US midterm elections 2026: Top races, leads and who is winning in November

US midterm elections 2026: The 2026 US midterm elections are beginning to take shape, with the latest polling showing Democrats ahead on the national congressional ballot and in two closely watched Senate races.

The results of a poll carried out by NPR/PBS News/Marist show that the Democratic candidates had an edge over their Republican competitors when registered voters were asked to reveal who they were more likely to vote for Congress in their district. Even the margin of victory over Republicans was bigger when independents were asked about their preference.

The poll also looked at the role US president Donald Trump could play in congressional voting. While some voters said their choice would mainly be a vote for Trump, others said it would be a vote against him. A separate group said Trump would not have much of an influence on their decision.

Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas

Texas is one of the Senate races drawing attention in the latest polling.

Rep. James Talarico of the democratic party leads Ken Paxton of the republican party in the recent Marist poll. Talarico leads Paxton by six points in this poll of voters. This race was covered in the Forbes list of Senate races.

There is an interesting difference between the poll numbers and what voters think will happen. While Talarico holds an advantage over his opponent in terms of voter preferences at present, it turns out that most voters expect Paxton to emerge victorious in this race.

Such a gap between polls and predictions is significant since voters’ expectations do not necessarily reflect voter preferences.

Turek Leads Hinson in Iowa

Iowa shows a similar divide.

Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek is ahead of Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in the latest Marist poll. Turek has a lead among voters surveyed, but Hinson has the advantage when respondents are asked who they think will ultimately win.

Forbes also included the Iowa contest in its roundup of Senate races being closely watched.

More Senate Races in Focus

The Texas and Iowa contests are not the only races attracting attention. Forbes also highlighted Senate races in Michigan, Florida, Kansas, Alaska, Maine and Ohio.

The roundup includes Democratic and Republican candidates competing in each of those states, with recent polling showing a number of closely contested races.

Meanwhile, the national Marist survey found Democrats ahead of Republicans on several issues voters are being asked to consider. Democrats held an edge on the economy, foreign policy and gas prices, while the parties were much closer on immigration.

What the Latest Polls Show

Taken together, the latest surveys offer an early snapshot of the midterm landscape. Democrats are ahead on the national congressional ballot, while Talarico leads Paxton in Texas and Turek leads Hinson in Iowa in the latest Marist polling.

At the same time, the Texas and Iowa surveys show that what voters expect to happen can look quite different from their current candidate preferences.

The polling reflects where the races stand at the time the surveys were conducted. It should not be treated as the final outcome of the 2026 midterm elections.