Global sugar market supply deficit to grow sharply, analyst says

NEW YORK: The global sugar market supply deficit, or the gap between production and demand, was projected on Tuesday to grow to 6.28 million tons, 3 million tons more than a previous estimate, according to market analyst Green Pool Commodities.

The analyst blamed poor production in major sugar-making regions like Brazil, India and the European Union for the revised outlook, as global agriculture struggles to cope with impacts from the El Niño weather anomaly.

"Center-south Brazil harvest is now falling far short of early forecasts, with excess rainfall due to the ongoing El Niño event (hurting the crop)," the Australia-based sugar industry analyst said.

A late September sugarcane crush in Brazil was again short of normal levels due to rain, it said, taking cumulative sugar production in the world's largest exporter to be 14% lower than the year-earlier period.

Green Pool cut its estimate for center-south Brazil sugar production by 600,000 tons to 37.3 million tons.

It reduced its view for EU sugar production by 228,000 tons to 12.44 million tons due to hot, dry weather in the European summer.

"Further downside is possible," it said.

The Indian government's decision to start processing the new crop earlier to deal with low local supplies will result in lost yields, as the cane was not yet at its optimal point to be cut and crushed, Green Pool said.

It estimated lost production of 300,000 to 400,000 tons as a result.

"We have also factored in the disappointing final month of the monsoon, which remained well below usual in Maharashtra and Karnataka, to the point where water supply from reservoirs for agricultural use is likely to be restricted," it said.

Raw sugar prices hit a 19-month high last week at 21.29 cents a pound amid the negative production outlook.