REVISIONS IN GDP ESTIMATES
CEA defends India's GDP data, says country does not use methodology changes to inflate growth numbers
Nageswaran responded to concerns raised by some economists over India's GDP estimates, stressing that GDP measurement is an estimate in every country and that India follows internationally accepted statistical practices.
Is India's economic growth real? Raghuram Rajan says something is off
Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan questions India's strong economic growth figures, citing weak corporate investment and declining foreign capital inflows. He argues these factors are difficult to reconcile with official data, suggesting a disconnect between headline numbers and business behavior. Rajan also highlights the lack of a clear economic roadmap and warns of vulnerabilities from the Middle East conflict.
Europe is finally, slowly getting its act together
Europe stands on the brink of a pivotal transformation, launching a set of ambitious reforms aimed at revitalizing its economy and global footprint. By strategically pushing for the expansion of major banks, tech giants, and defense sectors, the European Union is determined to avoid the pitfalls of a second-tier economy.
Indian banks better placed than APAC peers: Fitch on West Asia woes
India's banking sector is resilient against the economic impact of the US-Israel conflict with Iran, according to Fitch Ratings. While other APAC nations face pressure from rising fuel costs and slower growth, India maintains a neutral outlook. However, small borrowers might experience strain if oil prices continue to surge, impacting domestic demand and consumer spending.
12 years of PM Modi: India should not only be resilient but also be antifragile
India faces significant global uncertainty and external challenges. Despite strong economic growth and improved financial stability, domestic investment remains a concern. The nation's resilience is being tested by fluctuating oil prices and global protectionism. Prime Minister Modi's leadership and the collective will of India are crucial as the country navigates these complex times.
Fitch cuts FY27 growth projection to 6.4%; US-Iran war to slow down economy
Fitch Ratings has reduced India's GDP growth projection to 6.4 percent for the current fiscal year. The US-Iran war is expected to slow economic activity in the September and December quarters. Rising prices will dampen consumer spending. For FY28, growth is expected to pick up to 6.7 percent. Fitch also anticipates the Reserve Bank of India will increase interest rates.
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India's new GDP yardstick: What changed, what did not, and what every investor should now read differently
India changed the base year used to measure its economy from 2011-12 to 2022-23. The first full-year provisional numbers under the new yardstick landed on June 5. Real GDP growth for FY26 came in at 7.7%, while nominal GDP stood at Rs. 346.36 lakh crore. The economy did not suddenly change. The denominator did. That matters because every macro ratio investors look at (debt-to-GDP, market-cap-to-GDP, tax-to-GDP) now sits on a recalibrated base. This is the framework investors need before the next round of macro headlines arrives.
RBI's reform package could pull $40-75b inflows, push rupee to 92-93 and keep August rate on hold
The RBI's recent announcements are expected to attract substantial foreign capital, potentially strengthening the rupee. Analysts anticipate the monetary policy committee will hold interest rates steady in August. Measures include expanding access to government securities and offering incentives for foreign investments. These steps aim to boost the economy and manage currency fluctuations.
Stock picks of the week: 6 stocks with consistent score improvement and upside potential of up to 29%
At a time when there are so many headwinds for the markets, it is tough to imagine that things can get better. But sentiment is a fickle thing and can change before you know it. And by the time you figure out why, the market would have moved on. So, while there is no doubt that more headwinds await the Indian economy, it is probably time to look beyond – at a few things that are not obvious. Our selected stocks for today depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars: Earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk, and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame
India defies West Asia war concerns as Q4 GDP growth hits 7.8%; risks remain ahead
India's economy surged by a better-than-expected 7.8% in the March quarter, exceeding forecasts and pushing FY26 growth to 7.7%. This robust performance was driven by strong private investment and consumption, defying concerns over the West Asia war. The government remains committed to its reform agenda to maintain economic momentum.
India can return to 7% GDP growth path in FY28 with macro stability, supply measures: CEA Nageswaran
India is on the brink of achieving a robust 7 percent growth in FY28, contingent on maintaining macro stability and ensuring supply chains remain intact. The improvement of external conditions will play a critical role in this outlook. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank has adjusted its FY27 GDP forecast down to 6.6 percent, grappling with elevated energy costs and supply interruptions.
India’s GDP expands 7.7% in FY26; Q4 growth at 7.8%
India GDP Data Key Insights Q4 FY26: India's economic growth saw a slight dip to 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026. The Reserve Bank of India has now lowered its growth projection for fiscal year 2027 to 6.6 percent. This adjustment comes amid increasing global uncertainties. The central bank anticipates varied growth rates across the four quarters of fiscal year 2027.
Rate hikes are coming, RBI has sent a clear signal, says Anubhuti Sahay, Standard Chartered
Despite holding the repo rate steady, the Reserve Bank of India's significantly upgraded inflation forecasts signal a strong likelihood of rate hikes from August. Anubhuti Sahay of Standard Chartered highlights that elevated inflation projections, coupled with upside risks from oil prices and El Niño, suggest a deliberate sequencing of policy tools, with further rate increases firmly in view.
Exclusive | Is the India story over for FIIs? BofA says investors don't want to miss what's next
India's global equity market capitalization ranking has dropped to seventh as foreign investors shift focus to AI opportunities in Taiwan and South Korea. Despite this, genuine excitement for India's long-term economic potential remains, with investors preparing for its eventual resurgence.
Deficient monsoon risk rises, but macro impact on GDP expected to stay muted
India's agricultural output and inflation face heightened concerns as the India Meteorological Department forecasts a stronger probability of deficient rainfall. However, the impact on agriculture GVA and overall GDP growth is expected to be limited due to a weakening correlation with rainfall over the past two decades, attributed to factors like increased irrigation and a growing share of non-crop sectors.
New producer price index set to replace WPI over next five years
India is set to introduce a new Producer Price Index, covering output, input, and services. This move aims to provide a more accurate picture of inflation. The existing Wholesale Price Index will be phased out over five years. The new indices will use 2022-23 as the base year. This transition aligns with global standards and IMF recommendations.
India overhauls inflation framework with new Producer Price Index, revised WPI
India is set to introduce a new Producer Price Index and a revamped Wholesale Price Index from June 15. This significant overhaul aims to align with global standards and better capture price trends. The revised WPI will cover more commodities and include renewable energy. New Producer Price Indices for goods and services will also be rolled out.
Nifty at 25,900 by March 2027? Nomura cites key catalysts to watch out for
Indian stocks have seen a sharp fall. Nomura predicts the Nifty will climb almost 11% to reach 25,900 by March 2027. This optimism stems from hopes of a West Asia conflict resolution and a strong AI theme. Despite recent selling by foreign investors, Indian equities have shown resilience. Nomura favors exporters, financials, and IT services, while remaining cautious on consumption.
India's CPI inflation expected to rise to 4.8% with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27: Report
Forecasts indicate that by FY27, India’s inflation could hit 4.8%, driven by crude oil prices projected at USD 90 per barrel. Factors such as the ongoing conflict in West Asia and a less favorable monsoon outlook are pivotal. Economic growth might taper to 6.3%, with both fiscal and current account deficits expected to increase.
India meets FY26 fiscal deficit goal at 4.4% of GDP despite revenue and global pressures
In a commendable feat, the Indian government has hit its FY26 fiscal deficit goal of 4.4% of GDP, largely due to prudent expenditure management. With net tax receipts reaching 98.1% of the anticipated target and non-tax revenues exceeding projections, the overall government spending was also well within planned constraints.
India meets FY26 fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP; revenue deficit at 1.55%
India's fiscal deficit reached the budgeted 4.4% of GDP for fiscal 2026. This eases immediate government finance worries. However, the focus shifts to next year's ambitious consolidation target. The country might face challenges meeting the current year's deficit goal due to rising subsidy costs. Revenue receipts showed mixed performance compared to the previous year.
GDP growth likely eased in January-March quarter on softer external demand
India's economic growth is projected to have eased to 7.2% in Q1 2026, as weaker external demand and industrial activity tempered strong government spending and agricultural resilience. While external shocks haven't derailed its fastest-growing major economy status, subdued private investment remains a concern. Services growth is expected to stay robust, but manufacturing may see slower expansion.
RBI MPC meet: Central bank likely to maintain status quo on rates, adopt cautious approach amid West Asia crisis
Experts anticipate the Reserve Bank of India will maintain its key policy rate at 5.25 percent this week. The central bank is expected to adopt a cautious approach, considering potential inflation headwinds and growth challenges. Factors like West Asia turmoil, rising energy prices, and a weakening rupee are influencing this outlook.
RBI warns West Asia war may hurt India growth outlook
The central bank said the impact of the conflict is likely to remain contained in the near term but warned that an escalation could derail India's otherwise positive growth trajectory.
US stocks today: S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closing highs as US and Iran agree to extend ceasefire
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closing highs as hopes of a US Iran ceasefire extension boosted sentiment. Investors also digested US inflation rising to a three-year high and weaker GDP revision. AI and tech stocks led gains, with Microsoft, Snowflake, Eli Lilly and Marvell among top movers today.
Behind the petrol pump: Why fuel retailers losing Rs 7-8 per litre need $85 crude oil to stop bleeding cash
Oil companies face continued losses of Rs 7-8 per litre on petrol and diesel, with a breakeven point only at crude prices of $85-87 a barrel. Despite recent price hikes, government reluctance to reverse duty cuts and fiscal pressures mean OMCs are absorbing the pain, potentially impacting non-defence capital expenditure.
RBI dividend provides fiscal buffer, but inflation risks loom large: Kanika Pasricha, Union Bank
The Reserve Bank of India's dividend payout provides a small fiscal buffer. However, government finances face pressure from fuel excise cuts and rising fertiliser subsidies. Inflation risks are increasing due to higher fuel prices. This situation suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy as the central bank monitors economic indicators.
US Stock Market: Wall Street faces macro headwinds after strong earnings season
U.S. equities face increased volatility as investors pivot from strong earnings to macroeconomic concerns like rising inflation and elevated Treasury yields. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are exacerbating these worries, with upcoming inflation data and Fed policy expectations now key market drivers.
More accurate data soon: Big missing link in India's economy dashboard finally gets set to go live
Come July, India will unveil its inaugural Index of Services Production to correctly assess the pulse of the country's critical services sector. By tracking short-term shifts in services output, this index aims to make the economy's readings better, in tow with the IIP.
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