US CHINA TRADE TENSIONS 2026
Widening CAD a concern, says Niti Report
In its quarterly Trade Watch Report for the quarter to December 2026, released on Monday, it said the instability in West Asia has slowed the India-Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Agreement (FTA), affecting trade diversification and market access. "FTAs are not a one way street, nor should they be, which is to say that in the way that we are seeing them as a tool for market access, others are seeing it as a tool for market access too," said NITI Aayog vice chairman Suman Bery.
600 million barrels gone, gas +47%, jet fuel +100%: is the global energy crisis 2026 from US– Iran war about to trigger inflation shock and global recession?
The global energy crisis 2026 is intensifying fast. Over 600 million barrels of oil supply are now lost, triggering a historic oil shock. The crisis is linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy route. US gas prices have surged 47% since December. Inflation is now nearing 4% again. Europe is facing a jet fuel spike above 100%, raising flight disruption risks. This global energy crisis 2026 is pushing oil prices higher worldwide. Supply chains are tightening. Energy inflation is spreading across sectors. The risk is clear. A prolonged oil supply shock could drive a global economic slowdown and reshape markets.
China voices concern over US seizure of Iranian cargo ship, urges further talks
China voiced strong concern over the U.S. seizure of an Iranian cargo ship, urging all parties to respect the ceasefire and prevent further escalation in the sensitive Strait of Hormuz. Beijing emphasized the need to create conditions for the resumption of normal transit, highlighting the current "window for peace" and advocating for an swift end to the conflict.
India resilient amid oil shock, may grow 6.8%-7.1% despite global headwinds: SBI Research
India faces global challenges from a strong position. Economic growth is projected between 6.8% and 7.1% for FY27. The nation's banking sector is robust. Opportunities arise for GIFT City and Indian airports. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain its current monetary policy stance. India's resilience is evident amidst regional conflict and global uncertainties.
Aluminium prices at record highs: What’s driving the rally and what’s next?
Aluminium prices have surged to multi-year highs, driven by strong demand, supply constraints, and rising energy costs. Geopolitical tensions and declining inventories have added volatility and a risk premium. With China’s demand robust and supply tight, the outlook remains firm, though risks from easing tensions or slowdown persist.
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Akshaya Tritiya 2026 gold outlook: Which trends are expected to shape gold purchases this Akshaya Tritiya?
Gold's strong appeal continues for Akshaya Tritiya 2026. Investors are showing interest in coins and small bars. Global economic concerns and geopolitical tensions are driving gold price volatility. Experts suggest this volatility is an opportunity to gradually build gold positions. Consumers are also exploring diamonds and silver alongside gold.
Hormuz blockade stirs tension over Malacca Strait near Singapore
Singapore emphasizes transit rights under international law. Malaysia favors dialogue with Iran. The region's strategic position remains a global focus.
Akshaya Tritiya 2026: Gold stocks soar up to 25% in a month! Will rally soften after auspicious festival?
Jewellery stocks have emerged as standout performers despite broader market volatility triggered by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. Shares of companies like Kalyan Jewellers, Titan, and PC Jeweller have surged up to 25% in a month, far outpacing the Nifty’s gains.
China asks Iran to ensure freedom of navigation through Strait of Hormuz
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has urged Iran to guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This critical waterway is vital for global oil trade. China, a major importer of Iranian oil, is concerned about energy disruptions. The call comes as Pakistan attempts to mediate new peace talks between the US and Iran.
Engineering exports hit record high in FY26; govt support, FTAs boost growth: EEPC’s Chadha
Indian engineering exports achieved a record $122.43 billion in FY25-26. This growth occurred despite geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts. The sector demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability.
India's trade gap shrinks in March, swells in FY26
India's trade deficit saw a reduction in March as the West Asia conflict disrupted trade flows. Exports and imports both declined, narrowing the monthly deficit. However, the overall trade deficit for the fiscal year widened. Despite challenges, India achieved record exports of $860 billion in FY26, showcasing resilience. Several free trade agreements are expected to boost future trade prospects.
US Israel-Iran War Day 47: Pakistan mediation, IMF risk warnings and Trump’s ceasefire optimism drive parallel tracks
Iran War Day 47 Updates: The Iran-Israel war continues with signs of peace talks emerging. US President Donald Trump believes the conflict is nearing its end. Diplomatic efforts are underway between Israel and Lebanon. However, military actions persist, and economic pressures are mounting globally. The core issue of Iran's nuclear program remains a key point of contention. Global powers are engaging to de-escalate the situation.
India‘s textile and apparel exports degrow by -2.22% in FY 26: Govt Data
Indian textile and apparel exports saw a decline in fiscal year 26. Exports in March also registered a year-on-year drop. This comes after the US imposed high tariffs. Meanwhile, India's import of raw cotton increased significantly. This surge followed a period of eased import duties.
China surpasses US as India's largest trading partner in FY26; trade gap swells to USD 112.16 bn
India's trade with China reached USD 151.1 billion in 2025-26, making it the largest partner. The trade deficit with China widened significantly. The US was previously the top partner for four years. India's exports to China saw substantial growth, while imports also increased. Trade with the US showed marginal export growth and increased imports, leading to a reduced trade surplus.
Commodity Radar: Why is copper in a bullish trade set-up and offers buy on dips opportunity? Religare analyst decodes
Copper prices rebound after Strait of Hormuz tensions ease and demand outlook improves, supported by China’s inflation data. However, rising London Metal Exchange inventories may cap gains, even as technical indicators signal bullish near term momentum.
India gem and jewellery exports rise to ₹2.44 lakh crore in FY26 amid global headwinds
In FY26, India's gem and jewellery sector reported an impressive ₹2,44,827.26 crore in exports, demonstrating a modest growth in rupee terms. However, exports in dollar value experienced a downturn amidst global market turbulence. To counter this, exporters expanded their reach, finding new opportunities in the UAE, Australia, and Canada.
India unveils a power-packed FTA calendar: UK, Oman, New Zealand deals next
In 2026, India will embark on an ambitious journey to amplify its role in global commerce. The commencement of pivotal free trade agreements with the United Kingdom and Oman, alongside an impending partnership with New Zealand, highlights India's strategic focus on fostering robust international connections. This proactive approach demonstrates the nation's dedication to turning diplomatic negotiations into thriving economic collaborations.
Indian parents back social media ban for under-16s, new UK survey finds
Parents in India have strongly backed a social media ban for under-16s, logging the second-highest score at 75% after Malaysia (77%) in new worldwide research released by the UK-based education charity Varkey Foundation on Tuesday.
IMF raises India FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.5% even as the world stumbles through conflict
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised India’s growth forecast for FY27 to 6.5%, up 0.1 percentage point from its January estimate, and expects growth to hold steady at the same level in FY28, even as it flags rising geopolitical risks from the war in the Middle East.
China's March exports slow as Iran war wipes out AI-driven gains
China’s export growth slowed sharply in March to 2.5%, a five-month low, as the impact of the Middle East conflict and rising energy costs offset strong demand driven by artificial intelligence-related goods, according to customs data. While exports missed expectations, imports surged 27.8%, signalling resilient domestic demand. The slowdown marks an early test of whether AI-led export momentum can counter the global energy shock triggered by tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant share of global oil and gas flows.
IMF raises India's growth forecast to 6.5% for FY27
The International Monetary Fund has raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.5 per cent for the current fiscal year. India is set to be the world's fastest-growing economy. Other global institutions also show optimism for India's economic performance. Projections indicate continued strong growth in the coming years.
Trump’s Hormuz blockade: What’s at stake amid global chaos and ripple risks for India
A US-led naval blockade on Iran has sharply escalated tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global oil flows, trade routes and geopolitical stability. Oil prices have surged past $100 as shipping risks, insurance costs and supply disruptions ripple across markets. While enforcement remains complex and legally contested, the bigger risk lies in escalation and second-order effects—especially for importers like India, which could face higher crude prices and tighter supply as global demand reshuffles.
'World order is crumbling,' Xi says as Iran war strains global stability
Chinese President Xi Jinping told Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez that the “world order is crumbling into disarray” amid the Iran war, urging closer ties and multilateral cooperation. The meeting focused on economic relations, global conflicts, and Spain’s push to act as a bridge between China and the European Union.
Rupee plunges 49 paise to 93.32 against US dollar in early trade
The Indian Rupee weakened significantly against the US Dollar today. Higher crude oil prices and global geopolitical tensions are impacting the currency. Investors are withdrawing funds from domestic stock markets. This situation follows a recent drop in the Rupee's value. The US has announced a blockade of Iranian ports, further affecting oil prices and global trade.
Apple sails through market slump, claims top spot
Apple has topped global smartphone shipments for the first quarter of 2026. The company saw a 5% growth year-on-year. Overall smartphone shipments declined by 6%. This drop was attributed to memory component shortages and Middle East tensions affecting consumer sentiment. Apple's strong performance in China contributed to its market leadership.
US GDP growth crashes to 0.5% in Q4 2025— why the US economy slowed sharply despite 4.4% surge? Did 43-day shutdown or Iran war trigger recession fears?
US GDP growth crashes to 0.5% in Q4 2025. The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis confirms a sharp fall in US GDP growth. The economy expanded at just 0.5% in Q4 2025. This came well below expectations near 0.7% to 2.8%. It also marked a steep drop from the strong 4.4% recorded in Q3. The sharp fall in US GDP growth reflects a mix of weakening demand and policy shocks. Consumer spending slowed to 1.9%, below earlier estimates. Goods demand barely grew, showing households are pulling back. Services spending held better but still cooled from previous levels.
Gold prices are falling but why China keeps buying gold aggressively – Is the US dollar under threat and why are gold prices not following the demand-supply trend despite continued China demand
Gold prices are falling sharply, yet China gold buying spree keeps accelerating globally. China added 160,000 ounces in March, extending its 17-month buying streak. This raises a critical question about demand-supply trends in gold markets today. Why are gold prices not following demand supply logic despite strong China demand? China gold buying spree signals deeper concerns around currency stability and global financial risks. Many now question if the US dollar faces long-term pressure from this shift. Central banks still plan massive gold purchases in 2026. This suggests gold demand remains structurally strong despite price declines. Is this a hidden market reset unfolding quietly?
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