CAD
Widening CAD a concern, says Niti Report
In its quarterly Trade Watch Report for the quarter to December 2026, released on Monday, it said the instability in West Asia has slowed the India-Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Agreement (FTA), affecting trade diversification and market access. "FTAs are not a one way street, nor should they be, which is to say that in the way that we are seeing them as a tool for market access, others are seeing it as a tool for market access too," said NITI Aayog vice chairman Suman Bery.
Long-term bonds are cheap now; patient investors may gain big, says Rahul Goswami of Franklin Templeton
Rate cuts are off the table, inflation is creeping up, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a wildcard. In a candid interview with ET Wealth’s Kayezad E. Adajania, Rahul Goswami of Franklin Templeton, sees a clear opportunity in long-dated bonds for investors who can stomach near-term volatility.
India’s current account deficit may rise to 2% of GDP in FY27 if oil stays at $82–87: CRISIL
Rising oil prices could push India's current account deficit to a concerning two percent of GDP, as highlighted by a Crisil report. This prediction hinges on the volatile global market conditions we’re currently facing. While US tariff reductions may bolster exports to some extent, the ongoing unrest in West Asia is another pivotal aspect that could affect the situation.
India's trade gap may widen in FY27 amid global and oil risks: Report
India's trade deficit narrowed in March, but this improvement may not last. Experts warn of a widening deficit in the coming months. Factors like external shocks, slowing global demand, and import pressures are expected to impact trade. Exports face challenges due to weak global demand. The current account deficit is projected to widen.
China surpasses US as India's largest trading partner in FY26; trade gap swells to USD 112.16 bn
India's trade with China reached USD 151.1 billion in 2025-26, making it the largest partner. The trade deficit with China widened significantly. The US was previously the top partner for four years. India's exports to China saw substantial growth, while imports also increased. Trade with the US showed marginal export growth and increased imports, leading to a reduced trade surplus.
Post-war climate change: As the world witnesses accelerated US decline, can India not get caught flat-footed?
The West Asian war is set to accelerate America's decline and China's ascent. Europe may look up to the US no more. Nations will prioritise energy security, moving away from fossil fuels. The dollar's dominance is likely to weaken. A new blockchain-based currency, 'Bancor', could emerge, offering an alternative to dollar hegemony. China will bolster its electric technology leadership. India stands to benefit from escaping dollar sanctions.
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ETMarkets Smart Talk| Financials, consumer discretionary, metals to drive FY27 growth: Rahul Bhuskute
Despite a volatile start to FY27 driven by geopolitical risks, oil price swings, and rate uncertainty, the outlook for Indian equities remains positive. Rahul Bhuskute of Bharti AXA Life Insurance expects near-term volatility and range-bound markets, but sees sector-led opportunities in financials, consumer discretionary, and metals supporting growth.
Crisil warns of potential hit to India remittances amid West Asia conflict
India's remittance flow faces potential impact from the West Asia conflict. A third of diaspora inflows originate from Gulf Cooperation Council countries. A reduction in diaspora incomes could affect India's current account deficit. This comes at a time when the trade deficit is already under pressure. India is the world's largest beneficiary of remittances.
RBI GDP outlook FY26: India retains FY26 GDP at 7.6%, sets FY27 growth at 6.9% as Iran war, oil risks mount
RBI GDP Growth 2026: India's economic growth forecast for FY27 is now projected to slow down. The Reserve Bank of India has maintained its FY26 growth estimate but anticipates a more subdued expansion in the following year. Rising oil prices and global geopolitical tensions are key concerns. These factors could impact inflation, currency stability, and overall economic momentum.
Morgan Stanley cuts India’s FY27 growth outlook to 6.2% amid Gulf conflict
Morgan Stanley has reduced India's growth forecast for FY27 to 6.2 percent. This adjustment stems from supply disruptions and rising costs linked to the Gulf conflict. Inflation is now expected to reach 5.1 percent, and the current account deficit may widen to 2.5 percent of GDP. Sectors like pharmaceuticals and textiles face margin pressures.
Apple's upcoming foldable and iPhone 18 Pro Max dummy images leaked; Check iPhone 18 series hand-on size look
Apple foldable images leaked: Popular Apple tipster Sonny Dickson has shared exclusive dummy units giving the first real-world look at the final sizes of Apple’s upcoming iPhone Fold, iPhone 18 Pro, and iPhone 18 Pro Max. The images, showing a distinctive pink/magenta finish, offer a clear idea of the foldable’s book-style design and the Pro models’ dimensions.
Iran's Gulf attacks put India’s money flowing engine into one of the toughest tests
India's essential remittance inflows are confronting an extraordinary obstacle. The intensifying turmoil in West Asia is fueling anxiety among millions of Indians working abroad. This turbulence could drastically reduce the money transferred home, potentially weakening India's financial standing. Analysts express concern over a looming decrease in remittances, with potential repercussions for the current account and currency health.
RBI pause now, tightening later: A delicate trade-off with rising tail risks
India's economy faces testing times from rising oil prices and global uncertainty. While growth is solid, it is uneven and vulnerable. Inflation is moderating but fragile. The Reserve Bank of India anticipates a cautious approach to interest rates. Deeper reforms and sharper policy focus are crucial for sustained growth amidst evolving global challenges.
Canada targets 32,000 skilled workers for Foreign Credential Recognition in 2026-27
Canada's Foreign Credential Recognition Program aims to establish 58 agreements by 2026-27, targeting 32,000 internationally trained professionals, primarily in healthcare and construction. The initiative includes federal funding for partner organizations, FCR loans up to $30,000, and a new $97 million Action Fund to improve recognition processes. These measures support skilled newcomers' integration into the Canadian labor market.
Gold imports rise by nearly 29% to $69 bn in Apr-Feb 2025-26
India's gold imports saw a significant rise of 28.73 percent, reaching USD 69 billion in the first eleven months of fiscal 2025-26. This surge, attributed to elevated gold prices, has contributed to a wider trade deficit. Switzerland remains the primary source for these imports. The increased gold imports also impact the country's current account deficit.
Q4 impact: Bank stocks slump up to 32% in 3 months, but brokerages bet on SBI, HDFC Bank, 6 more stocks. Check why
Banking stocks have slumped up to 32% over three months, underperforming the Nifty amid FII outflows, rising oil prices and rate concerns. Brokerages remain selective, backing SBI, ICICI Bank and others despite margin pressure. Q4 results and FY27 outlook will be key triggers for the sector’s recovery.
Breaking the pattern: A downcycle without macro stress?
India’s latest market downturn is unusual because stock prices have corrected sharply despite a resilient macro backdrop. Unlike past cycles marked by fiscal weakness, high NPAs, or external stress, key indicators remain stable. This divergence suggests the potential for a faster, V-shaped recovery, creating selective opportunities for high-conviction investors.
ICRA expects India's GDP growth to moderate to 6.5% in FY27 amid West Asia conflict
India's economic growth is projected to slow down to 6.5 percent in fiscal year 2026-27. This moderation is attributed to rising energy prices and supply concerns stemming from the West Asia conflict. The current account deficit is expected to widen. Inflationary pressures may increase, impacting consumer sentiment.
Every $10 rise in crude may add 60 bps to India's inflation: CareEdge Global
Rising crude oil prices due to West Asian tensions could significantly push up India's inflation by 55-60 basis points per $10 barrel increase in FY27. This could also widen the current account deficit and pressure the Indian rupee, though strong domestic demand and policy flexibility offer some resilience.
Rs 9 lakh cr wiped out! Sensex crashes 1,600 points, Nifty below 22,350: 7 factors behind today's D-St bloodbath
Indian stock markets experienced a significant crash on Monday, with Sensex and Nifty dropping over 2% each. This downturn was fueled by escalating US-Iran war tensions, a sharp rally in oil prices, and the Reserve Bank of India's new curbs on bank FX positions. Global markets also saw substantial declines, contributing to the risk-off sentiment.
Finance Ministry flags rising external risks as trade deficit and CAD expand
India's economy faces growing external pressures. Trade dynamics are weakening, with imports surging and exports declining. This widens the trade deficit significantly. Capital flows are negative due to global uncertainty. Rising crude oil prices add further strain. These factors are impacting the Indian Rupee.
Israel-Iran war: Remittances, rupee at risk; fiscal strain may rise, warns SBI Funds Management report
India faces economic challenges due to the West Asia conflict. Remittances from the Gulf may decline, impacting overseas Indians. Higher crude oil prices could widen the current account deficit. The Indian rupee might weaken further. Government finances could be strained by rising subsidy costs, particularly for fertilizers. These factors signal potential pressure on India's external sector and financial markets.
Rupee's steep fall: Are India's macro fundamentals strong enough to withstand global shocks?
India's economic growth remains strong despite a weakening rupee. This decline is not supported by the country's macro fundamentals. The article explores potential solutions, including targeted bond offerings and alternative payment systems. It suggests that a multipolar world order and collaboration among nations can help support regional currencies and reclaim space on the global stage.
ETMarkets Smart Talk| Healthcare, infra, financials look attractive after recent market fall: Sachin Bajaj, CIO, Axis Max Life Insurance
Markets are volatile due to geopolitical events and rising crude oil prices. Sachin Bajaj, CIO at Axis Max Life Insurance, sees opportunities in healthcare, infrastructure, and financials. He advises investors to stay invested in quality assets. India's growth story remains intact despite short-term uncertainties. Elevated commodity prices could impact corporate earnings and margins.
RBI's policy battle amid oil shock, rupee pressure to be complex as many challenges ahead: Report
The Reserve Bank of India faces a complex policy challenge amid rising energy prices, with trade-offs between inflation, growth, liquidity and currency stability, according to an Emkay Global Financial Services report.
Nifty Bank cracks 3% to 11-month low as SBI, HDFC & Union Bank tumble. More pain ahead?
The Nifty Bank index slumped over 3% to an 11-month low as selling hit major lenders, including State Bank of India and HDFC Bank. A weaker rupee, persistent FII outflows and geopolitical tensions kept sentiment bearish, with analysts warning that volatility and downside risks may persist.
Middle East war likely to trigger global inflation shock; India relatively insulated: SBI Research
A growing Middle East conflict poses a risk of fresh global inflation. SBI Research reports that supply chains and asset classes could be affected. However, India's economy may face limited impact. Diversified crude oil imports and policy measures are expected to cushion the effects. Remittances from Gulf countries and crude oil prices remain key considerations for India.
Rupee caught in perfect storm: Is 100 per dollar looking more certain than ever amid Iran war?
The Indian rupee is facing a significant downturn, exacerbated by rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict. Analysts suggest the currency could weaken to around 95 against the US dollar, with a move towards 100 being a tail risk in a severe escalation scenario.
India’s growth looks strong on paper, but demand tells another story
The recent rebasing of India's GDP has ignited a lively discussion among economists. Although official statistics indicate a boost in genuine growth, the use of a low deflator raises concerns regarding the veracity of manufacturing data and overall GDP growth. Experts warn that we may be looking at an inflated growth narrative.
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