US elections 2026: The S&P 500 has never been lower a year after a midterm since 1950. Can 2026 break the streak?

S&P 500 has risen after every midterm since 1950. Can 2026 break that streak? Americans vote in the midterm elections today, and Wall Street is watching a rare pattern. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained in the 12 months after every midterm. That is 19 out of 19.

Futures were mixed early Tuesday. As of 7:14 a.m. ET, Dow futures were down 453 points, or 0.87%, at 51,680. S&P 500 futures fell 14.75 points, or 0.19%, to 7,559.75. Nasdaq futures rose 33.50 points, or 0.12%, to 28,161.

S&P 500 after US midterm elections: What the numbers show

The S&P 500 took its current form, with 500 companies, in 1950. Since then, it has been higher one year after each midterm vote.

The average gain over those 12 months is about 15%. Some of those years were hard ones, including the Korean War and the 1973 oil shock. The index still ended up higher each time.

ALSO READ: Stocks rose after every US midterm elections since 1946. Why that streak may not mean what investors think

Robert W. Baird & Co. looked at the low point of each midterm year. It found the index rose an average of 32% in the year after that low.

The pattern is older than the S&P 500. Fidelity Investments found that the index and its predecessor rose 95% of the time in the 12 months after midterms since 1938.

Why stocks tend to rise after midterms

No one knows the exact reason, but there are a few theories.

The most common one is that the vote removes uncertainty. Markets dislike not knowing what comes next, and an election result settles part of that question.

A second reason is how midterms usually go. The party that does not hold the White House typically wins seats in Congress. That often leaves the government divided between the two parties, and stocks tend to do better under divided government.

Why this year could be different

The biggest risk is price. Stocks cost a lot compared with most of history.

One measure is the Shiller CAPE ratio. It compares stock prices with company earnings over the past 10 years, adjusted for inflation. It is near its second-highest level ever. It was higher only in late 1999 and early 2000, just before the dot-com bubble burst and stocks crashed.

Another measure is the Buffett indicator. It compares the value of all U.S. stocks with the size of the economy, measured by gross domestic product. The ratio is about 235% now. The record is almost 237%, set in August 2026.

Warren Buffett warned about this measure nearly 25 years ago. He said that when the ratio nears 200%, investors are “playing with fire.” It is now well above that level.

What it means for investors

History favors the bulls. A 19-for-19 record is hard to ignore, and the 15% average gain shows how strong the pattern has been.

But a pattern is not a promise. Every past streak began from a different starting price. Today’s prices are among the highest ever recorded, which leaves less room for error if profits fall short.