RBI RATE PATH
India bonds to stay hemmed in by oil, Treasury moves ahead of inflation data
Indian government bonds are anticipated to trade between softer oil prices and rising US yields. The market is waiting for domestic inflation data that could influence the Reserve Bank of India's rate strategy. A Reuters poll estimates an increase in annual consumer inflation, potentially leading to further tightening by the RBI. Investors are cautious ahead of a significant bond auction scheduled for Friday.
Uday Kotak says $700 bn outstanding FII payments will boost market, sees AI worries driving flows to India
Veteran banker Uday Kotak expects India to benefit from a potential reversal in global investment flows as concerns over excessive AI spending weigh on US markets. He highlighted $700 billion in outstanding foreign portfolio investments, flagged the possibility of further RBI rate hikes and advised investors to focus on quality stocks and medium-term strategies.
India bonds climb in step with Treasuries as oil sinks
Indian government bonds increased for the fourth consecutive session following a Democratic win in the US midterm elections. This victory led to a decline in crude oil prices, easing inflation concerns for India. The 10-year US Treasury yield also fell significantly, impacting investors' expectations. A trader noted that upcoming inflation data would be critical for assessing the Reserve Bank of India's rate outlook.
Crypto cards enter RBI's radar as Indians use offshore wallets for everyday payments
Offshore crypto cards that allow Indian residents to spend digital assets on domestic purchases and withdraw cash have come under the scrutiny of the RBI and Financial Intelligence Unit. Several users have reported card deactivations in recent days, while authorities are understood to be examining potential violations of payment regulations and FEMA.
Niti Aayog's Lahiri flags growth risks in case of further monetary policy tightening
In India, it's essential for policymakers to harmonize growth output with inflation expectations. Niti Aayog’s Ashok Lahiri pointed out the importance of addressing inflation alongside job creation. He urged banks to play a pivotal role in linking enterprises with financial support and investment options. To capitalize on its natural resources, West Bengal must focus on industry attraction, while effective land acquisition and good infrastructure remain key for business development.
8th Pay Commission pension calculator: How Rs 25,000 to Rs 75,000 basic pensions can change at 2.0, 2.25 and 2.57 fitment factors
8th Pay Commission news: The central government has many more pensioners than employees. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw announced DA and DR hikes that will benefit both employees and pensioners. The 8th Pay Commission will consider various recommendations regarding pension adjustments. Estimates show potential pension increases based on fitment factors of 2.0, 2.25, and 2.57. However, the final decision will be made once the Commission releases its report.
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G-Sec 10-year yields come down 5 bps to 7.39% on Fed signals
The yield on 10-year benchmark government bonds decreased to 7.39% on Thursday, marking the largest fall since July. US Treasury yields eased following comments from the Federal Reserve indicating a less hawkish stance. Oil prices declined modestly, contributing to the drop in bond yields. Forecasts suggest bond yields may rise to 7.70% to 7.75% by December. The rupee remained almost unchanged, closing at 95.26 due to several market factors.
India only major emerging economy set to reduce debt ratio by 2031: RBI Deputy Governor
India is projected to be the only emerging market economy among nine economies with gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding USD 1 trillion to reduce its government debt-to-GDP ratio between 2025 and 2031, Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said, highlighting the country's stronger fiscal position amid rising global debt and borrowing costs.
Global Market Today: Asian stocks advance on resurgent AI optimism
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%, as benchmarks in Australia, Japan and South Korea advanced. The Kospi Index rose 2.6%, with SK Hynix Inc.’s stock climbing after the company reported operating profit that beat estimates. The chipmaker is planning a total of 100 trillion won ($75.4 billion) in shareholder returns for 2026.
India benchmark yield falls most in 3 months on value buying
Indian government bonds are witnessing a resurgence despite previous instability, as the benchmark 10-year yield has notably decreased. Brent crude prices varied between $114.40 and $117 a barrel during Asian trading. These fluctuations within the debt market have uplifted investor sentiments, and the Indian rupee appears to be stabilizing, contributing positively.
RBI rate hikes: How short-duration funds and high-quality corporate bonds can protect your debt portfolio
Investors must position fixed income portfolio for further rate hikes. But this cycle may look different.
SBI helped save YES Bank, Japan came aboard, and now an ₹8,415-crore ghost is crashing its comeback
YES Bank’s ₹8,415-crore AT1 bond write-off, carried out during its 2020 reconstruction, has returned to the spotlight after the Supreme Court upheld a ruling quashing the decision. The verdict could have implications for the lender’s capital position, earnings and bondholders, with the eventual financial impact depending on how the ruling is implemented. The development comes as YES Bank continues its recovery and Japan’s SMBC holds a 24.9% stake, making the outcome significant for the bank, its investors and its future financial position.
India bonds sink deeper on RBI commentary, inflation concerns
Indian government bonds are currently facing notable losses, pushing the 10-year yield to its highest since March 2023. This downturn comes in the wake of hawkish remarks from Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra about financial stability. Additionally, India's wholesale inflation saw an unexpected rise in September, leading to growing concerns over potential future monetary policy shifts.
Inflation is up again; should you invest in FDs now or wait for interest rates to rise further? Check what a 1% hike means for your Rs 2 lakh FD
FD rate hike: In September 2026, retail inflation soared to 5.54%, sparking opinions about the possibility of interest rate hikes on fixed deposits. Analysts predict that the Reserve Bank of India may persist in raising the repo rate to combat persistent inflation. Investors must decide whether to invest now or postpone for possibly better FD rates.
Rupee is undervalued, not unmoored: RBI must ride out global market turbulence
The rupee’s weakness reflects global capital-flow turbulence rather than a deterioration in India’s economic fundamentals, with its inflation-adjusted value at levels last seen during the 2013-14 taper tantrum. RBI must contain volatility without defending a particular exchange-rate level, while higher interest rates and inflation control help restore investor confidence.
Deposit rate hikes unlikely for 3 months; RBI action to help NIMs: SBI chairman C S Setty
State Bank of India Chairman C S Setty stated there will be no deposit rate hikes for the next three months. He cited sufficient liquidity in the system as a key reason for this prediction. Setty mentioned that credit growth is expected to sustain at 14 to 15 percent over time. He emphasized that banks need to ensure positive real interest rates for depositors amid rising inflation.
D-St braces for weak opening on negative GIFT Nifty cues
On Wednesday, the Nifty fell by 0.8% to 22,603 due to weak global cues and RBI's policy changes. Concurrently, the India VIX increased by 2% as market fears grew. Foreign portfolio investors sold shares worth Rs 6,121 crore while domestic investors purchased shares amounting to Rs 4,596 crore. The rupee weakened to 96.43 against the US dollar amid foreign capital outflows.
RBI’s rate hike matters. Its shift to calibrated tightening matters more
The RBI’s 25-basis-point repo rate hike to 5.5% marks a shift towards calibrated tightening as inflation risks broaden amid elevated oil prices, weather disruptions and resilient domestic demand. With inflation expected to average nearly 5.8% over the next three quarters, the policy move signals scope for further rate increases.
Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide stock market action on Thursday
Indian markets ended lower on Wednesday as the Sensex fell 429 points and Nifty dropped over 173 points, snapping a two-session rally. Investors reacted to the RBI’s rate hike and calibrated tightening stance, while banking stocks gained and broader sentiment remained cautious.
Bitcoin drops over 3% to $83,000 after losing key support; $394 million liquidated in one hour
Bitcoin fell nearly 3% toward $83,000 after losing key on-chain support, while Ethereum dropped over 5%. A sharp leveraged sell-off triggered major liquidations, with analysts citing macro uncertainty, derivatives unwinding and weakening technical levels as pressures on crypto markets.
More RBI rate hikes loading? Decoding what Malhotra's 'caliberated tightening' stance means
The Reserve Bank of India has increased the repo rate to 5.50% after maintaining it for several months. This shift to a calibrated tightening stance indicates a focus on controlling inflation risks. Retail inflation rose recently, prompting the central bank to adjust its policy outlook for the future. While growth remains firm, inflation now takes priority in decision-making.
India bonds inch lower before pivotal RBI decision
Amid the backdrop of escalating US Treasury yields and surging oil prices, Indian government bond traders are revamping their strategies. The Reserve Bank of India is poised to announce a key policy decision that may affect liquidity and inflation, with a 25-basis-point interest rate hike anticipated. Market sentiment remains cautiously tense as everyone awaits clarity on how this will shape the financial landscape.
Explained: How RBI rate hike may impact Sensex, Nifty after 8-week losing streak
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to announce a 25-basis point rate hike in its upcoming meeting. Analysts assert that this rate hike has already been largely priced into the stock market. While sectors such as real estate and autos may experience some volatility, clean balance sheets could mitigate impacts. The market's movement will depend more on corporate earnings than on monetary policy adjustments.
D-St set for a negative opening as GIFT Nifty signals weak start
Benchmark Nifty experienced a rebound on expiry day due to a drop in India VIX and Brent crude oil prices. Investor attention is now focused on the forthcoming RBI policy outcome amid ongoing rupee weakness. The rupee declined against the dollar amidst foreign capital outflows and uncertainties surrounding a US-Iran deal. Stocks in the F&O ban included SAIL, Bandhan Bank, and Ambuja Cement.
Reducing commissions may help curb mis-selling of insurance products; IRDAI’s role remains crucial
The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India has announced new proposals to limit commission rates for insurance distributors. This move seeks to tackle high distribution costs, ultimately enhancing the policyholder experience. By implementing reforms aimed at fostering customer-centric practices, the initiative aims to curtail the mis-selling of insurance products. Insurers must align their compensation methods with the value delivered to customers.
Indian bonds take a breather before RBI policy outcome
Amidst anticipation for the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision, Indian government bonds have remained relatively stable. The yield for the 6.94% 2036 bond is currently 7.2127%. Analysts predict this week could mark the central bank's first rate hike since 2023. Additionally, state borrowing is projected to surpass market expectations, which could impact supply dynamics. Meanwhile, recent US Treasury yields have offered short-term relief amid shifting global financial conditions.
Markets bet on RBI rate hike as inflation pressure builds
As inflation concerns rise, investors are putting their faith in the Reserve Bank of India to implement an interest rate hike. A survey reveals that nearly 60% of economists believe a 25-basis-point increase is likely at the coming policy meeting. With an eye on foreign investment, expectations are growing for a tightening cycle to kick off in October, setting the stage for how future capital flows will be managed.
RBI could keep rates higher for longer amid global and local risks
With global financial risks in the spotlight, the Reserve Bank of India is indicating a shift towards higher interest rates. Governor Sanjay Malhotra has highlighted emerging challenges, including significant global debt levels and surging asset prices. The rise in US treasury yields and crude oil costs suggests trials ahead for the Indian economy.
RBI may increase rates by 0.25 pc in Oct policy amid inflationary pressures, experts poll shows
The RBI is expected to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in its October policy review as inflation pressures build from higher crude prices, the West Asia conflict and global monetary tightening, according to a PTI poll of economists and bankers. Most also expect a hawkish tone, a higher FY27 inflation forecast and possibly further rate hikes later in the fiscal year.
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