SILVER MARKET DEFICIT
How are global stock markets reacting to the US midterm election results?
Following the midterm elections where Democrats took control of both Congressional chambers, global stock markets felt the impact. Initial hesitation in European stocks soon gave way to strength, driven by financial sector gains. Precious metals experienced a notable uptick, but defense stocks reeled from concerns over military expenditures. In Asia, markets showed volatility, underscoring investors' adaptative strategies to the altering political scenario.
Silver prices jump over 4% to reclaim $51/oz as Democrats secure US midterm victory. What’s happening?
Silver prices surged over 4% to reclaim the $51/oz mark after Democrats secured a victory in the US midterm elections, weakening the dollar and Treasury yields. However, HSBC expects further gains to be limited as silver trades close to levels justified by fundamentals. Industrial and jewellery demand may weaken, while institutional buying and supply constraints could offer support.
Gold and silver prices correct ahead of Diwali: Buying opportunity or a trap?
Gold and silver have corrected sharply from record highs, but their long-term fundamentals remain supportive. Investors with a longer horizon may consider staggered accumulation, with gold and silver potentially recovering toward $4,750 and $75, respectively, by Diwali 2027.
ETMarkets Smart Talk| Gold, silver or copper? Tata MF fund manager suggests a 50:30:20 commodity allocation: Tapan Patel
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, we speak with Tapan Patel, Fund Manager – Commodities at Tata Asset Management, who shares his outlook on gold, silver, copper and crude oil, explains the changing dynamics driving commodity prices, and suggests a 50:30:20 allocation to gold, copper and silver, respectively, for investors looking to build a commodity portfolio for the long term.
LTCG tax relief for these mutual fund investors proposed by SEBI; know how switching funds for portfolio rebalancing can save tax
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has put forth a proposal to exempt long-term capital gains tax for investors who switch mutual funds. This change if accepted by the government would enable individuals to adjust their portfolios without facing tax penalties, promoting more strategic reinvestment.
India’s illegal gold imports surge 1,500% after tax hike
India's illegal gold imports surged dramatically in the third quarter of 2023, reaching 50 metric tons. This rise is attributed to the government's recent duty hike on gold and silver imports. The increase in informal shipments is linked to previous tax increases that incentivized smuggling and cash sales. Gold demand typically rises during major festivals, though year-on-year metrics indicate a decline.
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Silver crashes below $60 from $122 and enters oversold zone. What should you do?
Silver’s sharp rally has reversed amid expectations of higher US interest rates, rising bond yields and a stronger dollar. HSBC expects limited upside as weaker demand, increasing supply and a narrowing market deficit reduce the chances of the metal returning to $100 soon.
ETMarkets Smart Talk | Gold for ballast, silver for growth; avoid industrial commodities in core portfolios: Saish Sawant
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Saish Sawant, Research Analyst–Commodities at Emkay Global Financial Services, breaks down the contrasting moves across gold, crude and copper.
Gold rate prediction: Will gold price jump after US Midterm elections results? Check critical factors
Gold price saw an uptick ahead of US midterm election day on November 3. Bullion investors are tracking several factors which may drive the gold rate.
Silver loses more than half its value from record high: What went wrong and will it recover?
Silver has plunged more than 58% from its February record high of nearly $120 an ounce to around $50, as profit-booking, weaker industrial demand and shifting macroeconomic conditions weigh on prices. Geojit’s Hareesh V explains what drove the rally, why it unravelled and what could shape silver’s recovery.
Silver market’s big problem may be ending, but a new worry is coming for investors
Silver could move from a supply deficit to a surplus in 2027 as rising inventories, weak jewellery demand and slowing industrial consumption ease market tightness, Metals Focus said. Silver has underperformed gold amid expectations of higher interest rates and falling investor demand.
West Asia crisis so far may cost govt Rs 1.35 lakh crore, spending cuts unlikely: ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar
The West Asia crisis may impose a fiscal burden of approximately Rs 1.35 lakh crore on India. Government spending has generally remained below budget estimates, providing financial flexibility for these pressures. Higher customs duty collections from gold and silver imports might help offset some costs. ICRA anticipates GDP growth to remain robust, exceeding 7 percent in the second quarter of FY27.
Silver prices are tarnished but not forgotten. Why HSBC thinks gains in white metal may be limited?
Silver prices have plunged nearly 60% from their January record high, but HSBC expects limited gains ahead. The bank sees prices consolidating and edging higher in 2027, supported by gold, while rising mine output, recycling supply, weaker industrial demand, a firm US dollar and elevated yields could cap rallies.
HDFC, Kotak, ICICI Prudential among 17 mutual fund houses to temporarily restrict subscriptions in gold ETF FoFs
Around 17 mutual fund houses have temporarily halted fresh subscriptions to gold ETF Fund of Funds from October 15–16, citing SEBI-related instructions or unspecified reasons. Redemptions and existing systematic investments continue, amid rising gold ETF inflows and seasonal festive demand ahead of Dussehra and Diwali.
India's September goods exports rise 23% as imports hit six-month low, narrowing trade deficit
India's goods exports surged by 23% in September, totaling $44.4 billion, supported by significant gains in electronics, petroleum, and engineering goods. At the same time, imports rose by only 8%, leading to a reduced trade deficit of $30.21 billion. This export growth reflects a sustained positive trend in the second quarter of the current fiscal year. Notably, gold imports fell sharply by 81.27%, impacting overall import figures.
HDFC, ICICI Prudential, Tata Mutual Fund halt fresh investments in gold ETF FoFs ahead of festive season
Tata Mutual Fund, HDFC Mutual Fund and ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company have restricted fresh investments in their gold fund-of-funds (FoFs) ahead of the festive season. Existing investors can continue their registered SIP instalments and redeem their investments.
India’s hidden gold chest is giving imported bullion a run for its money
Soaring gold prices are prompting Indians to exchange old jewellery for new designs this festive season rather than cut back on purchases. Old-gold exchanges now account for over 50% of transactions at Tanishq, more than 55% of sales at Kalyan Jewellers and 73% at Joyalukkas in August.
Nifty 50 at 26,500 in 4-5 months? Monarch Networth CEO points to 3 key triggers
Nifty 50 could reach 26,000-26,500 within four to five months, driven by cooling US Treasury yields, dollar weakness, and FII short covering, according to Monarch Networth Capital CEO Gaurav Bhandari. Strong monthly domestic inflows of Rs 31,000 crore provide additional support for valuation re-rating.
Current gold prices provide a better entry point as central bank demand supports the outlook, says Tata Mutual Fund
Gold prices have corrected sharply from their January peak, but Tata Mutual Fund believes the long-term outlook remains supported by central bank buying, fiscal risks and geopolitical uncertainty. The fund house also remains constructive on silver amid persistent supply deficits.
Euro hits 17-month low as French debt fears, US inflation lift dollar
The euro reached a 17-month low against the dollar due to worries over France's budget deficit. Concerns about a potential euro-zone debt crisis have heightened market caution amid political uncertainty. Bonds from more indebted countries faced selling pressure, while German government debt remained favored. The dollar gained in strength partly due to persistent inflation signals in the US economy.
RBI policy confronts a world with long tails
The RBI is likely to begin raising rates in October, with another hike possible in Q4 2026, as inflation risks broaden. Higher oil prices, weather shocks, weaker currency and geopolitical risks are fuelling imported pressures.
Nifty valuations near post-Covid lows. Alchemy Capital’s Alok Agarwal explains what investors should buy now
Nifty valuations have reset sharply from 2024 levels and are now near post-Covid lows, says Alchemy Capital’s Alok Agarwal. He sees the next phase of market growth broadening beyond large caps. Mid- and small-caps, AI infrastructure, healthcare, manufacturing and select defence companies offer opportunities, while global yields and FPI flows remain key.
Under-the-counter cash gold sales boom in India as high prices and taxes bite
High gold prices, combined with higher taxes, are encouraging more buyers to engage in cash transactions. This trend allows buyers to save significantly compared to official market prices based on reported cases. As import levies have doubled, the informal gold market is thriving, especially in the lead-up to wedding season. Retail customers are discovering varying discounts, influencing their purchasing decisions significantly.
Poor man’s gold may become India's next big story as the silver horse rises
Silver is gaining ground in India as record gold prices push consumers towards a more affordable precious metal. Prices have surged 160% in two years, boosting interest in jewellery, gifting and investment. Jewellers report rising silver demand, particularly among younger buyers, but high prices remain a constraint.
Gold price prediction: Experts predict Gold rate for last three months of 2026, first half of 2027
Gold price has corrected sharply in September after gaining around 9 per cent in August, with prices down nearly 8 per cent during the month so far.
Gold price prediction: Gold rate down for weekly loss, silver price is up. Here's what to expect
Gold rate prediction: Gold prices rose on Friday but was on track for a weekly loss, as rising US Treasury yields and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes weighed on the metal.
Crude above $100 may push India inflation to 6%, RBI could hike rates 50 bps: Kotak
The elevated crude oil prices pose a direct threat to India's macroeconomic stability, with retail inflation projected to inch toward the 5.8 to 6.0 per cent mark by next quarter if prices stay elevated, according to Anindya Banerjee, Head - Commodity and Currency, Kotak Securities.
Behind the Modi-Xi border thaw, India's dependence on Chinese imports, especially rare earths, keeps deepening
India faces a significant trade deficit with China, importing substantially more goods than it exports. Chinese firms offer superior price and tech competitiveness, impacting Indian industries. India relies heavily on China for critical inputs like rare earths, affecting various sectors.
Customs duty hike impact: Gold imports contract to USD 2.3 billion in August
India’s gold imports declined significantly in August following an increase in customs duty, while silver imports rose sharply during the month. However, during the April-August period, cumulative gold imports increased, whereas silver imports declined. Switzerland remained the largest source of gold imports, accounting for a significant share.
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