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AgenciesA projection published by SRF indicated about 45% of voters were in favour of the proposal and 55% against.
The probable rejection showed a majority of voters had prioritised economic stability and the country's ties to the European Union over concerns that immigration is stretching public services, pushing up rents and fuelling crime.
The referendum, which was likened to Britain's 2016 Brexit vote, had put businesses on edge due to concerns it could lead to the end of free movement of labour between the Switzerland and the EU, its main trading partner.
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The proposal championed by the right-wing Swiss People's Party stipulated that the population must not exceed 10 million before 2050, and that if it did so for two years, Switzerland should scrap its freedom of movement accord with the EU.
The Swiss population already stands at 9.1 million and has grown far more quickly than in the surrounding EU. Foreigners make up nearly 28% of the Swiss population, which official projections forecast will reach 10 million by the early 2040s.
Polls had forecast a close outcome, and the result tallied with a final survey by pollsters GFS Bern, which had predicted the proposal would be narrowly rejected.
Still, the substantial backing for the measure sits alongside growing support for policies aimed at curbing immigration across Europe. Campaign posters proclaimed only 10% of incomers were skilled workers and that asylum seekers were more likely to be rapists.
Opponents dubbed the plan a recipe for chaos because of the upheaval it would cause for Swiss companies, workers and Bern's ties with the EU.
They also questioned whether it was wise to clash with Brussels after a bruising 2025, when President Donald Trump slapped the highest U.S. tariffs in Europe on Swiss goods.
Patrick Leisibach, a migration expert at think tank Avenir Suisse, said the economic arguments had played a role, with people wary of how a "yes" vote would affect their daily lives.
"They wonder 'who is going to serve me at the restaurant?' and 'who is going to care for me when I get old?' It's more about personal welfare which made people reject this initiative," Leisibach said.
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