed as IMD issues heavy rainfall alerts for several states?
School holiday tomorrow, August 5: Unrelenting downpours are impacting various regions across the nation, leaving parents and students on edge for news of a possible school holiday on August 5. The India Meteorological Department warns of moderate to heavy rainfall expected to persist in many states. However, there's been no universal decree for a holiday, and local authorities will evaluate the weather situation before making any decisions on school closures.
Load More
