Pakistan's stock markets rally: KSE-100 jumps 4,000 points on hopes for new US-Iran peace talks. What lies ahead?

Pakistan’s stock markets rallied on Tuesday, with the benchmark KSE 100 surging nearly 4,000 points in early trade amid renewed hopes of fresh talks between Iran and the United States. The optimism follows an earlier round of negotiations—brokered by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Asim Munir—that failed to produce a peace agreement.

Reports claimed that the US continued to engage with Iran to make a peace deal even as it blocked the latter’s ports after the collapse of ceasefire talks over the weekend. Iran and the US have left the door open to dialogue, and a US official said there was forward momentum toward an agreement, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. US President Donald Trump meanwhile said that his administration received a call from Iran who is now eager to negotiate after the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said that "they'd like to make a deal very badly." He reiterated that the primary sticking point in the negotiations remains Iran’s nuclear ambitions, asserting that "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon”.

As a result, Brent crude futures declined nearly 2% to trade at $97.5 per barrel, while WTI Crude futures dropped more than 2% to $97 per barrel on Tuesday morning. The cooling oil prices and rising hopes for peace talks boosted global markets.

Massive ups and downs in Pakistan's stock markets

Pakistan’s stock markets have witnessed sharp volatility in recent sessions. The KSE 100 surged over 12,000 points on Wednesday last week—its biggest intraday gain in absolute terms—after news of a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran eased geopolitical tensions and boosted investor sentiment. Despite the spike, the index ended the week down more than 1%.

The index then plunged over 6,000 points in the previous session after peace talks collapsed over the weekend. However, it has partially recovered some of those losses in today’s trade.

Notably, Jefferies’ top global equity strategist Christopher Wood, known as an India bull, recently said he views Pakistan as a high-beta opportunity tied to support from the IMF, while remaining marginally positive on India over the long term. He argued that although India has vastly outperformed Pakistan for decades, Pakistan’s equity market tends to deliver outsized returns when IMF bailout programmes help restore macroeconomic stability.

Back on Dalal Street...

Back home in India, stock markets remain closed on Tuesday on account of Dr B. R. Ambedkar Jayanti. NSE and BSE will remain shut for trading today. The country’s largest non-agricultural commodity exchange, the Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), will be closed in the morning session but will resume trading in the evening session between 5 pm and 11:30 pm.

Meanwhile, the largest agricultural bourse, the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), will also be closed in both sessions. Trading will resume on Wednesday, April 15. GIFT Nifty meanwhile surged 223 points (0.93%) to 24,100, as seen at 11:20 am.

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