HIGH INFLATION
India bonds give up gains as high oil prices weigh
Indian government bonds declined on Monday due to rising oil prices affecting market sentiment and the rupee. The rupee fell for the third consecutive day, adding pressure on bond yields and currency. India's central bank is expected to consider interest rate hikes to stabilize the currency amidst inflation concerns. The Reserve Bank of India has raised its inflation forecast, anticipating a peak of 6% in consumer prices.
Asia-focused banks face bond market risks ahead of Q3 earnings
Asia-focused banks face mounting pressure from rising bond yields, inflation and currency volatility ahead of third-quarter earnings. HSBC, Standard Chartered and DBS confront profitability and capital risks, while Japanese and Southeast Asian lenders navigate bond losses, funding pressures and economic uncertainty.
Global Market: BOJ nears historic inflation milestone, shifts focus to rate hikes
The Bank of Japan is expected to declare its nearly 14-year battle to achieve 2% inflation successful while keeping interest rates unchanged at 1.25%. With wage growth and inflation expectations strengthening, policymakers may signal further tightening, potentially in December, as they balance persistent price pressures against economic growth and financial stability.
ECB Meeting: Five key questions on rates, inflation and Lagarde's exit
The European Central Bank is widely expected to hold interest rates at 2.5% amid elevated energy prices, eurozone inflation and France’s financial instability. With inflation reaching 3.8% in September, markets anticipate further rate hikes. Policymakers will assess economic risks, bond market pressures and leadership changes before signalling future monetary policy decisions.
Lifestyle inflation: Earning more, saving less? How to enjoy life without sacrificing your financial goals
Find out how lifestyle creep undermines wealth creation and how to enjoy a better standard of living without sacrificing your financial goals.
Retirement planning: Why the US retirement model may not work for Indian retirees
The Indian institutional framework poses unexpected risks. Not only is insurance costly for seniors, it’s not available as a standardised social welfare benefit. Unexpected spikes in health cost can throw off a retiree’s spending patterns well out of balance. Reliance on children and privatisation of senior health care poses a serious risk.
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RBI rate hikes: How short-duration funds and high-quality corporate bonds can protect your debt portfolio
Investors must position fixed income portfolio for further rate hikes. But this cycle may look different.
Oil, US Treasuries prop up Indian bonds
Indian government bonds increased in early trading as oil prices declined, following a previous rally. The Brent crude price slipped significantly after hitting a six-month high last week, which impacted the debt market. Foreign investors have sold a substantial amount of Indian government debt since August, contributing to a prolonged rise in benchmark yields. Concerns over inflation and the Reserve Bank of India's rate decisions are influencing market sentiments.
Gold lingers near three-month low ahead of Fed policy meeting
Gold prices dipped close to a three-month low, reflecting worries from investors as the Federal Reserve meeting approaches. While an interest rate hike appears more likely for December, this week’s chances remain low. In the oil market, prices fell back after a prior rise, amid ongoing supply worries linked to conflicts.
Fed expected to pause rate hikes ahead of US midterms
The US Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is expected to result in steady interest rates. High inflation continues to challenge economic policies, with rates anticipated to rise later this year. The Federal Open Market Committee will analyze data amidst political considerations ahead of the midterm elections. Analysts believe that while inflation remains a concern, a cautious approach will likely be taken.
Brazil presidential election results: Five economic challenges facing re-elected President Lula
Brazil's economy is encountering significant challenges as President Lula starts his fourth term in January. Soaring public debt and rising mandatory spending limit budget flexibility, complicating fiscal management. High interest rates and persistent inflation hinder economic growth, impacting household and business debt levels. Lula's ability to implement reforms may be constrained by a conservative Congress, complicating his agenda.
Charting the global economy: Euro area business activity cools
The euro area’s private sector slowed more than expected in October, weighed down by France as the region’s No. 2 economy grapples with fiscal and political tensions.
Fed expected to hold rates steady days ahead of US midterms
The US Federal Reserve appears set to hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week, analysts say, despite stubbornly high inflation and with markets pricing in at least one rate hike before year-end. The Fed has missed its long-term two-percent target for inflation for more than five years, and at its last meeting in September the FOMC voted to raise the key federal funds rate for the first time in three years, lifting the target range to 3.75 percent to 4.0 percent.
US consumer sentiment near record low ahead of midterm elections
In October, consumer sentiment in the U.S. plummeted to a concerning 48.0, driven by rising prices and economic worries amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Survey results suggest that independents show the steepest drop in confidence, approaching historical lows. Additionally, inflation expectations have risen, marking a continuation of trends from earlier this year. Federal Reserve officials are attentively observing these shifts as they plan future interest rate adjustments.
Silver hits 11-month low of ₹1.95 lakh as crude stokes inflation fears
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), silver futures fell ₹6,799 per kg, or 3.4%, to ₹1,92,800 per kg on Friday. Prices have plunged ₹32,955, or more than 14%, over the past 10 sessions. A recent appreciation in the rupee has provided only limited relief against the decline in international prices.
RBI governor backs Tata Sons classification, says large NBFCs must follow listing norms
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra explains the need for Tata Sons to register as an upper-layer NBFC. Large NBFCs handling public funds are required to follow specific regulations, including mandatory listing. This classification stems from the systemic risks posed by financial leverage within group companies. Malhotra emphasizes the RBI's commitment to price stability and economic growth amidst stable inflation levels.
RBI's Rs 2.5 lakh crore liquidity infusion raises questions over tightening policy signal: SBI Report
In its report, SBI said the RBI had consistently signalled its commitment to monetary tightening through its policy resolution, the Governor’s statement and the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The liquidity infusion through repo auctions, however, appeared difficult to reconcile with this approach.
US business activity cools in October; strong demand fueling price pressures
US business activity experienced a slight slowdown in October, though strong demand allowed price increases. The S&P Global Composite PMI Output Index indicated sustained economic expansion, even amid challenges. New orders received by businesses rose slightly, with the services sector seeing growth. Although price pressures persisted, employment in manufacturing increased significantly, highlighting capacity expansion. Economists anticipate further inflation concerns due to ongoing supply chain issues and geopolitical tensions.
Inflation stays high, growth slows, central bankers face a bigger challenge, says RBI Guv Malhotra
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra highlighted the challenges faced by central banks due to global uncertainties and supply chain issues. He noted the elevated global inflation and lower growth forecasts impacting monetary policy decisions worldwide. India entered this phase with strong macroeconomic fundamentals, maintaining growth at 7.8% despite rising inflation levels. The RBI's goal remains to achieve price stability while ensuring financial market order and health.
US bond market down: Why are 10-year, 30-year, 2-year treasury yield notes are falling? Check latest predictions
US bond Yields have dropped in recent days, as concerns about a slowdown in AI spending and its impact on economic growth have overshadowed economic data, which showed persistent inflation pressures.
MPC minutes: Two more interest rate hikes on cards, maybe even a third
Market participants and economists now expect a 25-bps increase in the December and February reviews. A further 25-bps increase in April isn't ruled out if crude oil prices remain persistently above $100. One basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. "After the minutes were released, we think the probability of a consecutive hike in December has increased. Our terminal rate forecast is now at 6% for this hiking cycle and we expect the cycle to be rather shallow," Barclays said in a note.
Gold price today: Gold rate crashes to lowest in 2 months, silver price drops. Here's what to expect
Gold rate prediction: Goldman Sachs expects one more 25-basis-point hike in December, lifting the peak policy rate range to 4.00 per cent-4.25 per cent.
Indian bonds tumble on oil surge, RBI rate hike fears
Indian government bonds experienced a decline as the benchmark yield exceeded 7.45% on Thursday. Oil prices rose significantly, reaching $112.50 per barrel in Asian trading amid geopolitical tensions. The Reserve Bank of India has raised its repo rate to 5.50%, indicating a potential for further hikes. Inflation concerns are mounting, with expectations for retail inflation to surpass the central bank's tolerance limit.
When it comes to Trump's economy, these are the numbers that matter before mid-term elections
United States President Donald Trump attempted to convince voters before the upcoming mid-term elections that the American economy is growing. However, voters have maintained the negative effects of inflation caused by the Iran war. The economy is seeing slowing job growth and widening income inequality, with high interest rates encumbering housing and automobile purchases.
Global Market: BOJ's Himino says Japan inflation near 2% target, signals further rate hikes
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino says underlying inflation is nearing the central bank’s 2% target, while accommodative financial conditions and rising cost pressures strengthen expectations of further interest rate hikes.
Global Market: European shares struggle for direction as France unrest weighs on sentiment
European shares remained stagnant amid escalating unrest in France, raising alarms over fiscal health and growth prospects. While some optimism was generated from positive earnings reports by companies like Randstad and EssilorLuxottica, a downgrading of Carrefour's earnings forecast dampened investor sentiment. Additionally, new consumer inflation figures from Britain added layers of complexity to the interest rate and economic stability outlook, resulting in a market atmosphere marked by uncertainty and hesitation.
Global Market: UK inflation rises to 3.5% in September, boosting rate hike bets
UK inflation rises to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, exceeding expectations as higher fuel prices linked to the Iran war add to price pressures. Sticky services and core inflation strengthen expectations of a potential Bank of England rate hike.
Indian bonds sell off on oil shock ahead of RBI policy minutes
Indian government bonds experienced a significant decline due to rising oil prices, raising concerns about inflation among investors. The benchmark bond yield has reached its highest point since March, leading to a more cautious trading environment. Additionally, consumer inflation in India rose to 5.54%, with forecasts indicating further increases in October.
Bank of Japan may raise inflation forecast, stand pat on rates, sources say
The Bank of Japan plans to slightly upgrade its fiscal year 2027 inflation forecasts this month. Interest rates are expected to remain stable at 1.25% during the upcoming policy meeting in late October. While inflation risks are present, there is no immediate urgency for further rate hikes. Recent data indicates that inflationary pressures are not escalating significantly at this time.
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