ENERGY PRICES IMPACT ECONOMY
The war bump is a false victory for S&P 500 profits
The commentary argues that strong S&P 500 earnings growth is narrowly concentrated in AI-linked companies and sectors benefiting from the Iran war, including energy, defence and materials. It warns that higher fuel prices, inflation and borrowing costs could weaken consumer demand, while heavy dependence on the AI boom leaves the market vulnerable if investment returns disappoint.
India appears better stocked for West Asia crisis, but oil shock threatens
In West Asia, tensions are affecting energy and fertilizer supplies, prompting adjustments by the Indian government. Freight costs have surged to unprecedented levels due to rising insurance and shipping difficulties, impacting global supply chains. Current crude prices are the highest in twelve years, straining Indian refiners and state-run retailers. The government faces challenges with increasing fiscal and current account deficits due to rising import costs.
ECB Meeting: Five key questions on rates, inflation and Lagarde's exit
The European Central Bank is widely expected to hold interest rates at 2.5% amid elevated energy prices, eurozone inflation and France’s financial instability. With inflation reaching 3.8% in September, markets anticipate further rate hikes. Policymakers will assess economic risks, bond market pressures and leadership changes before signalling future monetary policy decisions.
Holcim lifts guidance again on strong demand
Holcim has increased its full-year guidance due to robust demand for sustainable building materials. The company reported a 17% jump in recurring Ebit in the third quarter, surpassing expectations. Increased customer demand and cost discipline contributed significantly to this profit increase. The firm aims to announce around 15 acquisitions by the end of this year. Holcim is focusing on alternative fuels to mitigate rising energy costs.
BlackRock stays cautious on Indian equities despite cheaper valuations
BlackRock Investment Institute has not yet adopted a bullish stance on Indian equities due to ongoing uncertainties. The firm anticipates greater clarity on corporate earnings and energy prices before changing its outlook. Despite elevated energy costs, India's economic resilience remains noteworthy amidst geopolitical tensions. Foreign investors have been net sellers of Indian equities for several months, impacting market performance.
Sri Lanka seeks faster green energy shift after oil shocks
Sri Lanka is facing significant challenges in its transition to renewable energy due to rising oil prices. The government plans to increase electricity generation from renewable sources to 70 percent by 2030. Communities have expressed concerns about the impact of wind turbines, leading to a reassessment of project locations. Additionally, changes in solar power pricing are necessary to maintain economic viability and fairness for consumers.
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Charting the global economy: Euro area business activity cools
The euro area’s private sector slowed more than expected in October, weighed down by France as the region’s No. 2 economy grapples with fiscal and political tensions.
Strong macro fundamentals, policy interventions to anchor eco against global headwinds: RBI bulletin
Strong macroeconomic fundamentals continue to support the Indian economy against global inflation and trade tensions. Recent geopolitical frictions have resulted in increased prices and supply chain issues, leading to policy changes. Currency fluctuations were observed, but measures by the Reserve Bank helped stabilize the rupee recently. Foreign Direct Investment remains robust, driven by significant inflows from major sources like the US and Singapore.
JSW Steel Q2 Results: Net profit rockets 225% YoY to Rs 5,279 crore; revenue rises 21%
JSW Steel Q2 Results: JSW Steel reported a 225% year-on-year jump in Q2 FY27 net profit to Rs 5,279 crore, while revenue rose 21% to Rs 54,486 crore. EBITDA climbed 39% to Rs 9,941 crore, with crude steel production and steel sales hitting record highs. However, shares fell around 3% after results.
Global Market: European stocks edge lower as Kering slumps, oil prices rise
European shares slipped as Kering plunged 10.4% following weak Gucci sales, while rising oil prices and French political uncertainty dampened sentiment. The STOXX 600 fell 0.13%, extending losses amid AI stock volatility and debt concerns. Holcim gained 5.2% after raising its earnings forecast, offering limited support to markets.
Indian bonds flattish as oil spike offset by falling Treasury yields
Indian government bonds saw little movement as investors monitored volatile oil prices and US Treasury yields. A spike in oil prices, spurred by geopolitical uncertainties, has heightened worries about the impact on global energy supplies and India's import expenses. The central bank's recent increase in the benchmark repo rate adds to this equation, hinting at possible future adjustments.
'The problem was caused by you': Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal calls out Europe over carbon emissions
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said India accounts for less than 3% of global carbon emissions despite representing 17% of the world's population. Speaking in Berlin, he said Europe's per capita emissions and environmental impact were seven to eight times higher than India's.
Goyal reminds developed countries of $100 bln climate finance pledge, says 'haven't seen nickel or dime of that'
Union Minister Piyush Goyal addressed the Berlin Global Dialogue, criticizing developed nations for unmet climate finance commitments. He highlighted the disparity in carbon emissions between developed countries and India. Goyal pointed out the failure of developed nations to support climate initiatives in vulnerable regions. India, representing a large population, is still committed to a rapid green energy transition.
Oil Price Today (October 23): Crude oil ticks over $114, jumps nearly 8% this week as energy attacks intensify. What are experts saying?
Brent crude futures rose 50 cents, or 0.45%, to $114.02 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 40 cents, or 0.42%, to $100.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio, Ambani discuss energy and tech cooperation
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent visit to the Reliance Industries refinery in Jamnagar signified a pivotal step towards enhancing energy cooperation. Engaging in discussions with Mukesh and Anant Ambani, Rubio focused on investment avenues, including technology partnerships and ensuring affordable energy and dependable supply chains.
Global Market: Eurozone bond yields rise as French unrest fuels fiscal concerns
Eurozone government bond yields rose as protests in France heightened concerns over fiscal stability and public finances. French 10-year yields climbed to 4.948%, nearing a 23-year high, while the spread over German bonds widened to 150 basis points. Rising oil prices above $110 a barrel added to inflation concerns.
Global Market: UK inflation rises to 3.5% in September, boosting rate hike bets
UK inflation rises to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, exceeding expectations as higher fuel prices linked to the Iran war add to price pressures. Sticky services and core inflation strengthen expectations of a potential Bank of England rate hike.
ECB says AI, greener economy help euro zone weather energy shock
Despite facing substantial energy challenges from escalating oil and gas prices, the euro zone economy has shown resilience in growth. Economists from the European Central Bank attribute this to reduced fossil fuel reliance and enhanced fiscal support. Additionally, advancements in AI and technology exports have fueled the region's economic expansion. Nevertheless, caution is advised as these benefits may prove temporary, with ongoing geopolitical tensions posing significant risks to future stability.
Marco Rubio to to commence three-day visit to India, calls India key ally, says its Russian energy purchases need to be understood
Marco Rubio's visit to Mumbai includes discussions on the pending US-India trade deal and bilateral relations. He will meet External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to address economic cooperation and regional stability. After paying tribute to terror victims, he will attend the Freedom 250 Reception celebrating diplomatic ties between the nations. Following Mumbai, Rubio will travel to Jamnagar to engage further in energy discussions.
Sterling hits 17-month high against euro
Sterling hit a fresh 17-month high against the euro on Monday as street riots in France and elevated energy prices weighed on the single currency while recent
Trump's decision to waive Russian sanctions outrages Congress, but no quick counter seen
US President Donald Trump waived sanctions on Russia, which Congress had overwhelmingly approved for supporting Ukraine. Lawmakers expressed anger after the decision, criticizing Trump's approach towards Russia's President Vladimir Putin. As Ukraine faces severe winter conditions due to ongoing attacks, Congress remains out of session until after the elections. A bipartisan group of senators has urged faster action against Russia's oil trade.
Global Market: Eurozone bond selloff to weigh on growth, curb inflation, Lagarde says
ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that a global bond selloff is tightening euro zone financial conditions, raising borrowing costs and weighing on growth. Policymakers face a challenge balancing persistent energy-driven inflation risks against slowing economic activity.
US very close to finalising trade deal with India, says Marco Rubio
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday that Washington is close to finalising a trade deal with India. He said the US considers various factors, including ongoing trade negotiations, while making decisions on national security waivers related to Russian oil and gas sanctions.
'India an important ally': Rubio says Trump weighing impact of Russia-related tariffs
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that India's energy requirements will be considered before possible sanctions on Russian oil. President Donald Trump recently waived certain provisions of a proposed sanctions law affecting major importers of Russian crude. Rubio emphasized the need for time to assess the impact of these measures on global economies. He highlighted the strategic partnership with India as an important factor in decision-making.
Marco Rubio says Trump to take up to 60 days to weigh Russia sanctions
US President Donald Trump announced a temporary waiver of sanctions and tariffs on Russian exports. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated a 60-day review period for assessing economic impacts is underway. This decision comes amid rising energy prices resulting from the ongoing conflict in Iran. Critics, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, argue this may empower Russian President Vladimir Putin further.
IMF members call for more support amid war shocks, 'advanced intelligence' risks
The International Monetary Fund's member nations are advocating for heightened assistance to those grappling with financial difficulties, mainly due to adverse repercussions from ongoing conflicts and soaring energy prices. The chair of the International Monetary and Financial Committee emphasised the persistent economic risks.
BoE's Bailey says energy price pass-through remains limited, rate risks persist
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said rising energy prices have had limited broader inflationary effects so far, but warned that second-round pressures remain uncertain. With inflation at 3.1%, above the 2% target, policymakers are weighing potential interest rate hikes against economic resilience, rising borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
Global Market | European companies better positioned to withstand energy price shock than in 2022: Analysts
European companies appear better equipped to withstand rising oil and gas prices than during the 2022 energy crisis, supported by changing stock market composition, AI-related spending, global operations and stronger risk management. However, a prolonged energy shock could still pressure earnings and consumer demand.
IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, warns of rising risks from war and debt
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, supported by AI infrastructure investment, but warns that prolonged Middle East conflict, elevated energy prices, rising debt and uneven growth pose mounting risks to the global economic outlook.
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