CHETAN AHYA
Asia's industrial supercycle is outpacing the West Asia oil shock: Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley
A China-driven supply realignment, cutting gas imports by 45% and oil by 30%, has effectively added 7.5 million barrels daily to global markets, neutralising energy price fears. Morgan Stanley's Chetan Ahya argues a broad-based capex boom across AI, energy, defence, and industrial sectors is powering Asian growth, while urging India to slash foreign investor taxes to stem capital outflows.
AI, defence and energy transition to drive India’s next capex wave: Chetan Ahya
India is set for a robust industrial revival, driven by a global upturn, improving exports, and strong capital expenditure. Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley highlights AI infrastructure, defense spending, and energy transition as key structural drivers. Benign inflation and no rate hikes are expected until 2027, fostering a virtuous cycle for India's growth.
India's growth poised for recovery by late 2025; US growth likely to slow to 1% in Q4: Chetan Ahya
Morgan Stanley's Chetan Ahya anticipates India's economic recovery by late 2025, driven by government initiatives and RBI rate cuts. While GST rationalization may ease inflation, managing low inflation remains a key focus. The RBI is expected to cut rates further, while the Fed's decision hinges on upcoming jobs data, influencing global financial flows.
How is India benefiting from supply chain diversification away from China? Morgan Stanley’s Chetan Ahya explains
Morgan Stanley's Chetan Ahya highlights India's growing advantage over China due to tariff differences. American companies are considering increased imports from India. Government policies are significantly boosting manufacturing and exports. Electronics manufacturing is expanding beyond mobile phones. Infrastructure development will further strengthen India's manufacturing exports. Optimism in Indian equity markets aligns with positive economic fundamentals.
RBI may go for three more rate cuts if global trade slowdown impacts growth severely: Chetan Ahya
Morgan Stanley's Chetan Ahya anticipates further disinflation in India and the region due to declining oil prices and a strengthening rupee, enabling the Reserve Bank of India to implement more significant rate cuts. India and Australia are seen as relatively insulated from global shocks, with India benefiting from strong domestic demand and resilient service exports.
India doing well on a relative basis, but can’t escape growth slowdown due to tariff tantrum: Chetan Ahya
Morgan Stanley projects India's economic growth to slow to 5.7% in Q4 due to global trade tensions, despite strong domestic demand and government spending. While Asia ex-China shows rebounding shipping activity, caution is advised due to empty ships. Capital expenditure slowdown is expected, with monthly capital goods imports data serving as a key indicator.
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How will US-China trade tensions impact global corporate capex & Asia's GDP growth? Chetan Ahya answers
Morgan Stanley economist Chetan Ahya predicts trade tensions will hurt global investment. Asia's GDP growth may fall from 4.8% to 3.6% by late 2025. The US may reduce tariffs, but uncertainty will remain. Tariffs on autos and semiconductors will affect Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. Pharma tariffs may impact India, China, and Japan.
Auto sales indicate slowing down in urban economy: Chetan Ahya
Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley discusses the current slowdown in India's urban economy and predicts a recovery driven by increased government expenditure. He highlights signs of improvement in rural demand and private sector capital expenditure. Despite the short-term urban slowdown, projections indicate a stabilized GDP growth rate close to 7% in the near future.
Expect decent consumption growth but investment growth will be stronger: Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley
Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley compares past and present investment trends in India, emphasizing the significance of investment growth for sustainable economic development. He discusses various factors impacting the current economic cycle and growth outlook. He also said we should not expect a big acceleration in rural consumption growth in terms of FMCG companies’ volume growth.
Morgan Stanley sees a recession within a year if US-China trade war gets any worse
As the negative effects of the tariffs become more apparent, it may be too late for political action.
Global growth is tracking above 4% in the second quarter: Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley
"This is the first time that we are seeing this synchronous recovery in EM and DM since 2011 and the fourth is that we are seeing actually investment recovery in the global economy that is also the first time we are seeing after many years of deceleration," said Ahya.
Bullish on India's growth outlook; global factors will be less constraining in 2016: Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley
We expect that the global factors will be less constraining than what they have been in 2015, particularly the exports contraction should not be as bad as it was.
India macro is coming back into attention of global investors: Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley
Things are definitely turning around for the Indian economy
See a mild recovery going forward: Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley
Public capex and the FDI inflows can help economic growth
India stands out to win as the world battles 3D effect
Adrian Lim of Aberdeen AM Asia says India very much remains in business and his firm remains an overweight on the country.
Global economy struggling with debt, demographics and disinflation: Chetan Ahya
A lot of the tightening that is happening in the US is through the rise of the dollar itself, Ahya says in an interview to ET Now.
Deflationary pressure from China poses bigger risk than Fed rate hike: Chetan Ahya
A likely pickup in capex, FDI investments and consumer discretionary demand may drive the GDP growth going forward, says Ahya.
China's massive economic advantage over the world is about to disappear
In an attempt to get growth out of declining fundamentals, China has been investing more and more in its businesses and government enterprises.
Will investors sentiment in cyclical stocks revive? Likely, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley said the government is taking measures to revive private investment through, acceleration in project related approval process.
Indian economy in for good times: Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley
Predicting an average sub-5 per cent inflation this year, Morgan Stanly has said India is in for a long period of higher sustainable growth and lower prices.
Morgan Stanley blames misguided policy mix for dip in growth
The New York-headquartered bank has cut its growth forecast from the earlier 6.3 percent for the current fiscal citing a "bad growth mix".
India facing downside risk to growth: Chetan Ahya, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley
We are consciously highlighting the downside risk of 50 bps to our growth estimates, says Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley.
India to become world's fastest growing economy by 2013-15: Morgan Stanley
India is poised to accelerate its growth rate to 9-9.5% over 2013-15, even as China will cool down to 9% by 2012 and to 8% by 2015.
25 bps hike in key rates not enough to deal with inflation: Chetan Ahya
We are expecting RBI to do a 25 basis point hike in repo and reverse repo tomorrow but we do not think this is going to be enough.
Asia’s troubles widen
Asia is staring at a much sharper economic slowdown next year than earlier anticipated because of a deepening global recession, US bank Morgan Stanley said on Tuesday.
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