Oil Price Today (April 14): Crude oil drops below $100 on renewed hopes for Iran-US peace talks. What lies ahead?

Iran and the US have left the door open to dialogue, and a US official said there was forward motion on trying to reach an agreement, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. US President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said that his administration received a call from Iran, which is now eager to negotiate after the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said that "they'd like to make a deal very badly." He reiterated that the primary sticking point in the negotiations remains Iran’s nuclear ambitions, asserting that "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon”.

Oil prices today

As a result, Brent crude futures declined nearly 2% to trade at $97.52 per barrel, while WTI Crude futures dropped more than 2% to $97.08 per barrel, as seen at 7.20 am IST. Oil prices crossed the crucial $100 mark in March after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and have sustained for the majority of the time over that level since then.

The oil prices had dropped below the $100 level earlier this month after Pakistan managed to broker peace talks between Iran and the US, triggering hopes for an end to the raging war that has been rattling global markets and wiping out investors' wealth. However, the peace talks collapsed over the weekend, with Iran and US leaders announcing that they could not reach a deal. As a result, oil prices spiked on Monday, with Brent crude surging well above $100 per barrel.

Speaking on the failed peace talks held during the weekend, Trump said, "We agreed to a lot of things, but they didn't agree to that, and I think they will agree to it. I'm almost sure of it. In fact, I am sure of it." When asked if his previous threat that "a whole civilisation will die" still stands in case the ceasefire expires without a deal, the President declined to elaborate further. "I don't want to comment on that, but it won't be pleasant for them. Let me put it that way," he responded.

Calm before the storm?

Despite the renewed optimism, some caution is warranted. This is not the first time oil prices have cooled down before a major rally, as Trump is notorious for his decision flip-flops. Additionally, the leaders of the two countries have yet to confirm whether they will continue to hold peace talks, but instead spoke of further military aggression.

HSBC Holdings Chair Brendan Nelson said on Tuesday that a Middle East peace deal was essential to ensure a substantial resumption of global energy flows, with oil-driven inflation looming as a major risk to the world economy.

"The longer the disruption continues, the more the indirect effects from higher energy costs will lift inflation and depress growth," Nelson said. ANZ analysts estimate that about 10 million barrels per day of crude supply have been effectively removed from the market, adding that a prolonged U.S. blockade could curb an additional 3 million to 4 million barrels per day.

Brokerage firm Macquarie noted that even if tensions ease, oil prices are likely to stay supported in the $85 to $90 range, with a gradual move towards $110 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise. It added that if disruptions extend through April, Brent could still rise to $150 per barrel.

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