CRISIL REPORT ON CAD
India’s current account deficit may rise to 2% of GDP in FY27 if oil stays at $82–87: CRISIL
Rising oil prices could push India's current account deficit to a concerning two percent of GDP, as highlighted by a Crisil report. This prediction hinges on the volatile global market conditions we’re currently facing. While US tariff reductions may bolster exports to some extent, the ongoing unrest in West Asia is another pivotal aspect that could affect the situation.
Crisil warns of potential hit to India remittances amid West Asia conflict
India's remittance flow faces potential impact from the West Asia conflict. A third of diaspora inflows originate from Gulf Cooperation Council countries. A reduction in diaspora incomes could affect India's current account deficit. This comes at a time when the trade deficit is already under pressure. India is the world's largest beneficiary of remittances.
Iran's Gulf attacks put India’s money flowing engine into one of the toughest tests
India's essential remittance inflows are confronting an extraordinary obstacle. The intensifying turmoil in West Asia is fueling anxiety among millions of Indians working abroad. This turbulence could drastically reduce the money transferred home, potentially weakening India's financial standing. Analysts express concern over a looming decrease in remittances, with potential repercussions for the current account and currency health.
1 strait, 5 transmission channels: The ways in which higher crude oil prices will impact the Indian economy – and your portfolio
If oil prices stay over $100 for an extended period, it will impact everything from the household budget, the government’s fiscal arithmetic, RBI’s policy calculus, and your equity portfolio. It is not that we have not been in such a bind before. We have: In 2008, in 2013, in 2022. And each time, the economy has adjusted. But it has not done so without pain, and not without significant wealth transfers between sectors and asset classes.
CRISIL flags strong headwinds for merchandise exports
Indian merchandise exports face challenges from the US-India trade deal stalemate and possible US sanctions on Russian crude oil. Tea and basmati rice may see pressure. However, the current account deficit is projected to stay manageable due to strong services trade and remittances.
India's exports to US decline, non-US markets show strength: Report
India's exports to the United States have seen a decline. Shipments to other countries are performing strongly, exceeding previous growth. This trend follows a US tariff hike. Global trade growth is also projected to slow. However, India's current account deficit is expected to remain manageable due to strong services exports and remittances.
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India's goods exports likely to face headwinds in fiscal 2026: CRISIL
CRISIL forecasts headwinds for India's goods exports in fiscal 2026 due to potential US reciprocal tariffs, with negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement underway. Global growth is expected to slow, impacting India's merchandise trade. However, a services trade surplus and remittances should keep the current account deficit at a manageable 1.3% of GDP.
India's current account deficit to widen in FY26, GDP to grow by 6.5 per cent: Crisil
India's economy is projected to grow at 6.5% in FY26, supported by lower inflation and expected RBI rate cuts, provided there are no major global shocks. While government spending will aid growth, stronger private sector investments are crucial. Export challenges and a widening current account deficit could impact momentum.
India's CAD projected at 1 pc of GDP for FY2025: CRISIL
India's current account deficit is projected to stay around 1% of GDP in fiscal 2025, supported by strong financial inflows and a steady services trade surplus. Despite pressures from rising merchandise trade deficits, healthy remittances and increased foreign portfolio investments have maintained stability.
Narrowing trade deficit, rise in remittances aid current account surplus: CRISIL
Financial flows also increased leading to accretion in foreign exchange reserves during the fourth quarter amounting to USD 30.8 billion, it said. The country's foreign reserves, as of June 14, 2024, stood at USD 652.9 billion. The report said even though the FDI inflows continued, there has also been a rise in outward FDI, leading to a reduction in net flows, the report said.
Household savings likely revived in FY24: Crisil
Household savings in India likely saw a recovery in FY24, rebounding from a low in FY23, driven by increased deposit growth, investments in markets and real estate, and subdued consumption, according to Crisil. Bank deposits grew 13.5%, mutual fund investments rose, and domestic savings financed rising investments.
India much better equipped than emerging market peers to handle global risks: Crisil
If CAD were to balloon, the rupee would face depreciation pressure while elevated crude oil prices, trade wars, increased dollar demand, monetary policy normalisation in advanced economies could stoke capital outflows from India.
India's export competitiveness at a decade low: Crisil
India’s exports have fallen despite a favourable global trade environment which is expected to rise to 3.6% in 2017 from 3.2% in 2016.
India’s current account deficit narrows to $300 million, lowest level in 7 years
The balance of payments surplus in January-March was $3.3 billion, compared to a surplus of $4.1 billion in October-December, according to the Reserve Bank of India.
Crisil expects rupee at 64/US$ by March
Crisil said there are two-third chances that the rupee can touch the level of 64 against the US dollar by March-end 2016, while there is one-third chance it may reach 67 per dollar.
HNI segment reports 8.21% rise in MF folios
As per a report by CRISIL research, the high net worth individuals or HNI (individuals investing Rs 5 lakh or more) segment saw a rise of 8.21%.
Despite export fall, analysts see CAD under control at 1.7 per cent
The export touched $ 310.5 bn last fiscal, which was down 1.2 per cent from $ 314.1 bn in the previous fiscal and 7.5 per cent lower than the estimate.
India Inc capex to fall 4% next fiscal: Crisil
A majority of Indian corporates see capital investment picking up next fiscal but their own plans show a decline in investments in FY16, led by the private sector companies, Crisil said today.
Crisil sees final FY14 CAD print at 2%; 2.7% in FY15
India's current account deficit (CAD) was likely to narrow to a 6-year low of 2 per cent of GDP this fiscal, but may expand to 2.7 per cent in FY15 as the imports pick up, ratings agency Crisil said.
Growth to slip to 4.8% in FY'14; to improve next year: Crisil
The International Monetary Fund yesterday projected economy to grow at 4.6 per cent this fiscal.
CAD likely to narrow to 1.1-1.2% of GDP in Q3: Rating agencies
The country's current account deficit is likely to decline to 1.1-1.2 per cent of the gross domestic product in the third quarter, say rating agencies.
Trade gap set for huge improvement on lower imports: Analysts
CAD is likely to narrow during 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal to touch a low of 1.5% of GDP because of lower gold imports.
Current account deficit to taper in Q2 but may not stabilise in the short term, say economists
The current account deficit is expected to drop in the subsequent quarter as demand for gold has tapered and exports have risen.
Rupee to strengthen to 60-61 level by fiscal-end: Analysts
The rupee has fallen over 20% against the dollar since April. The currency had dropped to a fresh life-time low of 65.56 against the greenback yesterday.
Crisil slashes GDP forecast to 5.5% on rupee weakness
RBI has come out with a slew of steps to squeeze liquidity out of the system to stabilise rupee, during hit a record of low 61.21 on July 8.
Crisil sees rupee settling at 56 by fiscal end on capital inflows
We expect rupee to appreciate from current lows to about 56 by March-end as capital inflows resume and CAD softens this fiscal," Crisil said.
Crisil lowers current fiscal growth forecast to six per cent
In the Budget, Finance Minister P Chidambaram had said the government was targeting a growth of 6.1-6.7 per cent for the current fiscal.
CAD to dip in Q4 from record high; seen at 5% in FY13: Nomura
Nomura estimated a CAD of 5 per cent for this fiscal and also pegged it at the same level for the next financial year.
Current account deficit likely to fall to 3.1 per cent this fiscal, says CRISIL
The CAD, which is the difference between the forex earned and expended, has come down to 3.9% in first quarter of this fiscal.
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