INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS
Yuan holds firm against dollar as seasonal corporate selling offsets greenback strength
China's yuan remained stable against the US dollar as seasonal year-end dollar sales by exporters offset greenback strength following robust US jobs data. Beijing's efforts to manage currency appreciation, alongside foreign exchange reserve adjustments, supported stability. Meanwhile, inflation trends and subdued domestic demand continued influencing monetary policy and currency movements.
US stocks face volatile week as AI selloff, inflation data and tech earnings loom
US stocks face a volatile week as investors brace for October CPI inflation data and key tech earnings following a sharp AI-led selloff. Regulatory concerns post-US midterms, alongside Fed rate hike expectations, have pushed the Nasdaq into correction territory despite the S&P 500 maintaining gains for 2026.
Japan bond yields rise as safe-haven demand eases after tech rebound
Japanese government bond yields rebounded as recovering technology stocks reduced safe-haven demand following last week's sharp selloff. Strong US jobs data and expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening also influenced investor sentiment across the bond market.
India short bonds may underperform on rate hikes, cash squeeze
India's bond market is experiencing changes due to recent interest rate hikes and tightening liquidity conditions. The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to raise interest rates significantly in the coming months. Short-term bonds are expected to be more sensitive to these monetary conditions, leading to their underperformance. There are expectations for the yield curve to flatten further as short-term yields rise.
ETMarkets Smart Talk| Higher yields offer opportunities, but investors need not rush into long-duration funds: Shriram Ramanathan
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Shriram Ramanathan, CIO–Fixed Income at HSBC Mutual Fund, discusses the changing dynamics in India’s bond market, the outlook for interest rates and yields, and how investors should navigate the choice between debt mutual funds, fixed deposits and government securities. He also explains why liquidity and flexibility could matter more than rushing to lock into longer-duration bets in the current environment.
Gold edges up as softer crude tempers inflation concerns
Gold prices edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices eased inflation concerns, though gains were capped by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep US interest rates higher
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US employers add 165,000 jobs in October, but worrying joblessness trends remain: Here's what the latest numbers mean for you
US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, resulting in a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent. Average hourly earnings saw a year-over-year increase of 3.1 percent, although it remains below the inflation rate. The US Federal Reserve might be considering a potential interest rate hike after the robust jobs report, which could be announced next month.
Dollar jumps after strong US payrolls report
The US dollar index jumped significantly following the Labor Department's report indicating an increase of 165,000 jobs last month, which far exceeded economists' forecasts. As a result, the probability of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve climbed to nearly 80% for next month. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials voiced concerns about ongoing inflation, leading to declines for other currencies such as the euro and sterling against the dollar.
Gold drops as strong US payrolls boost dollar, yields
In light of stronger-than-anticipated US payroll figures, gold prices dipped significantly as the data suggested a robust labor market. This development heightened expectations for sustained high-interest rates from the Federal Reserve, bolstering the dollar's strength. Spot gold saw a decline of 0.3% to reach $4,074.36 per ounce, while US gold futures fell by 0.9%. However, Indian retail demand picked up ahead of Diwali festivities, taking advantage of the lower prices.
US treasury bond prices down on Friday, Yields on 10-year, 30-year, 2-year jump. Check latest rates
When US bond prices fall, yields rise. Despite Friday's jump, yields have steadily moved lower in recent weeks. For the week, the 10-year yield posted its fifth straight decline
Federal Reserve rate hike bets strengthen as US jobs growth beats estimates
Stronger than expected US jobs growth has revived expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate hike, with employers adding 165,000 jobs in October against estimates of 65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while markets raised the probability of a quarter point hike to 85% and brought forward expectations of another increase.
ETMarkets Commodity Talk| Building a 5-year portfolio? Why gold could take the largest share of your commodity allocation, Deveya Gaglani decodes
In this edition of ETMarkets Commodity Talk, Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst – Commodities at Axis Direct, shares his views on the evolving commodity landscape and the role of gold, silver and industrial metals in a diversified portfolio. He also explains why gold could form the largest component of a long-term commodity allocation, while highlighting the risks of blindly buying the dip or chasing a sharp rally.
Dollar holds, yen gains as equity rout saps risk appetite ahead of payrolls
The dollar maintained its ground against key currencies as traders flocked to safe havens following a volatile market downturn. Concerns mounted over a potential Democratic majority in Congress, raising alarms about stricter regulations on the artificial intelligence sector. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds declined, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve interest rate outlooks. The euro remained stable against the dollar, with the yen and Swiss franc making gains.
Fed's Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin favour gradual rate hikes as inflation stays high
Two officials from the Federal Reserve have supported modest and steady interest rate increases to combat high inflation. They believe these adjustments should minimize disruptions for households, businesses, and financial markets. The Fed has left interest rates unchanged recently, with discussions ongoing about future hikes in December and early next year. The political landscape has shifted following the midterm elections, potentially changing price pressures in the economy.
US yields fall in choppy session as oil rises and equities sink
As geopolitical tensions change the landscape, US Treasuries are witnessing a spike in demand while equity markets take a hit and oil prices show volatility. Investors are reassessing their outlook on the US-Iran relations following new election results. The labor market remains resilient with dropping unemployment claims and heightened productivity levels, pointing towards ongoing inflation risk.
Bank of England hikes rates to 4%, first raise since 2023, says more may come amid high UK inflation
In a decisive move, the Bank of England has escalated interest rates to 4% amidst spiraling inflation, projected to hit 4.8% in Q2 next year. Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that further hikes may be necessary, especially with ongoing global conflicts. Market reactions were notably favorable, with the British pound gaining strength against the US dollar. Enhancements in economic data have prompted economists to revise growth forecasts upwards.
Bank of England raises rates for first time since 2023, says more may come
British inflation is likely to reach around 5% in the middle of next year, the BoE said, more than double the central bank's target and a blow for new Prime Minister Andy Burnham who has sought to ease of cost of living pressures.
Eurozone bond yields edge lower as oil prices stabilise, ECB rate bets ease
Eurozone government bond yields edged lower as oil prices stabilised and investors assessed easing geopolitical risks following US midterm elections. However, rising inflation, potential ECB rate hikes and political uncertainty in France continued to shape market sentiment and influence European debt markets.
Bank of England set to raise interest rates for first time in three years as Iran war fuels inflation
The Bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years as the US-Iran conflict fuels energy prices and inflation. Policymakers remain divided over the need for further tightening and the risks to economic growth.
BOJ policymakers signal scope for faster interest rate hikes
Bank of Japan policymakers are signalling support for further interest rate hikes, with some open to accelerating monetary tightening if inflation rises faster than expected, minutes of the September meeting showed. The BOJ raised its benchmark rate to 1.25%, a 31-year high, as it seeks to keep inflation near its 2% target.
Gold's 192% Dhanteras rally: Rs 92,000 jump in five years, but can the yellow metal reclaim its lost shine in 2027?
Gold has delivered nearly 192% returns over the past five Dhanteras celebrations, but a sharp correction from its January peak has clouded the outlook. Experts assess whether investors should buy the dip, while brokerages share their gold and silver price targets for 2027.
ETMarkets Commodity Talk| A 10% allocation to gold and silver? Motilal Oswal's Manav Modi explains the commodity playbook
In this edition of ETMarkets Commodity Talk, Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, decodes the contrasting moves in gold, crude and copper. He also shares his views on the role of commodities in a long-term portfolio, the common mistakes investors should avoid, and why an allocation of at least 10% to gold and silver could be considered based on an investor's risk profile and investment horizon.
Dollar edges lower as US election outcome cheers global markets
In the aftermath of the Democrat wins during the US midterm elections, the dollar experienced a dip against various currencies. The results alleviated worries regarding political turmoil, sparking an upswing in global stock markets and US Treasuries. Additionally, surging expectations around further interest rate increases from the Bank of Japan bolstered the yen.
Eurozone bond yields steady as investors await inflation data; US Treasury yields ease after midterm elections
Eurozone government bond yields were steady as investors awaited October inflation data, while US Treasury yields declined after Democrats gained control of both chambers of Congress. Markets also assessed the likelihood of further European Central Bank rate hikes in December.
Glittering Prospects: Why Gold is the ultimate sweet spot this Dhanteras
Gold is trading over 20% below its peak ahead of Dhanteras, offering long-term investors a potential staggered buying opportunity. Central-bank demand, ETF inflows and rupee weakness could support prices, with analysts projecting returns of 15–20% by next Dhanteras.
SBI share price target: Jefferies, Motilal, others see up to 34% upside in state lender. Buy, sell or hold?
State Bank of India has seen a remarkable 15% increase in profits year-on-year, totaling Rs 23,038 crore for the second quarter. With a loan book surpassing Rs 52 lakh crore and a 10% rise in interest income, brokerages have set optimistic Buy ratings on SBI shares, suggesting target prices between Rs 1,225 and Rs 1,350. Despite this positive outlook, management highlighted possible obstacles from macroeconomic shifts and potential treasury losses.
ETMarkets Smart Talk| FDs, government bonds or debt mutual funds: How should investors choose in today's market?
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, we speak with Siddharth Chaudhary, Head – Fixed Income, Bajaj Asset Management Limited, who shares his outlook on interest rates, bond yields and liquidity, and explains how investors can navigate the changing fixed-income landscape while balancing returns, risk and liquidity needs.
Goldman Sachs expects Bank of England to raise rates again in February
Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook on the Bank of England's interest rates, now predicting a possible quarter-point rise in November's monetary policy meeting. This would be the first increase since 2023, influenced by climbing energy costs and robust economic growth. Although immediate policy shifts are unlikely, the Bank will vigilantly observe inflation risks, maintaining rates at 4.25% through mid-next year.
Explained: Why gold investors should tone down expectations as yellow metal plunges to a 1-year low
Gold has fallen more than 30% from its January record high, with rising oil prices, inflation concerns and expectations of further Fed rate hikes adding to pressure. Analysts remain cautious about a near-term recovery, even as major banks retain bullish forecasts for 2027.
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