GLOBAL TENSIONS
‘America’s Nostradamus’ warns of Iran nuclear threat, MBS prophecy, 27-year war, US collapse by 2028 and more chilling predictions
John Hogue, dubbed “America’s Nostradamus,” predicts a possible nuclear conflict involving Iran, a 27-year global war and the collapse of US economic power by 2028. Here’s what he claims about Nostradamus’ Mabus prophecy and rising global tensions.
Global Market: European shares flat as investors assess earnings, France turmoil
European shares traded flat as investors weighed corporate earnings and political uncertainty in France. Falling oil prices, driven by hopes of easing US-Iran tensions, supported travel and leisure stocks, while energy shares declined.
India appears better stocked for West Asia crisis, but oil shock threatens
In West Asia, tensions are affecting energy and fertilizer supplies, prompting adjustments by the Indian government. Freight costs have surged to unprecedented levels due to rising insurance and shipping difficulties, impacting global supply chains. Current crude prices are the highest in twelve years, straining Indian refiners and state-run retailers. The government faces challenges with increasing fiscal and current account deficits due to rising import costs.
French bond selloff eases as country spared ratings downgrade
On Monday, the selloff in French government bonds paused after Moody's maintained its rating of Aa3. Weekend protests were mostly peaceful, reducing tensions in the country. France's 10-year OAT yield fell following a rise to its highest level since June 2002. The focus now turns to the European Central Bank's upcoming policy decision on Thursday. Analysts expect the ECB to monitor the rising yields closely and evaluate their impact.
FCNR(B) scheme has bought India 3-5 years, but $170 billion repayment cliff looms: Uday Kotak
Uday Kotak has described India’s $130-billion-plus FCNR(B) mobilisation as a “strong insurance policy” against global shocks, but warned that repayments including interest could reach $160-170 billion over the next three to five years. He said the buffer gives India time to strengthen its economy, but should not substitute for structural reforms, investment in technology and efforts to improve domestic competitiveness.
BRICS Parliamentary Forum: Om Birla says parliaments can ease global tensions, build trust among nations
Om Birla highlighted the essential role parliaments play in fostering cooperation and dialogue among nations. He spoke at the 12th BRICS Parliamentary Forum held in New Delhi. Birla addressed several global challenges including wars, economic instability, and climate change that transcend borders. He emphasized the importance of mutual understanding in reducing tensions and resolving global issues. India became the chair of the forum during the 11th meeting in Brazil.
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Rupee falls 5 paise to 94.98 against US dollar in early trade
In early trading, the rupee was priced at 94.98 against the US dollar, slipping by 5 paise primarily due to high crude oil rates and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Despite the dollar index facing a slight decline of 0.15 percent, India's forex reserves have seen a downturn, potentially affecting the currency's stability. However, the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention might bolster the rupee at lower trading levels.
BlackRock stays cautious on Indian equities despite cheaper valuations
BlackRock Investment Institute has not yet adopted a bullish stance on Indian equities due to ongoing uncertainties. The firm anticipates greater clarity on corporate earnings and energy prices before changing its outlook. Despite elevated energy costs, India's economic resilience remains noteworthy amidst geopolitical tensions. Foreign investors have been net sellers of Indian equities for several months, impacting market performance.
India must bolster tech, economic resilience: Dean Grandy, KPMG's global head for government and public sector
India is encouraged to boost its domestic technology capabilities and economic resilience to face geopolitical tensions. Strengthening self-sufficiency in artificial intelligence and infrastructure is essential for national interests and security. Collaborative partnerships with like-minded governments are important for shared insights and investment opportunities. Developing independent AI regulations will safeguard India's data and business environment effectively. Addressing the emerging challenges in AI will be crucial as India's capabilities expand.
Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide stock market action on Monday
Indian equities fell over 2% last week as rising crude oil prices, FII outflows and geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment. Broader markets underperformed, while global indices also declined and market breadth strongly favoured bears.
FPIs withdraw Rs 48,056 cr from equities in Oct so far amid elevated crude oil prices
Foreign investors withdrew significant funds from Indian equities in October amid concerns over inflation and crude oil prices. Despite this, there were signs of moderation in selling with two days of net buying. The overall FPI outflows from equities in 2026 have reached notable levels compared to previous years. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming macroeconomic developments including US GDP data.
Charting the global economy: Euro area business activity cools
The euro area’s private sector slowed more than expected in October, weighed down by France as the region’s No. 2 economy grapples with fiscal and political tensions.
Nifty bears tighten grip as crude, geopolitical risks, FII outflows mount: 5 factors to decide D-Street’s fate next week
Indian stock markets faced a setback as crude oil prices soared, triggered by increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite some defensive buying from domestic institutions, foreign investors pulled back. The forthcoming US Federal Reserve meeting is poised to impact global market moods. Investors will be keenly watching industrial production metrics and second-quarter earnings for insights on corporate health, as macroeconomic stability remains crucial for market trends.
Strong macro fundamentals, policy interventions to anchor eco against global headwinds: RBI bulletin
Strong macroeconomic fundamentals continue to support the Indian economy against global inflation and trade tensions. Recent geopolitical frictions have resulted in increased prices and supply chain issues, leading to policy changes. Currency fluctuations were observed, but measures by the Reserve Bank helped stabilize the rupee recently. Foreign Direct Investment remains robust, driven by significant inflows from major sources like the US and Singapore.
RBI flags rising inflation risks from West Asia conflict, El Nino despite resilient Indian economy
India's external sector shows resilience due to a narrowing trade gap and comfortable foreign exchange reserves. Inflationary pressures have intensified due to geopolitical tensions and supply-side bottlenecks. The RBI reported an increase in both industry and services indicators, showcasing economic strength. The IMF has revised India's growth projection for 2026-27 to 7% based on resilient domestic demand. Global financial volatility has increased amid global challenges and rising inflation risks.
India's 10-year bond falls for 10th week in record slump
Indian government bonds have experienced their worst decline in thirty years, falling consecutively for ten weeks. Rising crude oil prices and a hawkish central bank stance have impacted the market negatively. The benchmark repo rate was recently raised to 5.5%, with further increases expected. The 2036 bond yield rose to 7.4740%, indicating a broader trend of increasing yields. These developments may significantly affect India's import bill and inflation outlook.
Despite global tensions, India’s business sentiment rebounds in Q2 FY27: NCAER
India's Business Confidence Index has risen to 107.8 in the second quarter of this fiscal year. The survey included 502 companies across six major cities, reflecting both large firms and MSMEs. All four key parameters evaluated by the index showed gains when compared to the previous quarter. NCAER indicated that confidence improved in expectations of economic conditions and financial health.
European corporate earnings outlook improves as energy profits surge
European corporate earnings growth is forecast to reach 21.9% in the third quarter, driven by soaring energy profits amid US-Iran war volatility. However, inflation risks, elevated oil prices and rising borrowing costs threaten investor confidence and market stability.
Nasdaq CEO flags IPO slowdown amid market volatility
The IPO market is grappling with hurdles stemming from macroeconomic instability and fluctuating market conditions that are influencing corporate strategies. Numerous firms have either delayed or abandoned their public listing intentions lately. Nevertheless, Nasdaq maintains a sturdy and vibrant pipeline for future listings, even as analysts caution that a revival in IPO activity likely won't materialize until 2026 without a surge in investor interest.
China stocks extend losses as global tech selloff weighs on sentiment
Chinese stocks extend losses as a global technology selloff, Middle East tensions and French debt concerns weigh on sentiment. The CSI300 falls into bear-market territory under some definitions, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng remains relatively steady.
'Trade becoming means of weaponisation, sea routes epicenter of geopolitical tension': PM Modi highlights India's role in changing world order
Prime Minister Narendra Modi underscored the evolving nature of international relations. He explained how trade is increasingly being used as a weapon among nations. Modi highlighted that technology has emerged as a new battleground for competition and conflict. Additionally, he pointed out the rising geopolitical tensions affecting global sea routes. These remarks reflect India's acknowledgment of current shifts in the global order.
Global Market Today: Asian stocks mixed as oil rally, AI concerns weigh on sentiment
Contracts for the Nasdaq 100 Index slipped 0.6% and those for the S&P 500 dropped 0.4% in early Asian trading following a split set of results from Tesla Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. The automaker’s shares fell 3.1% in post-market trading after cutting its capital-spending forecast. Meta Platforms, however, rose 2% after hours as the company boosted its bet on AI with spending outlook.
ECB says AI, greener economy help euro zone weather energy shock
Despite facing substantial energy challenges from escalating oil and gas prices, the euro zone economy has shown resilience in growth. Economists from the European Central Bank attribute this to reduced fossil fuel reliance and enhanced fiscal support. Additionally, advancements in AI and technology exports have fueled the region's economic expansion. Nevertheless, caution is advised as these benefits may prove temporary, with ongoing geopolitical tensions posing significant risks to future stability.
Global container freight prices surge 130% since February amid Middle East tensions: Jefferies
Global container freight rates have surged by 130 percent since February 2026 due to Middle East tensions. India's container-based export-import trade has shown strong growth with a 23 percent increase in September. Exports to the United States grew significantly, while those to the UAE and Saudi Arabia faced declines. Port traffic data revealed mixed trends for major and non-major ports across the country.
Global Market: China backs IMF scrutiny of fiscal risks in major economies
China backed the IMF’s efforts to monitor fiscal risks in major advanced economies and assess global spillover effects. PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng highlighted rising debt, financial imbalances and cross-border capital flows, while opposing protectionism. The IMF urged China to strengthen domestic consumption and reduce reliance on exports.
China's economic growth picks up & rebounds to 4.5% in third quarter, beating expectations
China’s economy grew 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, beating market expectations of 4.4% and recovering from a more than three-year low of 4.3% in the previous quarter. Growth eased pressure on policymakers to announce further stimulus to meet the annual target of 4.5%-5%.
High double-digit growth in engineering goods exports in September shows sector's resilience and global competitiveness: EEPC India
In September, India's exports of engineering goods soared to US$12.17 billion, indicating an impressive year-on-year growth. For the first half of the fiscal year, cumulative exports reached US$70.87 billion, reflecting a notable 19.7% increase.
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