Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide stock market action on Monday

The Indian stock market rallied sharply on Friday, with Sensex and Nifty gaining 2% each, as increasing hopes of Iran and the US concluding their much-awaited peace deal over the weekend, easing crude oil prices and improving global sentiment, lifted investor confidence. Sensex surged over 1,695 points to close at 75,527.95, while Nifty 50 jumped over 461 points to end the session at 23,622.90. The rally added around Rs 10 lakh crore to the combined market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies, taking the total market value to around Rs 462 lakh crore.

"Indian equities may witness an uptrend next week as easing concerns surrounding the US-Iran conflict improve global risk sentiment. Reports indicating that negotiations between the two nations are nearing completion have reduced fears of prolonged disruptions to global crude oil supplies, pushing oil prices below the $90 per barrel mark. The sharp market recovery suggests that investors are beginning to price in a more favourable geopolitical outcome. While a formal agreement remains pending, the moderation in crude oil prices and appreciation in the rupee to 94.9 against the US dollar have improved the near-term outlook for domestic equities. Markets witnessed a sharp upmove on Friday, supported by optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement and the subsequent decline in crude oil prices," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Here's how analysts read the market pulse:

“The Nifty gained 2% to close at 23,622, while the Bank Nifty surged 3%, reflecting strong buying interest in financial stocks. Broader markets outperformed, with the Midcap100 and Smallcap100 indices advancing 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively. Sectorally, all major sectors ended in the green, with Realty, Private Banks and Public Sector Banks emerging as the top gainers. Meanwhile, India VIX declined 5.7%, indicating easing volatility and improving investor confidence,” Khemka said.

“Nifty Index witnessed a strong recovery, forming a bullish candlestick on the daily chart, while the weekly chart is also shaping up positively. The index has rebounded sharply from the crucial support zone of 23,075 and reclaimed its 20-DMA, indicating strengthening momentum. RSI has also entered a bullish crossover, supporting the positive bias,” said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

US Stocks

U.S. stocks rose on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal and SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO debut. Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained, with small caps hitting records. SpaceX surged 19%, while other space stocks fell. Investors now focus on the Fed policy outlook, inflation risks and IPO valuations amid mixed fund flows and tech correction signals.

European markets

European markets ended higher on Friday, with the STOXX 600 rising 1.88% as sentiment improved on easing geopolitical tensions. The ECB raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years to curb inflation. Data showed inflation accelerated in France and Spain, while Britain’s economy contracted 0.1% in April, signalling mixed economic conditions across the region.

Tech view

The bullish undertone is expected to persist as long as Nifty holds above the 23,500–23,450 support zone, said Vatsal Bhuva. “On the upside, the index may gradually move towards the 24,000 mark; however, the 23,750–23,820 zone remains an immediate hurdle. A decisive close above 23,820 would further strengthen the bullish outlook. Positional support is placed near 23,200,” he added.

Most active stocks in terms of turnover

HDFC Bank (Rs 2,759 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 2,445 crore), Aegis Logistics (Rs 2,315 crore), Netweb Technologies (Rs 1,962 crore), IFCI (Rs 1,935 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs 1,531 crore) and Vodafone Idea (Rs 1,375 crore) were among the most active stocks on NSE in value terms. Higher activity in a counter in value terms can help identify the counters with the highest trading turnovers of the day.

Most active stocks in volume terms

Vodafone Idea (traded shares: 93.04 crore), IFCI (traded shares: 24.05 crore), Ola Electric (traded shares: 19.06 crore), Yes Bank (traded shares: 8.73 crore), Zee Entertainment Enterprises (traded shares: 8.67 crore), MMTC (traded shares: 8.6 crore) and JP Power (traded shares: 7.81 crore) were among the most actively traded stocks in volume terms on NSE.

Stocks showing buying interest

IFCI, Authum Investment, Tata Teleservices, Ashok Leyland, Netweb Technologies, Aegis Vopak Terminals and Inox Wind were among the stocks that witnessed strong buying interest from market participants.

52-week high

Among the ones that hit their 52-week highs on NSE included IFCI, Bank of Maharashtra, Apar Industries, Caplin Point, Sai Life Sciences, J&K Bank and Akums Drugs.

Stocks seeing selling pressure

Stocks that witnessed significant selling pressure were Nestle India, Oil India, ONGC, Tech Mahindra, OneSource Specialty, Premier Energies and Inox India.

52-week low

Among the ones that hit their 52-week lows on NSE included SBI Life, Apollo Hospitals, Indian Bank, Sumitomo Chemical, LTIMindtree, GSK Pharma and JK Cement.

Sentiment meter favours bulls

Out of the 3,390 stocks that traded on the NSE on June 12, Friday, 2,739 stocks advanced, 564 declined, while 87 remained unchanged.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)