GLOBAL STABILITY
UK 30-year gilt yields hit 28-year high in global selloff
The British 30-year bond yields have skyrocketed to their highest level since January 1998 amid a global bond market decline. This surge is primarily driven by ongoing inflation and substantial government borrowing, which are raising apprehensions among bond investors globally. As Finance Minister John Healey prepares for his budget announcement on October 28, 2023, analysts anticipate a £15 billion increase in public borrowing in the coming fiscal years.
RBI may hike interest rate further in December policy: Experts
The Reserve Bank of India has shifted its policy stance to calibrated tightening amid rising inflation concerns. A rate hike of up to 50 basis points is anticipated in December, increasing the current benchmark rate. Various economists emphasize the likelihood of cumulative rate increases over the next months. Rising commodity prices and global market volatility are influencing these monetary policy decisions.
Global Market: UK Gilt yields rise as oil, US Treasury yields weigh on bonds
British 10-year gilt yields jumped 6 basis points to 5.44%, nearing a 19-year high, as rising oil prices and US Treasury yields fueled inflation concerns. Investors also focused on Britain’s upcoming October 28 budget and fiscal outlook. Potentially higher borrowing needs and weak global bond markets added pressure to government debt.
AI asset valuations pose global risk, but cyber threat biggest concern for central banks: RBI Governor
The Governor made the remarks in response to an question at the post-policy press conference, after the RBI flagged elevated AI-related asset valuations among the key downside risks to the global economy.
IMF chief warns energy shock, growing debt and AI risks threaten global growth
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that high energy prices, record public debt and the AI investment boom are fuelling inflation and threatening global stability. She urged high-debt economies to pursue fiscal consolidation and central banks to maintain a cautious, hawkish stance.
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Stable institutions, steady pursuit of reforms will steer India to 2047 goal: Jean-Claude Trichet
India's journey to becoming a developed nation by 2047 hinges on institutional stability and sustained economic reforms. Former European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet emphasizes the importance of resilient democratic institutions. He cautions against the risks posed by global over-indebtedness and market corrections. Trichet believes AI will bring challenges and benefits in the long run but highlights the need for global regulations.
Global Market: Hedge fund group warns BoE repo reforms could worsen market stress
Hedge fund group AIMA has warned the Bank of England that proposed gilt repo reforms, including wider central clearing, could reduce liquidity and increase vulnerability to funding disruptions during periods of market stress.
RBI hikes rate, but analysts see shift to ‘calibrated tightening’ as bigger takeaway. How can this impact markets?
RBI’s 25-bps repo rate hike to 5.50% was largely expected, but its shift to ‘calibrated tightening’ surprised markets and signals that near-term rate cuts are unlikely. Analysts expect selective pressure on rate-sensitive sectors, while banks with stronger balance sheets may remain relatively better placed amid rising inflation and crude prices.
Four horsemen of economic trouble? RBI governor flags the risks spooking the world
The RBI raised the repo rate 25 bps to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years, and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening. Governor Sanjay Malhotra flagged four global risks: West Asia tensions and volatile oil prices, tariff uncertainty, elevated bond yields and stretched AI stock valuations. He said these risks are clouding global sentiment despite resilient growth.
India may average 7.2% growth this fiscal despite H2 slowdown, potential seen at 8%, says economist
India's economic growth is expected to slow down below 7 percent in the upcoming quarters. Despite this moderation, the overall growth for the year may average around 7.2 percent. Economist Madan Sabnavis indicates potential for long-term growth reaching 8 percent in the coming years. Global uncertainties and local consumption impacts are significant factors influencing this outlook.
Global Market: European shares rally as healthcare gains offset eurozone fiscal concerns
European shares climbed to near one-week highs, led by healthcare stocks, while easing eurozone bond yields offered some relief. Investors remained focused on fiscal pressures, political uncertainty and upcoming economic data for clues on the region’s outlook.
India, US discuss stronger defence ties, maritime security as Admiral Paparo visits New Delhi
India and the United States are enhancing their defence and strategic partnership under the leadership of Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh. Admiral Samuel Paparo's visit to India included discussions on regional security challenges and technology cooperation. High-level meetings were held with senior Indian defence officials, including Chief of Defence Staff General N. S. Raja Subramani. The discussions emphasized shared security priorities and maritime coordination in the Indo-Pacific region.
India, Switzerland sign migration pact, expand trade, investment and defence ties
India and Switzerland have signed a migration and mobility partnership pact and expanded market access for Indian exports. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Swiss President Guy Parmelin discussed deepening cooperation in nuclear energy and defence. Both nations aim to boost bilateral trade and investment ties following the recent Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement. New opportunities will also emerge for Indian students and professionals in Switzerland through the agreements.
US Market: Fed’s Hammack says jobs data gives time to assess rate path
Federal Reserve officials have signalled they have time to assess incoming economic data before making further changes to interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said September’s weak employment report was broadly consistent with recent labour-market trends. With hiring slowing but remaining stable and inflation pressures persistent, policymakers are weighing employment and price stability before the next rate decision.
RBI could keep rates higher for longer amid global and local risks
With global financial risks in the spotlight, the Reserve Bank of India is indicating a shift towards higher interest rates. Governor Sanjay Malhotra has highlighted emerging challenges, including significant global debt levels and surging asset prices. The rise in US treasury yields and crude oil costs suggests trials ahead for the Indian economy.
Global bond yields put emerging markets on edge, but India’s FDI pull stays strong: DEA Secretary Anuradha Thakur
Rising global bond yields and surging capital demand from the AI investment cycle could increase funding pressures for emerging markets, Economic Affairs Secretary Anuradha Thakur said. Despite the global squeeze, India remains an attractive investment destination, with record FDI inflows reflecting confidence in its macroeconomic stability, reforms and long-term growth prospects.
India within striking distance of 8% GDP growth, resilience not accidental: Shaktikanta Das
With an ambitious target of 8% GDP growth, India aims for Viksit Bharat by the year 2047 through innovative reforms. The government is dedicated to increasing domestic capabilities in crucial areas such as energy and manufacturing. Significant measures are being implemented to strengthen long-term finance and bolster involvement in global supply chains.
Let exchange rate act as shock absorber: IMF on Fed hike impact on India
The International Monetary Fund has noted the potential impact of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes on global markets. This situation could create challenges for emerging economies through capital flows and financing conditions. The IMF encourages India to let its exchange rate absorb shocks while focusing on maintaining domestic price stability. India's current strong economic position may help it navigate this environment effectively.
Shaktikanta Das, PM's Principal Secretary-2, says India within striking distance of 8% growth
Shaktikanta Das highlighted India's impressive 7.8% GDP growth in the first quarter of the financial year. He emphasized the role of strong domestic demand and structural reforms in facilitating this growth. Das noted that enhanced governance and digital systems significantly contributed to economic stability and performance.
Will Nifty, Sensex plunge for 9th straight week? TCS Q2, RBI MPC among 4 factors to drive Dalal Street from Monday
India's stock market has faced a challenging downturn, marking eight weeks of losses, the longest in 25 years. Driving this trend are soaring oil prices and rising US bond yields. The sell-off by foreign institutional investors has intensified the downturn. As companies like TCS and DMart prepare for their Q2 earnings, investors hope for signs of resilience amidst a weaker rupee fueling their concerns.
Narco kingpin Navpreet Singh deported from Turkiye: Shah
Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced the deportation of narco kingpin Navpreet Singh from Turkiye. Singh obtained Turkish citizenship under an assumed name while continuing his drug trafficking activities. Since 2019, India has repatriated a total of 288 fugitives to enhance national security. The Modi government emphasizes a comprehensive strategy combining global outreach and smart diplomacy.
Pvt investment, strategic resource security, global openness key for growth path ahead: FM Sitharaman
India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted strategic priorities to build resilience amid ongoing global economic uncertainty. She emphasized the importance of optimizing supply chains and fostering private sector investment for strengthening innovation. The minister noted that India's R&D expenditure is significantly lower compared to OECD countries, necessitating increased private participation. Sitharaman discussed the shocks faced in recent years and the importance of managing economic stability.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra flags rising financial risks, warns against complacency as West Asia conflict adds to inflation pressure
Sanjay Malhotra highlighted the need for vigilance regarding financial vulnerabilities at the Kautilya Economic Conclave. He emphasized that banking and financial stress can develop suddenly yet take years to resolve. Malhotra pointed out the interplay of geopolitical and economic factors complicating current financial stability predictions. He stressed the Reserve Bank of India's role in maintaining financial resilience through appropriate regulations and supervision.
India needs integrated energy storage policy to build resilience against geopolitical shocks: S&P Global
Gauri Jauhar emphasizes the importance of energy resilience for India's future energy security and storage policies. An integrated framework for storage across various energy sources is essential for long-term stability. India's refining sector plays a crucial role in managing crude import dependence and generating foreign exchange earnings. The transition to clean energy and green hydrogen will occur gradually while India remains an attractive destination for energy investments.
Piyush Goyal calls for clear distinction between food supply ‘weaponisation’ and food-security measures
Piyush Goyal addressed the G20 Trade Ministers' meeting, focusing on the distinction in food supply chain strategies. He emphasized the need to differentiate coercive actions from legitimate food security measures. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer discussed the implications of food weaponization and structural excess capacity in global markets. Greer also highlighted concerns about the Most-Favored-Nation principle and forced labor impacting trade fairness.
Global Market: Kospi falls as oil prices, Middle East uncertainty weigh
South Korean shares slipped despite record September exports, as elevated oil prices and uncertainty over Middle East energy supplies weighed on sentiment. The KOSPI fell 0.21%, while the won weakened and bond yields rose. Exports surged 83.5%, driven by semiconductor shipments and strong AI-related demand, but foreign investors remained net sellers.
Earth’s 7 of 9 Planetary Boundaries have been breached: Amazon, oceans and climate are among systems under pressure as situations continue to worsen
Earth's natural systems face mounting pressures, with seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached. The Planetary Health Check 2026 highlights ongoing risks from climate change and biodiversity loss. While two boundaries remain within safe limits, recovery signs for the ozone layer are slowing. Scientists emphasize the interconnectedness of ecosystem changes and their impacts on human livelihoods, indicating urgent action is necessary.
Global economy is shifting East, Global South must seize the moment: Shaktikanta Das
The Principal Secretary-2 Shaktikanta Das outlined the challenges and opportunities facing Global South economies during recent discussions. Energy shocks, trade barriers, and geopolitical uncertainties pose significant risks for these nations as they adapt. Strategies focused on food security, trade diversification, and job creation are essential for future resilience. Additionally, rising protectionism complicates access to global markets and technologies for low- and middle-income countries.
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