CRUDE OIL PRICE INCREASE
RBI Policy: Complex oil math explains rise in FY27 inflation estimates
The Reserve Bank of India revised its crude oil price projections for the fiscal year 2026-27. This adjustment has led to increased inflation forecasts, now projected at 5.2% for FY27. The bank notes ongoing supply pressures and volatility in international oil prices contributing to these changes. India's merchandise trade deficit has also widened due to rising imports, especially in crude oil.
Petrol margins turn positive as OMC fuel marketing losses ease in Q2FY27: Report
Fuel marketing losses of state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) narrowed sharply in the September quarter, helped by lower crude oil prices and the full impact of retail fuel price hikes, according to Emkay Research.
RBI Inflation FY2026-27: Malhotra & Co raises inflation forecast to 5.2% for FY27
RBI Inflation 2026-27 Forecast: The Reserve Bank of India has updated its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.2% from 5.0% previously. This revision comes as retail inflation exceeds the RBI's target for three consecutive months. The rise in crude oil prices and food costs is a significant contributing factor. Additionally, a weaker rupee adds to imported commodity expenses and inflationary pressures. El Niño is also expected to impact food supply, further influencing inflation.
EIA raises oil price forecasts as Iran war tightens global markets
The EIA raised its oil price forecasts, citing tight global inventories, limited diesel supplies and ongoing Middle East supply risks. Brent crude is expected to average $105 per barrel in Q4 2026 and $84 in 2027. Recovering Gulf exports and record U.S. production may ease supply pressures next year, though geopolitical risks remain.
Oil Price Today (October 7): Crude oil rises to $101, up 45% in 3 months. Two reasons behind Wednesday’s surge
Brent futures gained 93 cents, or 0.92%, to $101.51, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 90 cents, or 1.01%, to $90.30 a barrel.
Oil prices rise as storms and air strikes threaten supply
As a storm approaches key oil-producing areas in the US and tensions heighten in Saudi Arabia, oil prices are on the rise. The impending storm threatens to disrupt both production and refining processes, potentially affecting large quantities of crude oil and natural gas. Additionally, dwindling US crude and gasoline inventories contrast with a minor increase in distillate stocks.
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US EIA lifts Brent forecast to $98 as Iran war tightens global supplies
The US Energy Information Administration has revised its oil price forecasts for the coming years due to supply issues. Global benchmark Brent crude is expected to average approximately $98 a barrel in 2026. Retail diesel prices are projected to remain high initially before gradually declining to around $4.50 in 2027. Improvements in Middle Eastern oil production are anticipated as transit routes become safer and more efficient.
Middle East oil exports are recovering despite Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks, but the bigger problem is getting crude safely to buyers
Middle Eastern oil exports have significantly recovered as shipping companies navigate a complex transport network. While conventional methods remain risky, alternate routes are being utilized to ensure continuous oil movement. Oil producers are adjusting strategies, relying on pipelines and offshore transfers to circumvent dangerous waters. The shipping process has become more expensive due to increased insurance and higher freight rates.
Federation of Indian Airlines seeks review of existing ATF pricing formula
The Federation of Indian Airlines highlighted the significant impact of rising jet fuel costs on airline operations. They emphasized that current pricing formulas are insufficient due to ongoing geopolitical issues and currency fluctuations. The FIA requested a shift to a 'Cost Plus' pricing model for Aviation Turbine Fuel. They also noted the need for government support to maintain affordable air travel for passengers.
Global Market: Gulf oil flows rebound to 81% of pre-war levels in September
Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered to 81% of pre-war levels in September, supported by a sharp rebound in Saudi Arabian exports. Crude and condensate shipments reached 91% of pre-war levels, while refined fuel exports remained weaker. Volatile daily flows, however, raise questions over the sustainability of the recovery.
Oil Price Today (October 6): Crude oil below $101 as supply concerns ease but Houthi attack keeps traders on edge
Brent crude futures gained 20 cents to $100.54 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.13%, to $89.50 a barrel. Oil was little changed after Monday’s decline as traders continued to assess a modest reduction in supply-side concerns.
Global Market: OPEC+ keeps November oil output steady as Brent tops $100
Seven major OPEC+ producers agreed to keep November crude output unchanged as the Iran conflict disrupted supplies and pushed Brent above $100 a barrel. Meanwhile, G7 nations plan to release 100 million barrels of oil and refined products, including diesel, to ease energy-market pressures and cushion consumers from soaring fuel costs.
$100/barrel crude on screen, $145/barrel in physical market: Kotak Securities sees two prices
Crude oil’s physical market price could reach nearly $145 a barrel even if benchmark prices show $100, as soaring VLCC shipping costs widen the gap, Kotak Securities’ Anindya Banerjee said. He expects India to remain protected by ample refining capacity and diversified supplies, while predicting RBI rate hikes in October and December as liquidity remains abundant.
Industry body urges cooking oil firms to pass on import duty cut to consumers as festive season nears
Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association calls on companies to reduce retail prices following recent government duty cuts. The duty reductions aim to provide consumers relief during the approaching festive season when demand rises. Companies are expected to submit their retail pricing weekly to ensure transparency in the market. Global price volatility has affected domestic edible oil prices, contributing to inflation pressures on consumers.
Oil slips as Middle East crude exports rise, G7 to release stocks
Oil prices have seen a decline as increased crude exports from the Middle East and stock releases from G7 nations boost supply levels. Brent crude futures fell by 0.34% to $101.90 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped by 0.68%. The G7's release of 100 million barrels is alleviating immediate supply concerns, although Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities are raising worries about Gulf infrastructure.
Oil Price Today (October 5): Crude oil dips $101 despite simmering Iran war tensions. Here’s why
Brent crude futures fell 70 cents, or 0.69%, to $101.60 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $90.15 a barrel, down 90 cents, or 1.07%.
RBI likely to hike repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% in October policy: ET Poll
On Monday, the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee will hold important meetings. Analysts are anticipating a 25 basis points increase in the key interest rate, raising it to 5.50%. The surge in inflation is attributed to elevated crude oil costs and subpar agricultural production. Many economists advocate for a rate hike as a crucial measure to tackle ongoing inflation issues, with outcomes to be revealed on October 7.
What will bring foreign investors back to Indian stock market? 5 things that should go right
FPIs sold more than Rs 25,000 crore of Indian equities in September as surging US bond yields, elevated crude prices and a weaker rupee reduced India’s appeal. Cooling yields and oil, currency stability, strong Q2 earnings and attractive valuations could bring foreign investors back.
Nayara Energy raises petrol price by Rs 5, diesel by Rs 3
Nayara Energy has raised petrol prices by Rs 5 a litre and diesel by Rs 3 across its more than 7,000 fuel stations as higher crude and refined-product prices squeeze margins. The move could widen the price gap with state-run retailers, which have largely kept pump prices unchanged despite rising international costs.
Why are US energy firms cutting rigs now? Baker Hughes report explained
Baker Hughes (BHI) reported that the US oil and gas rig count decreased by one to 598 for the week ended October 2. It was the first decrease in 6 weeks as the oil rig count rose to 456 and the gas rigs dropped to 133. This follows a report that US crude and gas production will increase in 2026 despite the changes in drill rig counts.
Why are oil prices down today? G7 countries' oil reserve release plan to push crude rates lower
Oil prices fell today as G7 countries moved towards releasing up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude reserves over four months. Brent crude has slipped below $100 a barrel, while US oil prices have fallen around 5% today.
Oil prices edge higher, hover around $102 as US-Iran tensions, China fuel curbs support prices; MCX closed today
Oil prices rose for a third straight session as China halted fuel exports and the US weighed additional military deployments to the Middle East. Brent crude rose 0.26% to $102.58 a barrel, while WTI gained 0.04% to $92.91. Markets also assessed tighter fuel supplies and rising geopolitical risks.
No global oil shortage, supply route disruptions driving crude prices, oil minister says
Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri highlights the current oil supply situation. He states that global oil production exceeds consumption, but disruptions are causing price increases. Puri notes geopolitical factors, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and challenges in shipping routes. Additionally, he discusses India's efforts to enhance domestic oil and gas production. Puri expresses optimism about managing India's energy challenges through collaboration and increased local production.
Oil Price Today (October 1): Crude oil at $98 as investors assess supply recovery, peace deal talks. What are analysts saying?
Brent crude was trading near $98 a barrel after touching $104 during Wednesday’s intraday trade. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November delivery fell 0.4% to $90.07 a barrel on Thursday, following a 1.2% gain in the previous session
Why are oil prices rising again? US crude and Brent November futures witness spike
Oil prices are moving upwards on Wednesday. US crude climbed 2.2% to $91.33 a barrel while Brent November futures jumped 1% at $103.71. The US stock markets are also witnessing a spike. Dow Jones rose 30.02 points to 51,379.94, the S&P 500 climbed 45.83 points to 7,716.67 and the Nasdaq Composite scaled 273.34 points to 27,071.20.
Crude surged. Why didn’t India’s petrol prices?
As the West Asia conflict drove up oil costs, India kept a much larger rise from reaching the pump. This explainer dives into how protection came from diversified supplies, a tax cut, losses absorbed by fuel retailers and an ethanol programme built before the crisis.
Why are oil prices down today?
Oil prices have begun to fall now. Brent crude futures dropped more than 1% and hovered near the $105 per barrel mark. The oil prices have been witnessing wild fluctuations due to the ongoing Middle East tensions between the US and Iran. The issue has still not resolved and can turn into war again.
Refiners feel heat physical crude trades higher than futures prices
India’s oil refiners are paying significantly more for physical crude than the futures prices making headlines, as constrained Gulf supplies keep the physical market tight. Brent spot prices averaged about $12 a barrel above November futures between September 1 and 22, with the gap widening to as much as $22. Refiners’ actual costs are driven by physical-market benchmarks, grade differentials and contract terms rather than headline futures prices alone.
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