Groww, world’s most expensive broking stock, to face earnings test today after doubling from IPO price

Billionbrains Garage Ventures, the discount broker that operates as Groww, is set to report quarterly earnings on Monday, with investors seeking evidence that its fundamentals justify a valuation that has made it the world’s most expensive brokerage stock. Shares have rallied 29% year-to-date, hitting fresh highs last week, and were trading 1% higher ahead of the results.

The expected numbers are strong. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg estimate net income doubled to Rs 6.6 billion in the three months through March from a year earlier, a figure that will nonetheless face scrutiny against a valuation now at 43 times one-year forward earnings. That multiple surpasses Robinhood Markets, Interactive Brokers, and local peer Angel One among brokerages with market capitalisations above $2 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

"Groww is well positioned to outpace industry growth," BofA Securities analyst Madhur Sharma wrote, pointing to its focus on new-to-investing customers and rising product adoption among existing users. BofA initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 235, forecasting 30% annual revenue growth through March 2028.

That optimism rests on Groww's operational momentum. The company's market share climbed to 28.3% in FY26, up from 26.26% a year earlier, even as retail trading volumes on the National Stock Exchange slowed, a sign the platform is taking share rather than simply riding a wave. Groww now counts roughly 13 million active clients, making it India's largest broker by that measure.

The March quarter itself should have been a favorable one operationally. Jefferies analysts led by Supratim Datta flagged Groww among their preferred picks in non-lending financial firms, noting the company should benefit from a surge in cash and options orders as market volatility spiked during the period.

Beyond broking, investors will closely track progress on Groww’s push into wealth management and consumer lending. Bank of America argues that this diversification justifies a roughly 70% valuation premium to traditional broking and wealth peers. Sharma sees scope for further re-rating as the company expands margins and builds a credible wealth management franchise.

Near-term risks, however, are real. BofA has flagged uncertainty around a potential regulatory crackdown on options trading, sensitivity to market cycles, and the upcoming expiry of a six-month lock-in period in May, which could trigger selling pressure from early investors.

Groww rose to prominence on the back of India’s retail investing boom, as millions of first-time investors poured money into equity derivatives and monthly mutual fund plans. Whether Monday’s numbers confirm the durability of this growth story, or expose a gap between expectations and execution, will set the tone for a stock with little room for error.