DEFAULT RISK
Dean of valuation Aswath Damodaran pegs Anthropic's worth at $1.475 trillion ahead of mega IPO
Aswath Damodaran values Anthropic at $1.475 trillion ahead of its anticipated IPO, but warns that compute costs, slowing revenue growth, and competition could alter its outlook. His scenarios range from a negative $373 billion to $4.04 trillion in equity value.
Steep bill for AI buildout punishes Meta, other tech favorites
Investors sold shares of Meta Platforms and a wealth of companies central to the AI trade, a day after Meta -- one of the so-called hyperscalers spending billions to build data centers and other infrastructure supporting the AI boom -- said it would issue a new class of shares that will help it raise funds.
Global Markets: French markets tumble as riots add to political crisis
Protests across France have led to significant declines in the country's financial markets and stocks. French government officials requested local authorities to consider imposing curfews amid the unrest. The rise in bond yields suggests increasing investor concern over France's budgetary challenges and economic outlook. Major French banks have experienced stock declines, reflecting the heightened risk of insuring French debt.
Making people redundant is a no-win: Revolut India CEO on AI job cuts
As large private banks and financial institutions trim headcount to automate their workforce, Revolut’s Paroma Chatterjee believes it is critical to account for AI adoption first in processes before hiring.
Private Credit vs Fixed Income: What HNIs need to know before investing
ET Alpha Summit 2.0 will bring together leading investment voices to discuss private credit, structured debt and evolving portfolio strategies. As HNIs look beyond traditional fixed income for income and diversification, the summit will explore the opportunities, risks and role of private credit in today's portfolios, with insights from industry leaders.
Quote of the day by Bernard Baruch: "Not even the “safest” investment is without some risk and some element of speculation"
Bernard Baruch’s investing wisdom highlights that no asset is completely risk-free. Even conservative investments face inflation, interest-rate and credit risks. Investors should understand these uncertainties, assess risk-reward trade-offs and use diversification while aligning portfolios with financial goals.
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US Stock Market: Higher long-term Treasury yields face structural headwinds
Long-term US Treasury yields are likely to remain elevated as persistent inflation concerns, rising government and corporate debt issuance, and a shifting investor base put upward pressure on borrowing costs. The changing Treasury market dynamics could limit policymakers’ ability to bring down long-term yields.
Sebi proposes tighter curbs on promotional claims by online bond platforms
Sebi is tightening the reins on advertising practices for online bond platforms, aiming to protect investors from hasty decisions. New rules mandate that promotional content provides standardized information about specific securities. Terms such as 'fixed returns' must be accompanied by explicit risk disclaimers, while ambiguous claims like 'high yield' will also be subject to regulatory restrictions.
Oracle default fears explode as Credit Default Swap hits crisis-level highs amid AI bubble panic
Oracle’s default risk is surging as its 5-year CDS jumps to 128 bps, the highest since the financial crisis. Credit traders are buying protection amid AI-driven debt fears. Oracle stock is down 46% in three months after a 191% rally and now rebounds from $185–$198.3 support. Key resistance stands at $213.4–$213.8, with upside targets at $246.85, $290, and $346.
Weak US-leaning exporters a default risk for lenders
Banks in Mumbai are preparing for potential defaults from exporters heavily reliant on the US market due to new 27% tariffs. Lenders are reviewing their export loan books, focusing on impacted sectors like gems, jewellery, and textiles. Banks are also examining the tariff effects on competitors and RBI's upcoming policy review.
Overleveraged borrowers bring in big default risks, RBI warns
The Reserve Bank of India warns of potential risks as nearly half of credit card and personal loan borrowers also have mortgages or vehicle loans. Stress in the microfinance sector worsens, with increasing delinquency rates and rising borrower indebtedness, prompting RBI's supervisory actions against excessive interest rates.
India ready to give Maldives aid as sukuk default risk looms
India is prepared to offer the Maldives emergency financial support to address its financial challenges, including a potential sukuk default. The Maldives can access $400 million through the Reserve Bank of India's currency swap program and seek long-term loans under an $800 million credit line. Discussions are expected during President Mohamed Muizzu's upcoming visit to India.
Dollar on back foot as U.S. default risk weighs
The US dollar is being affected by the possibility of a default as the standoff between Democrats and Republicans over raising the debt ceiling continues. The US dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, was at 102.39 after retreating from its five-month high. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the country could reach its borrowing limit as soon as June 1. Senior FX strategist at Westpac, Sean Callow, warns that the US dollar price action has been "very messy". The potential for the dollar index is to drop, with Westpac seeing it dropping to around 101.05 in the short term.
MSME loans against property at higher default risk: Moody's
"Delinquencies will increase, but structural protections will curb deals' exposure to losses. We expect loan delinquency rates for LAP ABS, which have increased over the past year, to continue to rise. However, LAP ABS are well protected, because of the deals' structural protections, including non-amortising cash reserves and excess spread," Moody's said.
Pakistan no longer faces default risk: Minister
In response to a query, Minister for Privatisation Abid Hussain Bhayo informed the lawmakers that Services International Hotel, Lahore; property owned by the Federal Board of Revenue in Faisalabad; Heavy Electrical Complex, Taxila; Pakistan Steel Mills, Karachi; National Power Parks Management Co. Ltd and House Building Finance Company were on the list of active privatisation projects.
US blocks Russia's access to dollars, heightening default risk
A Treasury Department spokesperson said that the action was taken Monday. It was the same day more than $500 million in Russian sovereign debt payments came due. The new restriction, the spokesperson said, is intended to force Russia to choose between draining the remaining dollar reserves it has in Russia or using new revenue (from natural gas payments, for example) to make bond payments to avoid defaulting on its debt.
Cost to cover default risks goes up for banks
Credit Default Swaps, an insurance against default, tied to ICICI Bank and State Bank of India are now at elevated levels that were last seen during the peak of the first wave of coronavirus. The CDS rates seem to discount the market-beating earnings of private lenders for the fourth quarter.
Default risk for Indian firms drops at fastest pace in decade
Default risks for Indian firms are declining at the fastest pace in more than a decade.
What are the risks of investing in bank fixed deposits?
A bank fixed deposit faces five types of risks. Here is the list of those risks.
Worsening default risks are putting focus on stimulus
Credit profiles of the nation’s companies worsened to a 19-month low in July.
Homebuyers as financial creditors: Developers' default risks spike
Last August, Parliament had passed an amendment to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) allowing home-buyers to be treated as financial creditors.
India offers safe haven as default risks rise in EMs
Global investors are turning cautious on emerging markets as reflected in the rising spread of credit default swap
Fitch affirms lower default risk rating on Exim Bank
The rating (BBB-/stable) is equivalent to that of the Indian sovereign, reflective of high probability of extraordinary state support, Fitch said.
Is Dhanlaxmi Bank raising default risk for the industry?
This followed Reserve Bank of India’s restrictions on the private sector lender from paying coupon on its subordinated bonds, which don’t guarantee repayments.
'Absence of enough maintenance reserve puts lenders at risks'
MMR for road projects based on build, BOT model has exposed lenders to default risks, Icra today said in its latest study on the Indian road sector.
Credit funds may face panic selling as default risks grow
With nearly Rs 1,400 crore Amtek India bond issuances, several investors, including LIC , Axis Bank, Corporation Bank , are now facing a threat of defaults.
Fitch affirms very low default risk on ING Vyasa
Ratings agency Fitch today affirmed a very low default risk on ING Vysya Bank in the long term with a stable outlook on the lender's comfortable capital position and improved asset quality.
Fitch assigns low default risk rating to Vedanta Aluminium
"Fitch Ratings has assigned India's Vedanta Aluminium Ltd (VAL) a national long-term rating of 'A-(ind)'. The outlook is stable," it said in a statement.
Fitch affirms low default risk on Usha Martin
Ratings agency Fitch today affirmed a low default risk on steel wire rope manufacturing giant Usha Martin with a stable outlook.
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