GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND MARKETS
Indian bonds rally most since April as oil slides after US midterm verdict
Indian government bonds experienced a significant rally influenced by falling oil prices after the US midterm elections. The benchmark bond yield dropped notably, reflecting a three-day decline in yields. Brent crude oil prices decreased, easing inflation and fiscal pressures on India. The Reserve Bank of India anticipates inflation will peak this quarter, supporting future bond market performance.
Democratic sweep adds new twist to markets' Iran, AI, and debt worries
Investors are watching the implications of the recent Democratic win in the US midterm elections. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran war, continue to elevate oil prices and market risks. Regulatory scrutiny on the rapidly growing AI sector is expected following the election outcomes. Market volatility is anticipated to persist due to fiscal policy debates and increasing debt concerns. The market response so far has shown modest gains despite heightened uncertainties.
70% of global business leaders report rising risk exposure amid AI, geopolitical disruptions: KPMG
According to the report, 56% of respondents said external disruptions involving geopolitical, energy, cyber, trade or climate-related factors would cause severe operational disruptions or significantly affect their organisations' costs and performance over the next three to five years.
Glittering Prospects: Why Gold is the ultimate sweet spot this Dhanteras
Gold is trading over 20% below its peak ahead of Dhanteras, offering long-term investors a potential staggered buying opportunity. Central-bank demand, ETF inflows and rupee weakness could support prices, with analysts projecting returns of 15–20% by next Dhanteras.
Gold and silver prices correct ahead of Diwali: Buying opportunity or a trap?
Gold and silver have corrected sharply from record highs, but their long-term fundamentals remain supportive. Investors with a longer horizon may consider staggered accumulation, with gold and silver potentially recovering toward $4,750 and $75, respectively, by Diwali 2027.
Diwali 2026: Will Sensex, Nifty reclaim their peaks or scale new highs? Analysts map the road ahead
Market analysts are tentatively optimistic about Indian equity markets seeing a resurgence in the next financial year. Expectations suggest that both the Sensex and Nifty may rise to their past peak levels by Diwali 2027, driven by improving corporate profitability. While favorable valuations and steady domestic investments bolster this outlook, global uncertainties like inflation, interest rates, and oil prices could pose challenges.
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ETMarkets Smart Talk| Gold, silver or copper? Tata MF fund manager suggests a 50:30:20 commodity allocation: Tapan Patel
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, we speak with Tapan Patel, Fund Manager – Commodities at Tata Asset Management, who shares his outlook on gold, silver, copper and crude oil, explains the changing dynamics driving commodity prices, and suggests a 50:30:20 allocation to gold, copper and silver, respectively, for investors looking to build a commodity portfolio for the long term.
Global Market Today: Asian shares retreat as US futures slide on mid-term election bets
Contracts for the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.3%, erasing an initial gain of 0.5%, while those for the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.6%. The dollar dropped against most of its Group-of-10 peers and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell four basis points to 4.92%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.2% even as South Korea’s Kospi Index jumped 1%.
Investors ready for possible shake-up in Congress as US awaits election results
Investors are closely monitoring upcoming midterm elections, as results may influence asset prices significantly. A potential Democratic victory could lead to increased scrutiny on sectors like AI and data centers. Polls indicate a high probability of Democrats taking control of the House and a competitive Senate race. Analysts predict potential volatility in markets following the election results due to heightened investor anxiety.
Fridge hacks and finance attacks flag AI insecurity
The growing use of AI in cyberattacks could pose a major threat to the global economy, financial markets and critical infrastructure, according to a Reuters commentary by Mike Dolan.
Is the AI boom losing steam? Global economy faces growing risks
Global financial markets face mounting pressure from geopolitical conflicts, rising government debt and trade tensions, raising concerns about the resilience of the global economy. While the AI investment boom has driven stock markets to record highs and supported growth expectations, rising borrowing costs, inflation, weakening currencies and the prolonged Iran war threaten to undermine investor confidence and expose deeper vulnerabilities.
Gold price prediction: Gold prices extend losses on Tuesday. Check outlook for November 3
Investors are now looking to the US midterm elections for indications of the country's fiscal policy direction and their potential impact on broader market sentiment.
Global markets were already fragile. Big AI bets could break them
Investors flocked to bonds. Yields, which move inversely to price, fell from multidecade highs, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which guides borrowing costs globally, falling almost 20 basis points on October 22, its biggest daily fall since early 2023.
Nifty's Diwali-to-Diwali slide: Will year-end gains light up Dalal Street?
The Nifty index has faced notable drops over the last year, heavily impacted by foreign investor outflows and surging crude oil prices. Experts indicate a chance for a year-end comeback, dependent on better corporate earnings and domestic investments. Nevertheless, ongoing volatility and geopolitical strains might limit market advancements in the next few months. The September-quarter earnings season hints at improvement, potentially raising investor confidence.
ETMarkets Smart Talk | Gold for ballast, silver for growth; avoid industrial commodities in core portfolios: Saish Sawant
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Saish Sawant, Research Analyst–Commodities at Emkay Global Financial Services, breaks down the contrasting moves across gold, crude and copper.
Global Market: French bond yields hold steady despite Fitch downgrade warning
French bond yields remained steady despite Fitch downgrading the country's outlook to negative, as investors weighed fiscal concerns and political uncertainty against easing energy prices and developments in the Middle East.
Diwali investment picks 2026: 10 fund managers reveal promising opportunities and risks to watch
This Diwali, investment experts advise a strategic approach focused on asset allocation rather than luring high-growth stocks. Sectors like banking, financial services, and premium goods present promising opportunities. While gold should only occupy a small fraction of a diversified portfolio for risk management, short-duration debt funds gain favour as interest rates shift. Maintaining discipline and patience is essential for long-term investment success.
Should you buy gold now? Experts see prices rising, but watch these risks
Gold prices have experienced a notable drop, creating favorable opportunities for those looking to buy during the festive and wedding seasons. Experts suggest that gold demand may rise in the near future. Nevertheless, market volatility driven by US Federal Reserve rate changes should prompt caution among investors. It is essential for buyers to evaluate their financial objectives and consult with financial advisors regarding suitable gold investment strategies.
Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts, warns Brent could hit $140 in 2027
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts amid mounting geopolitical risks and potential Gulf supply disruptions. The bank warned Brent crude could reach $140 per barrel in 2027 under a prolonged supply shock scenario. Shipping attacks, infrastructure damage and Middle East tensions could sustain elevated oil prices and market volatility.
Indian stocks may recover on steady growth and earnings, Axis AMC says
Indian stocks are expected to recover in the financial year due to strong earnings and economic growth. The Nifty 50 index has decreased significantly after years of gains, partly due to global issues. The fund manager emphasizes that foreign fund outflows do not indicate a decline in India's growth prospects. Certain sectors like AI, energy, and domestic manufacturing are highlighted for potential investment.
Sebi to delist penny stocks: Market regulator plans AI-based surveillance of such firms
The Securities and Exchange Board of India plans to delist companies that have no economic activity. This move aims to protect investors, especially those investing in penny stocks. The regulator highlights the potential dangers posed by such inactive companies in the market. Additionally, Sebi intends to announce compliance requirements for foreign institutional investors soon.
Niti Aayog's Lahiri flags growth risks in case of further monetary policy tightening
In India, it's essential for policymakers to harmonize growth output with inflation expectations. Niti Aayog’s Ashok Lahiri pointed out the importance of addressing inflation alongside job creation. He urged banks to play a pivotal role in linking enterprises with financial support and investment options. To capitalize on its natural resources, West Bengal must focus on industry attraction, while effective land acquisition and good infrastructure remain key for business development.
'Took stock of our bilateral cooperation': EAM Jaishankar meets US Secy of State Rubio on sidelines of G20
S Jaishankar held a bilateral meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Atlanta. The meeting focused on enhancing India-US cooperation and addressing geopolitical issues. Jaishankar emphasized that military solutions are not viable for resolving global challenges. Rubio also highlighted the importance of protecting economic and maritime security during the discussions. The G20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting concluded with crucial dialogues on international economic stability.
Jaishankar has a message for the world: Give diplomacy a chance, as military solutions won't work
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stressed the importance of diplomacy to address global challenges at the G20 meeting. He highlighted ongoing conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in West Asia, while addressing seafarer safety. Jaishankar emphasized the impact of market flooding and supply chain issues on the Global South. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned of interconnected economic and geopolitical crises affecting the global economic order.
Executive search defies broader job market uncertainty
India's executive search firms are reporting strong growth despite layoffs, AI-driven disruptions and global economic uncertainty. Leading firms have recorded business growth of 15-25% in the first half of the financial year, driven by demand for senior leaders across manufacturing, infrastructure, power, energy and global capability centres (GCCs). Companies are investing in experienced executives who can manage large projects, navigate technological change and improve business performance.
Advance-decline ratio hits 7-month low as market breadth weakens
The advance-to-decline ratio in the stock market indicates underlying weakness, despite some index gains. The BSE MidCap 150 and BSE SmallCap 250 have both seen declines this month. Various factors such as profit-booking and high valuations contribute to this market trend. Institutional money is increasingly favoring larger companies with stable earnings. Overall market conditions remain uncertain due to external economic pressures and geopolitical risks.
Indian gold buyers get 'breathing room' from Fed before Diwali, but conditions apply
The US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% could give Indian gold buyers some breathing room, but prices may remain range-bound in the coming weeks as expectations of a December rate hike weigh on bullion. Festive demand in India has picked up, narrowing domestic gold discounts to around $2 an ounce, while geopolitical uncertainty continues to add volatility.
Bitcoin hovers near $80,000 and Ethereum tests $2,300 as macro and geopolitical risks weigh on crypto markets
Bitcoin traded near $80,000 while Ethereum hovered around $2,327, as macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks tempered crypto sentiment. Investors monitored Federal Reserve signals, ETF flows, inflation data and options expiry amid cautious technical outlooks and mixed altcoin performance.
Rupee falls 5 paise to 94.98 against US dollar in early trade
In early trading, the rupee was priced at 94.98 against the US dollar, slipping by 5 paise primarily due to high crude oil rates and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Despite the dollar index facing a slight decline of 0.15 percent, India's forex reserves have seen a downturn, potentially affecting the currency's stability. However, the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention might bolster the rupee at lower trading levels.
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