GLOBAL ECONOMIC RISKS
AI asset valuations pose global risk, but cyber threat biggest concern for central banks: RBI Governor
The Governor made the remarks in response to an question at the post-policy press conference, after the RBI flagged elevated AI-related asset valuations among the key downside risks to the global economy.
RBI Repo Rate 2026: Why RBI MPC lifted repo rates for the first time in nearly four years in October policy
RBI Repo Rate: The Reserve Bank of India increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% after recent inflation concerns. Economic growth has exceeded expectations, prompting the central bank to adjust its monetary policy. Inflation risks are rising due to higher crude prices and weaker agricultural output affecting projections. Global interest rate changes and narrowing differentials also pressure capital flows and emerging markets.
RBI GDP Growth 2026: Malhotra & Co raise FY27 GDP forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%
RBI GDP Growth 2026: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its growth forecast for fiscal year 2026-27 to 7.1%. This adjustment comes after stronger-than-expected economic performance, including 7.8% growth in the June quarter. The RBI has also raised the policy repo rate to 5.5% while changing its policy stance to calibrated tightening. While domestic consumption remains resilient, global challenges and inflation concerns persist.
RBI hikes rate, but analysts see shift to ‘calibrated tightening’ as bigger takeaway. How can this impact markets?
RBI’s 25-bps repo rate hike to 5.50% was largely expected, but its shift to ‘calibrated tightening’ surprised markets and signals that near-term rate cuts are unlikely. Analysts expect selective pressure on rate-sensitive sectors, while banks with stronger balance sheets may remain relatively better placed amid rising inflation and crude prices.
RBI MPC Meeting 2026: West Asia conflict keeps global outlook uncertain, says Sanjay Malhotra
The Reserve Bank of India has raised the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. This increase is the first since February 2023 amid economic uncertainties both domestically and globally. Geopolitical developments have contributed to instability in global markets, affecting economic activity. Despite these challenges, the RBI noted that the Indian economy remains strong with broad-based momentum.
ETMarkets Smart Talk| Rising US yields could hit expensive mid, smallcaps harder: Harish Krishnan
In an interaction with Kshitij Anand of ETMarkets, Harish Krishnan, CIO – Equity, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, discusses the risks and opportunities in the broader market, why investors should not confuse momentum with quality, and why earnings, cash flows and return on capital will become increasingly important.
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Four horsemen of economic trouble? RBI governor flags the risks spooking the world
The RBI raised the repo rate 25 bps to 5.50%, its first hike in nearly four years, and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening. Governor Sanjay Malhotra flagged four global risks: West Asia tensions and volatile oil prices, tariff uncertainty, elevated bond yields and stretched AI stock valuations. He said these risks are clouding global sentiment despite resilient growth.
RBI MPC Meeting at a Glance: Your one step guide for all decisions
RBI Monetary Policy Meeting Highlights: The Monetary Policy Committee has raised the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that inflation pressures are increasing and rate cuts are not expected soon. The Indian economy continues to show resilience, with GDP growth projected at 7.1% for the year. Inflation is forecasted at 5.2%, with core inflation expected to be around 4.4%.
World Bank bumps up FY27 India growth outlook to 7.1%
The World Bank has increased the growth forecast for India's FY27 to 7.1% from earlier estimates. This revision is attributed to strong domestic demand and solid exports, despite global challenges. Growth is expected to moderate later in FY27 but rebound in the medium term. However, risks such as higher global oil prices and El Nino-related disruptions could impact performance.
ET Alpha Wealth Summit 2.0: Where is smart money moving amid global market churn?
As global capital shifts amid rising bond yields, changing valuations and new investment themes, investors are asking where the next opportunities could emerge. At ET Alpha Wealth Summit 2.0, two back-to-back sessions will explore where long-term capital is moving and how family offices and institutions are putting money to work across private credit, venture debt, co-investments and alternative strategies.
World Bank flags oil, El Niño and global market risks to growth
The World Bank has revised its growth forecast for South Asia, projecting a robust 6.9% by 2026, driven by a surge in consumer demand. India, leading the region's economy, is expected to achieve a 7.1% growth. However, persistent high inflation and potential spikes in energy prices pose risks to this growth.
Global Market: European shares rally as healthcare gains offset eurozone fiscal concerns
European shares climbed to near one-week highs, led by healthcare stocks, while easing eurozone bond yields offered some relief. Investors remained focused on fiscal pressures, political uncertainty and upcoming economic data for clues on the region’s outlook.
Global Market: BOJ seen nearing 2% inflation target as markets eye December rate hike
The Bank of Japan may signal later this month that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, strengthening expectations for a December rate hike. While policymakers remain cautious after recent increases, steady wages, rising prices and yen weakness could support further tightening as the BOJ gradually normalises monetary policy.
World Bank raises India FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%, flags oil, El Niño risks
The World Bank has upgraded India's economic growth forecast to 7.1% for fiscal 2026-27. This change reflects strong domestic consumption, despite ongoing inflationary pressures. Other major forecasters, including Moody's and S&P Global Ratings, have also revised their projections upward. However, elevated oil prices and potential climate-related challenges pose risks to this outlook. The World Bank emphasizes the need for accelerated AI adoption in the region for sustained economic growth.
Global Market | High energy costs threaten eurozone inflation outlook: ECB's Nagel
Eurozone inflation stands at 3.8%, with Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warning of upside risks from energy, food and refining costs. However, wage and price-setting remain contained, while long-term inflation expectations stay aligned with the ECB’s 2% target. Markets increasingly expect further ECB rate hikes, though Nagel urged flexibility.
RBI could keep rates higher for longer amid global and local risks
With global financial risks in the spotlight, the Reserve Bank of India is indicating a shift towards higher interest rates. Governor Sanjay Malhotra has highlighted emerging challenges, including significant global debt levels and surging asset prices. The rise in US treasury yields and crude oil costs suggests trials ahead for the Indian economy.
Capital limited but confidence in rules of trade, fiscal path of large economies: DEA secretary
Economic Affairs Secretary Anuradha Thakur said trade shaped by security and geopolitical considerations could deepen global imbalances, raise capital costs and create friction. She said private investment was showing signs of revival despite tight global financial conditions, while the AI investment cycle was adding to demand for capital and debt.
Global bond yields put emerging markets on edge, but India’s FDI pull stays strong: DEA Secretary Anuradha Thakur
Rising global bond yields and surging capital demand from the AI investment cycle could increase funding pressures for emerging markets, Economic Affairs Secretary Anuradha Thakur said. Despite the global squeeze, India remains an attractive investment destination, with record FDI inflows reflecting confidence in its macroeconomic stability, reforms and long-term growth prospects.
India’s growth is making the world rewrite its forecast: MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg
India's continued economic resilience, supported by strong corporate performance and sustained investment activity, is now being reflected in upward revisions to the country's growth estimates by various international agencies, Saurabh Garg, Secretary, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), said.
Rate cut cycle near turning point. What lies ahead for Indian bonds?
The RBI is expected to signal monetary tightening at its October policy meeting as stronger economic growth, rising oil prices and elevated US Treasury yields fuel inflation concerns. Higher domestic rates could support the rupee but raise borrowing costs for the government and companies while pressuring equities and consumption.
India needs competitive capabilities, import diversification: PK Mishra
P K Mishra emphasized India's approach to economic resilience during the Kautilya Economic Conclave. He noted the importance of maintaining substantial stocks and diversifying procurement strategies. Mishra highlighted the growth in the number of countries from which India imports crude oil significantly.
Nirmala Sitharaman calls for open, rules-based global economic ties amid geopolitical tensions
At the Kautilya Economic Conclave, Nirmala Sitharaman spoke about fostering international trade policies that are not only open but also predictable. She underlined the critical need for nations to communicate effectively to dissolve geopolitical trade barriers. Highlighting the importance of resilience in the global economy, she introduced the National Critical Minerals Mission, stressing strategic autonomy to reduce single-source dependencies amid ongoing global economic turmoil.
Economic resilience cannot mean global insulation; domestic production "may cost more": Principal Secy to PM
PK Mishra emphasized the need for India to remain open to global markets while enhancing economic resilience. He indicated that domestic production could be more expensive than imports, which highlights the need for a better risk assessment. Businesses are increasingly postponing investments and diversifying suppliers due to economic uncertainties. Mishra underlined that building domestic capabilities must focus on competitiveness rather than merely substituting imports.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra flags rising financial risks, warns against complacency as West Asia conflict adds to inflation pressure
Sanjay Malhotra highlighted the need for vigilance regarding financial vulnerabilities at the Kautilya Economic Conclave. He emphasized that banking and financial stress can develop suddenly yet take years to resolve. Malhotra pointed out the interplay of geopolitical and economic factors complicating current financial stability predictions. He stressed the Reserve Bank of India's role in maintaining financial resilience through appropriate regulations and supervision.
Global Market: European shares slide as surging bond yields hit risk appetite
European shares opened the final quarter lower as elevated global bond yields and persistent inflation concerns weighed on investor sentiment. The STOXX 600 fell 1%, with banks among the biggest decliners. Higher energy costs and expectations of prolonged interest rates pressured equities, while softer oil prices offered limited relief to markets.
Global markets defy bond turmoil as stocks stay near record highs
Global stocks remain near record highs despite rising government bond yields, geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and concerns over AI valuations. Equities have been supported by strong earnings expectations, even as bond markets face significant stress. Investors are watching yields, currency movements, geopolitical risks and the sustainability of the AI-led rally.
US Market: 10-year yield surges to 5.31%, highest since 2007
US Treasury yields reached multi-year highs as a historic bond selloff extended into a seventh session. The 10-year yield touched 5.31%, while the 30-year exceeded 5.65%. Persistent inflation, energy costs, strong AI investment and shifting Fed expectations pressured bonds. Falling oil prices offered some relief, but global yields remained elevated.
India can't take growth for granted, FinMin warns as global rates rise and investors turn cautious
India's economy exhibited robust growth of 7.8 percent in the first quarter of FY27 and is projected to grow 7.3 percent in the next quarter. While domestic conditions appear resilient, external risks continue to challenge its investment appeal, particularly regarding trade relations with the United States and fluctuations in energy prices. The recent sovereign rating upgrade reflects strengthening fundamentals amid global uncertainties and cautious investor sentiment.
CEA warns of looming oil and rate pressures in India’s H2, sees Q2 growth at 7.3%
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran noted that the second half of the fiscal year would be challenging. Rising oil prices and increased global growth risks create a tougher economic environment for India. The economy saw a 7.8% GDP growth in the first quarter, backed by strong indicators like GST collections and credit growth. Upcoming data suggested a GDP growth rate of around 7.3% for July and August.
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